Uninspiring: An Updated Presidential Handicapping

A month ago I wrote this, labeling the favorites in the Republican field, and breaking down the "legit" candidates a bit. Well, quite a bit has happened since then. So we'll look at it again, both in terms of likelihood to win the nomination, and also to topple a weak El Presidente. Without any further delay, so you can get your bets in with the best information available (all candidates, again, listed by politico:

The "I Don't Have a Prayer, But I Sure Hope This Raises My Street Cred" Group

This group all comes in at less than 1% of a chance to win the nomination, as well as to take down B.H. Obama. What do they have in common? Obama would be tap dancing if they got the nod. In order from least likely to most likely:

- Buddy Roemer (still ... uh, who?) - 10,000 to 1 for the nomination; 50,000 to 1 to beat Obama
- Gary Johnson (not looking promising in Johnson world) - 10,000 to 1 for the nomination; 50,000 to 1 to beat Obama
-Ron Paul (say what you will, but at least this man has principles he stands on) - 9,000 to 1 to win the nomination; 60,000 to 1 to beat Obama
- Chris Christie (Still not looking good in his own backyard) - 9,000 to 1 for the nomination; 45,000 to 1 to beat Obama; 3 to 1 to be a one term governor
- Herman Cain (mmmm.... pizza) 8,000 to 1 for the nomination; 60,000 to 1 to beat Obama; 1 to 1 to make a killer pizza I wish I was eating right now.

"It's a Long Shot, But, Really, Who Truly Wants This Nomination?"

This group has the distinction of one former real player, plus some others who have distinguished themselves from the "also-ran" group a month ago.

- Newt Gingrich (Mr. "Honesty doesn't always pay") - 1,000 to 1 for the nomination; 10,000 to 1 to beat Obama; 1 to 2 to not even carry one state
- Rick Santorum (Saw him on MTP ... he's crazy) - 500 to 1 for the nomination; 1,000 to 1 to beat Obama; 2 to 1 to be involved in some Christian Terrorism event.
- Rick Perry (not even in the race yet, by the way) - 250 to 1 for the nomination; 1,000 to 1 to beat Obama; 3 to 1 to call Dubya for advice
- Sarah Palin (also not in the race yet) - 250 to 1 for the nomination; 10,000 to 1 to beat Obama; 4 to 1 to have a new reality show by 2012
- Others Not Yet Named (A.K.A. "the field") - 125 to 1 for the nomination; 500 to 1 to beat Obama; smart bet is to hedge this bet with the Romney-Bachmann super team

"Wait, WHO IS SURGING?" or "It's The End of The World as We Know It"

- Jon Huntsman (the dark horse Mormon) - 100 to 1 for the nomination; 250 to 1 to beat Obama; 10 to 1 to win the nomination, select Romney as his VeeP, and thus create a Mormon super team
- Rudi Guliani (Not in the race, but polling well) - 100 to 1 for the nomination; 250 to 1 to beat Obama; 10 to 1 to not declare until California this time, and wonder why he lost again
- Michele Bachmann (no ... seriously) - 50 to 1 for the nomination; 5,000 to 1 to beat Obama; even money to make people realize she's the more dangerous, charismatic Sarah Palin

"The Favorites"

- Mitt Romney (the leading Mormon) - 25 to 1 for the nomination; 50 to 1 to beat Obama; 3 to 1 to flip flop on universal healthcare more than 10,000 times during this election cycle
- Tim Pawlenty (the bland sacrificial lamb) - 20 to 1 for the nomination; 75 to 1 to beat Obama; 4 to 1 to be undone sometime in the future by a sex scandal (no information, just a hunch based on the way things seem to be going. Is it sad that we are more likely to lose a politician to sending pictures of his Weiner than we are for embezzling money? I vote yes).
- Barack Obama (El Presidente) - 1 to 500 for the Democratic nomination; 10 to 1 to beat himself; 1 to 10 to be giggling that, as the most vulnerable incumbent since Carter (if not before) he is running in a year when the Republicans, thus far, have only been able to drum up the aforementioned people.


So there you have it folks. Bet wisely.