I, admittedly, put more stock in Pawlenty's chances because he looked presidential. He looked youthful. And he had the opportunity to trick people into thinking that he had led a state successfully for two terms. But Pawlenty had quite a bit going against him as well:
-he was not going to stir up the masses (a la Bachmann)
-he was not going to have millions to spend ... er, waste (a la Romney)
-he did not have the name recognition (a la Gingrich, Giuliani)
No, the problem with Tim Pawlenty was just that: he was Tim Pawlenty, he came from Minnesota, and nobody really cared about him. He just doesn't register with the general public, and he never was going to. Give the man credit for stepping aside this early in the process, and not wasting any more money, although I'm sure that the straw poll had less to do with it than Rick Perry's announcement did. Perry is like a Pawlenty doppelganger, only slightly more dynamic on the mic.
As for now, anyone who says that they are shocked by Bachmann looking strong in Iowa needs to have their political acumen examined. Iowa is all about organization and extremism, on both sides of the political isle. Obama was able to take the caucus because he was that much more organized than Hillary, and he was not "mainstream" at that point. Iowa relishes "being first," and they equally relish telling the rest of the nation "you'll take this candidate and you'll love them!"
Still, it is interesting the Pawlenty decided to drop now, when the two candidates ahead of him were the crazy Michelle Bachmann and the equally crazy, but somehow more stable Ron Paul. Neither of these candidates are going to win the White House. Romney, smartly, decided not to contest the straw poll. Maybe that was Tim Paw's big error: he should have just kept his ball and stayed home. But the reality of the field is this: Romney will be strong, and the number one contender to go against him will probably need to win Iowa to have a shot. Rick Perry will kick his campaign into high gear in Iowa because he understands this fact. Romney has done well, thus far, to stay out of the fray. It behooves him to do so, because he can allow all his opponents to tear at each other, if they are dumb enough to ignore him. Obama was able to do this, to a point, in the early primary process in 2008. He allowed all the "also-rans" (most notably John Edwards) to take on Hillary, and he just looked better as a result. Romney would be smart to attempt the same once over on the Republican field, which is undoubtedly one of the reasons he's not trying hard for Iowa.
And so, unless something shocking occurs, the likely early game for the nomination will go something like this:
- Bachmann (or Perry) will take Iowa
- Romney will take New Hampshire
- South Carolina becomes a blood bath
If I was Mitt Romney I'd be trying to put my resources, as quietly as possible, into South Carolina. Rick Perry has, by default with Pawlenty's exit, become the "hey, that guy seems presidential" candidate. At this point, in August of 2011, it appears the race has solidified around three candidates: Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, and Mitt Romney. There are a number of other candidates that could make some noise, but none who seem dynamic enough at this point to stop the wheels that are in motion. Somehow, even as Obama seems weaker by the day, his position becomes stronger by the moment.
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