Why, you might ask, would I do such a thing when I knew how bad of a matchup this was? Furthermore, what caused me to pick the Chargers to win by TWO TOUCHDOWNS when I knew all this? The answer, as always, is that I wanted to believe San Diego would win, and win convincingly. I wanted them to win because I needed them to win. They presented the toughest opponent for the hated Colts to play. They represented my best chance to win my fantasy football league, as I have (had) Phillip Rivers and Vincent Jackson on my team. Somewhere inside of me I needed San Diego to survive, so I picked them to survive by two touchdowns. Then I watched as New York did exactly what I said they would do: dismantle the Chargers, hang in there, and beat them.
And so, for this week, I have decided that the only thing to do is to push onward with my picks. I'm 2-6 this year. A losing playoffs is ensured at this point. But I still have my pride. This weekend we get one game we wanted (New Orleans hosting Minnesota) and one game we didn't (the underdog Jets heading into Indianapolis). The lines in Las Vegas indicate that the Jets are dogs by right around eight points, while the Vikings are dogs by around four and a half points. The New York - Indy line doesn't surprise me much, but I am surprised that New Orleans is favored by that much. Did nobody pay attention to what Minnesota did to Dallas last week?
Anyway, lines aside, here is a breakdown of each of the key areas in these games, and then a pick on who will win. I will break each area down from the team that is the best in that area to the team that is the worst. Each team will get 4 points for an area they are ranked 1st, 3 for 2nd, 2 for 3rd and 1 for 4th.
QBs - Indianapolis, New Orleans, Minnesota, NY Jets
This week we get three top notch, MVP caliber quarterbacks ... and then there is Mark Sanchez. As for the top three, it is a bit difficult to determine who is "number one." The easy answer is Peyton Manning, he of the four MVP awards, the most recent Super Bowl win, and all that jazz. But if you look a bit closer you are reminded that Manning just isn't that good when it comes to playoff time. He struggled mightily in the 2006 playoffs, when he backed in to a championship. He threw two interceptions within six plays last week (although one was called back due to defensive pass interference), and he has a tendency to melt under pressure. All that said, he also has shown a knack these past two years for finding ways to win, and that has to be worth something.
As for Brees and Favre, the tie breaker is twofold: Favre's age, and his penchant in the past for throwing untimely interceptions. He hasn't done it yet this year, but the man is 40 and has made a career out of it. It's gotta happen sometime.
Running Game - NY Jets, Minnesota, New Orleans, Indianapolis
The Jets have two serviceable running backs, and a dominate run blocking offensive line. The Vikings aren't far behind, but Peterson fumbles at inopportune times, and hasn't looked great the second half of the season; he ran for over 100 yards only three times this year, and only once since week 6. New Orleans has a three headed attack (at least) featuring Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush and Mike Bell, and has had decent success running the ball. Indianapolis has struggled running the ball all year, and even with Kris Jenkins out this trend should continue.
Passing Game - New Orleans, Indianapolis, Minnesota, NY Jets
I separated QBs from the passing game because leadership and calling a game should make that position weigh heavier than the others. from a strictly passing game perspective, nobody does more than New Orleans. They have all types of different formations, hot routes, and more depth than anyone. If Colston or Shockey don't kill you Henderson or Meachem will. Brees is a master at spreading the ball around, and pressure from the front four shouldn't bother him too much with his ability to unload the ball quickly and to audible.
I went back and forth on Indy and Minnesota a few times, but even though the Vikes have roughly the same talent level in their receiving corps (Rice, Berrian, Shiancoe, Taylor, Peterson to Wayne, Collie, Clark, Garcon and Addai), Manning is just better at operating the offense than Favre is. The Jets are just praying that they don't have to throw anything other than off of a play action.
Offensive Line - Minnesota, NY Jets, Indianapolis, New Orleans
None of these teams have a big issue here, so this was a difficult category to break down. Still, it is impossible to overlook what Minnesota's offensive line did with Dallas' vaunted pass rush last week, so they get the top spot. Watching D'Brickashaw Ferguson handle Shawne Merriman last week was also impressive, and the Jets run block better than any of these other teams. Indy doesn't have a great offensive line, but they are in sink with Peyton which counts for a ton. New Orleans has had some injury issues, which puts them at the bottom.
Defense - NY Jets, Minnesota, Indianapolis, New Orleans
Based on last week none of these teams have issues here either, but when you look a bit closer there are some areas that begin to show. The Jets are vulnerable to the run with Jenkins out, but are the cream of this crop. Minnesota, when health, is capable of dominating a game (just as Tony Romo). Indy has a defense based on speed over size, and that leaves them very vulnerable to teams which run right up the gut. New Orleans looked great last week, but has had some issues in the last half of the year. Still, with Jabari Greer healthy last week they looked like a different team.
Special Teams - New Orleans, NY Jets, Minnesota, Indianapolis
Reggie Bush showed last week how much of a game changer he can be, and the Jets (whether lucky or not) have had five straight missed field goals against them. Minnesota has Percy Harvin, and Indianapolis has an old kicker who has replaced an injured old kicker.
Coaching - New Orleans, NY Jets, Indianapolis, Minnesota
There are two tiers here: the haves (New Orleans and New York) and the have nots (Indy and the Viqueens). Sean Payton is the best remaining coach; he does more than any other coach in terms of clock management and adjusting the game plan on the fly. Rex Ryan isn't far behind, and his players believe in him and feed into his passion. These two are far ahead of their counterparts, the cadaver (Jim Caldwell) and the guy you would never leave your children with (Brad Childress). Now, I must say, I have no evidence that Caldwell is actually dead (other than the fact he stands on the sideline, on camera, and doesn't even blink, let alone move). Furthermore, I have no evidence that Childress is sketchy to leave one's children around (other than that beard). But all joking aside, Caldwell wins this battle because while we haven't seen him move, motivate his team, or ... well, do anything, we have seen Brad blow the big one year after year. Coaching genius he is not. If I had to put money on which coach would:
A) - mismanage the clock
B) - waste his team's time outs
C) - challenge a play that clearly has no chance of being overturned
D) - try to pull Brett Favre in the 3rd quarter of the game to save him for next week's Pro Bowl
I would wager on Childress in each instance. God Help Minnesota here.
Karma - New Orleans, New York, Indianapolis, Minnesota
Does Karma exist? Because, if it does, there are some very clearly drawn lines this weekend. New Orleans should get the benefit of the doubt because of Katrina, and let me tell you first hand that this team has done an incredible job helping that community out. They deserve it. Behind them is New York, because the Jets have seemingly been cursed and had all kinds of bad luck for decades. Behind them is Indy, because they THREW A GAME to the Jets, allowing New York to even make the playoffs, and intentionally losing to blow a perfect season. When your fans are booing you, when your QB looks like he wants to strangle you, you just know it isn't good. Furthermore, it just isn't good karma to throw your team under the bus on nearly every play that goes wrong like Mr. Manning does. But the real winner of the karma sweepstakes is Minnesota ... because karma just doesn't like it when you retire, then unretire, then retire again just so that your team will release you, just so you can unretire just to stick it to the franchise and the fan base that loved you for so long.
The Totals: New Orleans (23) New York (22) Minnesota (18) Indianapolis (17)
So ... what does that all mean? It clearly means we are headed to a New Orleans v New York Super Bowl. And, despite the fact that I really tried hard to be unbiased in my analysis, I think it also must mean that I ... undervalued Peyton Manning. That's how I'll word it. So, just remember, I thought New York had more going for it, even though my picks will be the following:
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - NY Jets at Indianapolis Colts
The Jets are not a great matchup for Indy, but are they as bad as they were for San Diego? Well, let's look at the areas we looked at for last week's game:
Running Games:
San Diego was 31st in the league in running offense. The only team that was worse? Indianapolis. The Colts, while averaging 8 yard per game fewer than San Diego, did average .2 yards per carry more. But, still, 3.5 yards per carry isn't that great, and it's not a good way to take advantage of the Jets biggest defensive weakness. New York, on the other hand, was the number one rushing offense in the NFL, at 172.3 yards per game.
As for rushing defense, the Chargers rushing defense ranked 20th in the NFL allowing 117.6 yards per game. The Colts? 24th at 126.5 yards per game allowed. For what it's worth, even after the injury to DT Kris Jenkins the Jets finished 8th in the NFL in rushing defense, allowing 98.6 yards per game. So far this matchup looks even better for the Jets than last week.
Passing Games:
San Diego was 5th in the NFL in passing yards per game, while the Colts are 2nd. (To a certain Texan who laughed at me when I mentioned the Jets shutting down the Texans, saying they didn't count, I would just like to point out that Houston ranked number one in the NFL in passing offense
In passing defense, the Jets ranked first by quite a bit, as the following numbers illustrate:
Opponent's Completion Percentage: 51.7% (next best was 54.4%, Colts allowed 63.8% and San Diego 61%)
Passing Yards Allowed: 2,459 yards (next best was 2,948!!!)
Yards Per Attempt: 5.4 (next best was 6.0)
Passing TDs Allowed: 8 ... yes, only 8 in 16 games. (next best was 14)
Opponent QB Rating: 58.8 (next best was 61.1)
So the Jets were the best in each of these areas, and generally by quite a bit.
I don't know what all that means. I do believe in the power of momentum, as well as karma coming around to bite you in the rear. But it is so hard for me to believe that the Colts aren't going to crush the Jets, then crush whoever comes next. They just seem like the team of destiny this year, and if karma was going to bite them wouldn't it have happened last round? It sure seems as if it would have.
I also know what it's like to just not believe in a team and bet against them every week. I picked against the Cardinals every week last year, only getting it right in the Super Bowl. I've picked against the Jets twice, and twice they've proven me wrong. So if I pick the Jets will the lose to spite me? I don't know. But here is what I do know. The Jets will win this game if they do the following:
- Avoid giving up the big play (they are good at this)
- Control time of possession by pounding the run at a weak center of the Colts defensive line (they are good at this)
- Minimize the plays Mark Sanchez has to make, but put him in the position to succeed with play action plays called in favorable down and distance situations (again, they have shown they can be good at this the last few weeks)
- Keep the game close, allowing the pressure to build on Peyton and the Colts (they are experts at this)
- Use exotic blitz schemes to keep Peyton guessing, and to occasionally put him on his back (they can do this)
So close your eyes with me and imagine the following: 4th quarter, Jets up 17 to 13, three minutes left. The Indianapolis crowd has been quieter than normal because they just feel it happening again. The Colts face a 3rd and 9, knowing if they don't convert and have to punt it may be the game because the Jets have been running the ball so effectively. Jim Caldwell blew a stupid time out in the 3rd quarter, and Peyton Manning threw an interception trying to force the ball to Dallas Clark on the last possession. The crowd rises to its feet, Manning steps to the line...
Now you're telling me that just because Manning has become the expert at winning in those situations in the regular season I'm supposed to believe that a lifetime of big game experiences of coming short won't creep into his mind? That those fans won't be on the verge of booing, blaming the Colts for even allowing the Jets to make the playoffs? The number one rule in a horror movie is that you can't allow the villain to survive when you get the chance to off him. Now the Colts are facing that villain, and that villain has all the momentum. I know Colts fans, and I know that they will be prepared for the self destruction in that moment. And I believe that the Jets can get to that moment. What I can't believe is that I talked myself in to this...
THE PICK: Jets 20 - Colts 16
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
This game, for me, is much more simple. Can the Vikings play the game of their lives for a second straight week? Can their defensive line dominate the way they did last week again? Even if they do, will Brees melt under pressure like Romo did? I just don't think that the following things can happen again:
- The aforementioned Vikings defense, which we can't forget gave up 36 points to the freaking Chicago Bears last month in a must win game, playing to perfection for a second straight week
- Brett Favre being error proof again, this time in a dome that is yelling at inopportune times
- Adrian Peterson avoiding the killer fumble again
Above all else, Sean Payton won't make the same coaching errors Wade Phillips did (such as attempting long field goals with inconsistent kickers when field position is the name of the game). Minnesota looked great last week. New Orleans looked like they were on a mission...
THE PICK: Saints 38 Vikings 17
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