Tuesday, February 8, 2011
A Captivating, And Sad, Read
I will pass this along without any real comment. This article made me think of quite a few things, and it puts things in perspective. Hard to believe how much can change in twenty five years.
Sunday, February 6, 2011
The Super Bowl: Running Diary
Coming to you late, after the first Green Bay TD. As with the past few years, here comes a live commentary on the Super Bowl. This year we get to have good (Pittsburgh) versus evil (Green Bay). Again. (Chicago v Indianapolis and New Orleans v Indianapolis being the two most recent good v evil games).
7:05PM - Tough choice: ESPN's 30 for 30 on Michael Jordan's baseball career, or the Super Bowl which very well might lead to me having to watch Green Bay hoist a trophy. Just keeping a running list of the ways in which I've been hit in the stomach since 2000 is painful: Red Sox, White Sox, Cardinals, Colts, Kobe, Purdue becoming relevant, IU basketball falling apart ... that's just off the top of my head.
7:07PM - Deep throw from Big Ben, pick six. Can't have a TAINT in a game like this. Flag is on the field, but it's unsportsmanlike after the play. Not looking good for the forces of good this week. In related news, my brother finally came fully out of the sports closet, announcing his love this week for all things Green Bay, St. Louis, USC, Michigan, Indianapolis and also having a deep passion for NASCAR. It was a sad day in our family's history; we are all asking ourselves where we went wrong. I might need Robin Williams to hold me and tell me it's not my fault to get over this one.
7:10PM - Okay, 3:20 left in the first quarter, down two TDs, Green Bay has all the momentum. A documentary on Michael Jordan playing baseball is sounding pretty damn good right now. A couple of thoughts on the demise of the Bears this year, you know, while I'm ignoring this game:
- Jay Cutler could have played through the pain, and Lovie should have had Todd Collins inactive before he had him as the number two QB. I've heard the argument that it was Martz call, but I've got to remind you that Lovie is (supposedly) the head coach. It was his call, and yet another in a long list of reasons why he is terrible at his job.
- The defense really has Aaron Rodgers' number, a good sign for the future, if you believe that an aging defense can hold it together.
- We need 5 new starters on the offensive line. Not one of those guys is NFL quality, at least not starter quality.
7:13PM - Pittsburgh just keeps killing itself with penalties. Flozell Adams and Bryant McFadden are out with injuries. Not looking good. Funny that Pittsburgh's offensive line, as banged up as it is, is handling Green Bay better than Chicago did. Big Ben looks hurt after slipping. This could be a short running diary.
7:15PM - "Bad knee and all" Joe Buck says as Ben runs for a first down. If Big Ben were Jay Cutler he would already be on his way to the team hotel right now. First quarter is over, and the game is looking over. Back to Michael Jordan.
7:18PM - I've got to say, Go Daddy is always a big let down. Every year they show the commercial that promises more, and it never delivers. But, on the bright side, we have brownies.
7:20PM - Big third down conversion again for Pittsburgh. They need a touch down right here to stay in this game, particularly because Green Bay gets the ball to start the second half. Still, Baltimore was up the same amount this postseason and Pittsburgh won that one.
7:22PM - Sanders injured, gets us a Randel El sighting. Nick Collins makes a great tackle, and Pittsburgh has to settle for the field goal. Their best defense right now might be to finish Aaron Rodgers off the same way that the Bears finished off Favre. Drive him right into the turf.
7:25PM - Already starting to get a steady stream of texts from Colts fans talking crap. There really is no end to the ways in which Colts fans suck. Also, Joe Buck doing this game makes it ten times worse. In related news, my brother just held a press conference announcing his love for all things Peyton Manning.
7:30PM - I've been watching The Office lately, and I have to agree with the numbers of people who endorse the show. It's good, light comedy that keeps you thinking, but also makes you laugh. I'm up to season five right now, and it hasn't really fallen off at all, although I do see how it is running out of original plot.
7:33PM - The Volkswagen commercial with the little kid dressed up as Darth Vader makes me think of my brother. I wonder if there is still good left in him, or if all is lost. In news related to this game, Rashard Mendenhal doesn't seem to be containable, but the Steelers just keep shooting themselves in the foot with stupid penalties. The Packers are just plain hitting harder than the Steelers.
7:36PM - If I were Pittsburgh at this point I keep running it down Green Bay's throat. The Packers are doing well with coverage down field. By the way, Big Ben is absolutely showing you what a QB should do in a big game: gut it out. Why are we getting Mwelde Moore instead of Mendenhal? Another big third down (how many times will we say that today? Depends on how long Pittsburgh keeps the dream alive). WHAT A THROW by Ben to Randel El. Insane
7:39PM - It was nice of the officials to overlook that facemask on Green Bay. It's good to know you can tackle a player by grabbing his facemask again. 2nd and 11, and a timeout by Pittsburgh. Good timeout. It's essential that Pittsburgh regain momentum on this drive.
7:41PM - How many championships do you think the Bulls would have won if MJ had never retired? I think they would have won in 1999 easily (strike shortened year would have helped) and probably in 1995 if he had been there, in shape, the whole year. 1994 is the one I can't figure out. The best Knicks team of the era, as well as a really good Rockets team.
7:42PM - INT Green Bay. Not. Looking. Good.
7:43PM - At all.
7:45PM - Just when it seemed that the momentum was swinging back Pittsburgh's way, Green Bay just takes it over again. Pittsburgh needs a huge defensive play here. Someone needs to take Aaron Rodgers out of this game. Soon. TD Green Bay. By the way, that last INT would have been called off on a pass interference if Peyton Manning had been the QB who made the throw. Just saying.
7:48PM - If Pittsburgh doesn't score a TD before the end of the half this running diary might be as dead as my hopes of Green Bay losing. Another big catch by Randel El. Very nice.
7:52PM - Just for fun, let's recap my least favorite teams in all the sports I follow, and then look at what they've done recently:
- NFL: Packers and Colts - Both knocked my Bears out on the way to (what looks like) Super Bowl wins.
- MLB: Cardinals and White Sox - World Series wins in back to back years
- NBA: Pistons and Pacers - Pistons win it all; Pacers at least didn't get all the way there
- NHL: Redwings - Yeah, they've won it once or twice
- College Basketball - Purdue and Illinois - both have become more relevant than the more legendary Hoosiers basketball program
so, yeah, it hasn't exactly been a great period of time in my life as a sports fan.
7:54PM - Another tipped ball, nearly picked. Ugh. This game is a nightmare. I'm not even sure why I'm still watching it. Probably out of a real sense of depression that this might be the last football game for over one year. Big hit on Big Ben.
7:56PM - I should also mention that in College Football I can't stand Ohio State or Texas, both of which have been very prominent and have won national titles in recent history. TD Hines Ward. At least there is some life left in this team, but even the 39 seconds they left on the clock scares me at this point. That's how bad Pittsburgh's defense has been playing. What do you think the odds are in Vegas of Pittsburgh onside kicking to start the second half? You know, since that happened last year. How crazy was that play in hindsight? Even crazier than it was in the moment. What a gutsy call.
7:59PM - If I'm Green Bay I go for the jugular right now. That's a big difference between me and most of the coaches in the NFL. But they do have the ball to start the second half. Who knows. Pittsburgh's TD at the end of the half will keep me interested for the second half.
8:04PM - Okay, so watching the replays remind me that Pittsburgh really needs to run the ball up the gut, not to the outside. Bill Simmons, live from the game, tweets "how funny would it be if Ben suffered a partially torn MCL + kept playing?" Hilarious Bill. Hilarious. Bill also notes that the Steelers aren't getting any calls, which is fair, although on my end I have to admit that I have been having a harder time than usual watching the game while typing, so I am not able to accurately describe whatever is going on with the calls.
8:09PM - I'm really in shock that Fergie is still a member of the Black-Eyed Peas. I thought that ship had sailed. Here we go. Can't be worse than The Who's corpses playing last year.
8:10PM - Okay, one minute in and I take back my previous statement. Give me The Who's corpses. Please. Interesting that they didn't let any fans on the field for the show this year. Can't ever remember them not having a crowd on the field before. I'm getting very confused by this show. I can only imagine what my parents are thinking. Or my grandparents for that matter. Am I getting too old for "pop culture" already?
8:13PM - And now, a surprise appearance by Slash, from Guns n Roses. That was cool for a minute, and then Fergie started singing. And now I'm breaking down and crying. Seriously. Guns n Roses would have been a better choice here.
8:15PM - I'm thinking that they were going for a spaceship motif this year. Which is either stupid or horribly ironic, given the fact that Jerry's dome looks like a spaceship from the outside (I've heard). Now they are dropping Usher in from the ceiling. Wow. That's what real talent looks like. Seriously, the Black Eyed Peas were so bad they had to import real talent to spice it up. Hilarious.
8:17PM - This half time has been so silly that my mind is almost 100% off the game. Next guest star for the halftime show? I'm betting a famous Cowboy, or Peyton Manning. Anything to take the attention off the Black Eyed Peas. Fergie is actually just yelling at this point, not even singing.
8:20PM - I can't wait until Lady Gaga does the Super Bowl next year. I'm only half kidding. And ... thank God it's over. But it was like a trainwreck: I couldn't stop watching.
8:25PM - ESPN is now showing their 30 for 30 about the Red Sox comeback in 2004. Maybe a good sign for Pittsburgh?
8:30PM - I always love, in a game like this, when the announces try to talk themselves into the game actually being a game. Right now they are talking about how the Ward TD was a huge momentum shift. Woodson being out will help Pittsburgh a bit, if their D can step it up.
8:32PM - Wait ... what? A penalty on Green Bay? That can't be ... I'm confused. I thought we had agreed to only call penalties on Pittsburgh. I'm going to have to check on this.
8:33PM - Pittsburgh also has Sanders out, and they are missing tackles. Tomlin lit into the Steelers at the half. That's what a good coach does. Somewhere Ditka is nodding in agreement. False start on Green Bay. What? Did the Black Eyed Peas possess the officiating crew?
8:35PM - Pittsburgh has got to close on tackles better; right now Green Bay is just running around them, getting all kinds of extra yards. Poor tackling just made it 3rd and 5 instead of much longer. Holy Crap the Steelers just got lucky with that drop by James Jones. Great throw, terrible catch. Wow. Flag down after the punt ... personal foul for a facemask that did not really happen. Make up call for earlier, so we'll call it even.
8:37PM - If I were to make a top ten list of ideas that should have been dropped when a prominent person left said idea, American Idol continuing after Simon left would have to be up there. Great run up the right side by Mendenhal, but then he's slow to get up. Ugh.
8:40PM - If Pittsburgh can get a TD here this game is very much in play. Anything less makes it that much more difficult. Nice run up the left side by Redmond. Run the ball Pittsburgh, run the ball.
8:42PM - TD right up the gut. Pittsburgh can run all day on this defense. They have just got to avoid shooting themselves in the foot again. It's a game again though. Now it's the time for Pittsburgh's defense to step it up. Am I the only person who thought the last Pirates of the Caribbean movie was, um, the last Pirates of the Caribbean movie?
8:45PM - Nelson looks like he is only going to get to the ten, then gets to the 20. And now into the Super Bowl facts: no team has ever come back from more than 10 down to win a super bowl. Pittsburgh trailed by 18. Records are made to be broken, right? Boy the Steelers fans are loud right now. Good run up the gut by Green Bay. Steelers fans are making up about half of the crowd and Packers only about a quarter according to Bill Simmons.
8:48PM - Incomplete over the middle on 2nd down. Pittsburgh needs a big sack of Aaron Rodgers, just to let him know that he can be hit too. 3rd and 7 ... big play ... SACK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! James Harrison!!!!!!!!!!!!! Huge play. Pittsburgh has the momentum now. Run the ball boys. Dangerous field of the punt by the Steelers, but they hold on and have the ball.
8:50PM - Other things my brother has decided to root for: global warming, Communist China, Barry Bonds and the Iranian Nuclear program. Not looking like a strong 2011 for him.
8:52PM - Pittsburgh's screens, which usually are uber-effective, have not been great today. Mike Wallace has been awful quiet today as well. 3rd and 1 for Pittsburgh after a run and a screen. Ball near midfield. Pittsburgh has to blow a huge timeout. My brother texts that he is also against cancer research. I'm going to start calling him Darth. Nice run to the right by Moore. Whew.
8:55PM - Big Ben overthrows a wide open Mike Wallace. Dang. That would have been a huge play, particularly because Green Bay bit on the play action so hard. Bummer. 2nd and 10 now ... Hines Ward picks up a first down over the middle. Good pump fake by Big Ben.
8:57PM - Wow ... Clay Matthews almost batted the ball in the air, then picked it off. Not a good play call. Why is Pittsburgh suddenly hell-bent on passing the ball, right after running it all day on Green Bay the last drive? Come on Steelers ... Miller dropped for a loss after another pass by Big Ben. This is insane.
8:59PM - 3rd and 13 ... Sacked, out of field goal range. Terrible play calling by Pittsburgh on that drive. The drive before you run it right down their throats for a TD, and this time you drop back all but the first play? Wow ... they are going for a 52 yard field goal. WAY OFF. Stupid call. Absolutely a Lovie Smith type call. You have to pooch punt that and let your D have the long field. You're only down 4.
9:01PM - Okay, let me get this straight. Chrysler literally just ran a commercial with Eminem. The rapper. I'm glad I bought a Ford.
9:02PM - Pack with great field position. And they throw deep. And now they are in Pittsburgh territory. Pittsburgh's decision to kick the field goal was yet another stupid mistake, and it switched momentum entirely. Timmons makes a good play for a loss of 3.
9:04PM - Packers now have 3rd down and eight, just inside the forty. And I just had to plug my laptop in. Not bad battery life at all. 3rd and 8 ... Steelers time out. They had better get a stop after wasting that timeout as well. This is the Super Bowl and they have only one timeout left in the second half. Seriously, did Lovie Smith possess Mike Tomlin? Can we get someone down to the sideline to perform an exorcism? Dubya is qualified. Please?
9:06PM - Here we go ... Polamalu just missed an interception. Green Bay will punt rather than risk giving Pittsburgh good field position. See, that's how you do it Lovie possessed Mike Tomlin. In other news, Joe Buck thinks all the momentum is going for Pittsburgh. Did he miss that field goal attempt? Is he blind? Or is he about to tell me that stupid is as stupid does? Now the Steelers run it.
9:08PM - Pittsburgh has, thus far, been incapable of putting two good halves together this postseason. They were awful in the first half against Baltimore and the second half against New York, and were good in the opposing halfs. They were awful in the first half today, and are winning this half thus far. Time will tell if it is going to bite them in the rear finally, but it's interesting to note. Ben overthrows Wallace again, and Pittsburgh must punt, with poor field position. Momentum Joe Buck? I'll take your momentum and raise you field position. This is where Aaron Rodgers kills you, especially if this becomes a stupid penalty on Pittsburgh ... but it is going to go against Green Bay instead. What a moron, hitting the Steeler in the head like that. Field position just got switched.
9:10PM - As we get to the end of the 3rd quarter, one still has to wonder if Pittsburgh is in the process of killing themselves, but they are undeniably still in this game. Rodgers looks a little off on that throw, going just behind the receiver. Pittsburgh needs to keep field position here, they can't allow Green Bay to flip the field. 2nd and 10 for Green Bay ... good pressure by Pittsburgh. 3rd and 10 ... RULED INCOMPLETE. Wow. I bet we are going to get a challenge here. This is a huge play, and a huge call. The ruling on the field being incomplete is huge here, but here comes the challenge flag. Walt Anderson has his mic on for a few minutes. That was almost really entertaining. Looks like it could go either way to me, but I disagree that it was a down by contact under any interpretation. I agree with the challenge, because this is a big moment for field position. The entire FOX booth of brilliant minds says that the call will stand. That doesn't bode well for the call standing.
9:16PM - And the ruling is ... confirmed! Nice. I'd go after this punt here, trying to block it. But I'm uber aggressive in my play calling. 4 punts by Green Bay in the 3rd quarter. Looks like Pittsburgh's defense figured something out. Penalty flag thrown back at the line of scrimmage. This is another tough call as to whether to re-punt or to add the 5 yards on to the end of the run. It was a good return, but Pittsburgh chooses to re-kick. We'll see if this works out ... Pittsburgh gets better field position. Can't believe Brown didn't signal a fair catch there, but he didn't. Good field postion makes this a must score drive.
9:20PM - Time for one play before the end of the quarter, and Mendenhal runs tough to the right side, out of bounds. Enter the fourth quarter. Joe Buck says "Superbowl 45 is going to come down to the final quarter." Joe, has a Superbowl ever not come down to the 4th quarter? Have they ever just stopped after 3 quarters and called it a game? It makes more sense to say "will be close heading into the fourth quarter," right?
9:25PM - And there was the big Mendenhal fumble everyone was talking about before this game. Wow. Backbreaker there. Now Green Bay has a chance to essentially finish Pittsburgh. First pass incomplete. Pittsburgh has to hold right here if they want to keep the dream alive. Good tackle by Polamalu. Pittsburgh now has 3 turnovers, plus the defacto fourth turnover on that terrible field goal attempt. 3rd and 7 ... Green Bay hurries to the line quickly. Good non challenge. If Pittsburgh can hold Green Bay to a field goal they are alive, but if they hold them without scoring field position stinks. No win situation right now Steelers fans.
9:28PM - "Nelson drops another." I can't hear that enough tonight. Big 3rd and 10 here. Can Pittsburgh get pressure on Rodgers? No; Nelson turns up field, and Green Bay is knocking on the door of the endzone. Mendenhal's inability to take care of the ball probably just cost Pittsburgh a Super Bowl. Big sack, but probably too little too late.
9:30PM - Touch Down Green Bay. That, sports fans, is probably the game. You can't expect to shoot yourselves in the foot that many times and still win. Poor execution by Pittsburgh is going to let the lesser team win. Too bad.
9:35PM - Tom Brady won his second MVP award today, the first in NFL history to be won unanimously. At least I was right that he wasn't done. I got one thing right. The way this game is going a lockout doesn't sound so bad...
9:37PM - Bowser states that he didn't know that Cutler was traded to Pittsburgh for today's game. Amen. He also states that he could never root for Green Bay. That's because he's a true Bears fan.
9:39PM - This is shaping up like a game that will make me need to play Madden football all night to work off the angst. I don't know what will be worse if the Packers win: them winning, or Mike McCarthy becoming a Super Bowl calibur coach. Another hold, but this one wasn't even close to being a hold. Terrible call. Another screen goes nowhere. Ugh.
9:41PM - Big pick up on 2nd and 18 leaves a manageable 3rd and 3. A big play here, as a TD is pretty essential to regain any momentum. TD WALLACE! Still a game. Man, if only Pittsburgh hadn't decided to turn the ball over three times they would have killed this Packers team today. Instead, they will probably lose. Can't beat yourself. Interesting choice going for two. Shotgun formation. Big play. PITCH TO RANDEL EL. HOOSIERS BABY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
9:43PM - Again, I have to remind you that there is NOTHING MORE TO SEE on the GoDaddy website. They lie to you. They just try to sell you on their product.
9:45PM - If you were in the Dallas stadium right now would you be watching the field or the huge TV. I feel like you'd be watching the TV. Pittsburgh is going to need some stellar defense right about now. In other news, Pittsburgh just moved this game into a push. Vegas is sweating right now.
9:47PM - That was a pretty impressive blitz that Pittsburgh unleashed, but they are going to need plenty more like that if they are going to get back in this game. 2nd down, empty backfield for Green Bay; pick up of nine. It seems to me that Pittsburgh can't matchup against five receivers. 3rd and 5 ... false start for Green Bay. Pittsburgh's fans have really shown up for this game. Green Bay has called 37 passes to 9 runs to this point. Third and ten now ... Damn. Great play to Jennings. He got right by the bump and that was what made that play. Green Bay has Pittsburgh looking done now.
9:53PM - Pittsburgh has dominated this game; Time of possession, yards, everything except turnovers. Pittsburgh needs a turnover now. Having blown two timeouts earlier is also a killer at this point. Green Bay is acting like they own this defense right now. Yet another easy first down via pass.
9:55PM - At least Pittsburgh kept it interesting enough for me to finish this running diary. I'm sure the millions of my fans would have been crushed if they hadn't. 2nd and goal ... from the seven ... down to the five, third and goal. If I'm Green Bay I'm tossing it into the end zone here. Go for the outright win. Incomplete, and here comes the field goal. Nelson has as many drops as he's had big catchs today. Chip shot for Mason Crosby ... dead red. 2:07 left, one timeout, Pittsburgh down six. Even as bad of a game as he's had, this is the thing that legends are made of for Big Ben.
9:59PM - After it all, can Pittsburgh really overcome their own mistakes to win this game? Can we avoid Green Bay joining the ever growing list of teams I hate winning? The drive will start much further back because of yet another Pittsburgh mistake. A personal foul will move this drive's starting position all the way back. One timeout, and coming off yet another mistake. Man Pittsburgh has killed themselves in this game. They've got nobody to blame but themselves. In other news, "Terra.Nova" looks like a show that I would like, but will be canceled after half a season. Get back to me if they make it to season three.
10:03PM - Starting at the 13 instead of the 27, here comes an empty backfield. Heath Miller picks up the first down. Next play ... short completion, but lots of time is running off the clock. already down to 1:16 ... thrown away. Here comes the third down play ... huge overthrow.
10:05PM - Well, Steelers fans, here it is. Fourth and five. One play left. 56 seconds. They break the huddle with an empty backfield. Incompletion on what should have been a pass interference. But I get why the refs don't throw the flag; you never want to make that call if you're the ref. And so, signing off, Green Bay Sucks.
7:05PM - Tough choice: ESPN's 30 for 30 on Michael Jordan's baseball career, or the Super Bowl which very well might lead to me having to watch Green Bay hoist a trophy. Just keeping a running list of the ways in which I've been hit in the stomach since 2000 is painful: Red Sox, White Sox, Cardinals, Colts, Kobe, Purdue becoming relevant, IU basketball falling apart ... that's just off the top of my head.
7:07PM - Deep throw from Big Ben, pick six. Can't have a TAINT in a game like this. Flag is on the field, but it's unsportsmanlike after the play. Not looking good for the forces of good this week. In related news, my brother finally came fully out of the sports closet, announcing his love this week for all things Green Bay, St. Louis, USC, Michigan, Indianapolis and also having a deep passion for NASCAR. It was a sad day in our family's history; we are all asking ourselves where we went wrong. I might need Robin Williams to hold me and tell me it's not my fault to get over this one.
7:10PM - Okay, 3:20 left in the first quarter, down two TDs, Green Bay has all the momentum. A documentary on Michael Jordan playing baseball is sounding pretty damn good right now. A couple of thoughts on the demise of the Bears this year, you know, while I'm ignoring this game:
- Jay Cutler could have played through the pain, and Lovie should have had Todd Collins inactive before he had him as the number two QB. I've heard the argument that it was Martz call, but I've got to remind you that Lovie is (supposedly) the head coach. It was his call, and yet another in a long list of reasons why he is terrible at his job.
- The defense really has Aaron Rodgers' number, a good sign for the future, if you believe that an aging defense can hold it together.
- We need 5 new starters on the offensive line. Not one of those guys is NFL quality, at least not starter quality.
7:13PM - Pittsburgh just keeps killing itself with penalties. Flozell Adams and Bryant McFadden are out with injuries. Not looking good. Funny that Pittsburgh's offensive line, as banged up as it is, is handling Green Bay better than Chicago did. Big Ben looks hurt after slipping. This could be a short running diary.
7:15PM - "Bad knee and all" Joe Buck says as Ben runs for a first down. If Big Ben were Jay Cutler he would already be on his way to the team hotel right now. First quarter is over, and the game is looking over. Back to Michael Jordan.
7:18PM - I've got to say, Go Daddy is always a big let down. Every year they show the commercial that promises more, and it never delivers. But, on the bright side, we have brownies.
7:20PM - Big third down conversion again for Pittsburgh. They need a touch down right here to stay in this game, particularly because Green Bay gets the ball to start the second half. Still, Baltimore was up the same amount this postseason and Pittsburgh won that one.
7:22PM - Sanders injured, gets us a Randel El sighting. Nick Collins makes a great tackle, and Pittsburgh has to settle for the field goal. Their best defense right now might be to finish Aaron Rodgers off the same way that the Bears finished off Favre. Drive him right into the turf.
7:25PM - Already starting to get a steady stream of texts from Colts fans talking crap. There really is no end to the ways in which Colts fans suck. Also, Joe Buck doing this game makes it ten times worse. In related news, my brother just held a press conference announcing his love for all things Peyton Manning.
7:30PM - I've been watching The Office lately, and I have to agree with the numbers of people who endorse the show. It's good, light comedy that keeps you thinking, but also makes you laugh. I'm up to season five right now, and it hasn't really fallen off at all, although I do see how it is running out of original plot.
7:33PM - The Volkswagen commercial with the little kid dressed up as Darth Vader makes me think of my brother. I wonder if there is still good left in him, or if all is lost. In news related to this game, Rashard Mendenhal doesn't seem to be containable, but the Steelers just keep shooting themselves in the foot with stupid penalties. The Packers are just plain hitting harder than the Steelers.
7:36PM - If I were Pittsburgh at this point I keep running it down Green Bay's throat. The Packers are doing well with coverage down field. By the way, Big Ben is absolutely showing you what a QB should do in a big game: gut it out. Why are we getting Mwelde Moore instead of Mendenhal? Another big third down (how many times will we say that today? Depends on how long Pittsburgh keeps the dream alive). WHAT A THROW by Ben to Randel El. Insane
7:39PM - It was nice of the officials to overlook that facemask on Green Bay. It's good to know you can tackle a player by grabbing his facemask again. 2nd and 11, and a timeout by Pittsburgh. Good timeout. It's essential that Pittsburgh regain momentum on this drive.
7:41PM - How many championships do you think the Bulls would have won if MJ had never retired? I think they would have won in 1999 easily (strike shortened year would have helped) and probably in 1995 if he had been there, in shape, the whole year. 1994 is the one I can't figure out. The best Knicks team of the era, as well as a really good Rockets team.
7:42PM - INT Green Bay. Not. Looking. Good.
7:43PM - At all.
7:45PM - Just when it seemed that the momentum was swinging back Pittsburgh's way, Green Bay just takes it over again. Pittsburgh needs a huge defensive play here. Someone needs to take Aaron Rodgers out of this game. Soon. TD Green Bay. By the way, that last INT would have been called off on a pass interference if Peyton Manning had been the QB who made the throw. Just saying.
7:48PM - If Pittsburgh doesn't score a TD before the end of the half this running diary might be as dead as my hopes of Green Bay losing. Another big catch by Randel El. Very nice.
7:52PM - Just for fun, let's recap my least favorite teams in all the sports I follow, and then look at what they've done recently:
- NFL: Packers and Colts - Both knocked my Bears out on the way to (what looks like) Super Bowl wins.
- MLB: Cardinals and White Sox - World Series wins in back to back years
- NBA: Pistons and Pacers - Pistons win it all; Pacers at least didn't get all the way there
- NHL: Redwings - Yeah, they've won it once or twice
- College Basketball - Purdue and Illinois - both have become more relevant than the more legendary Hoosiers basketball program
so, yeah, it hasn't exactly been a great period of time in my life as a sports fan.
7:54PM - Another tipped ball, nearly picked. Ugh. This game is a nightmare. I'm not even sure why I'm still watching it. Probably out of a real sense of depression that this might be the last football game for over one year. Big hit on Big Ben.
7:56PM - I should also mention that in College Football I can't stand Ohio State or Texas, both of which have been very prominent and have won national titles in recent history. TD Hines Ward. At least there is some life left in this team, but even the 39 seconds they left on the clock scares me at this point. That's how bad Pittsburgh's defense has been playing. What do you think the odds are in Vegas of Pittsburgh onside kicking to start the second half? You know, since that happened last year. How crazy was that play in hindsight? Even crazier than it was in the moment. What a gutsy call.
7:59PM - If I'm Green Bay I go for the jugular right now. That's a big difference between me and most of the coaches in the NFL. But they do have the ball to start the second half. Who knows. Pittsburgh's TD at the end of the half will keep me interested for the second half.
8:04PM - Okay, so watching the replays remind me that Pittsburgh really needs to run the ball up the gut, not to the outside. Bill Simmons, live from the game, tweets "how funny would it be if Ben suffered a partially torn MCL + kept playing?" Hilarious Bill. Hilarious. Bill also notes that the Steelers aren't getting any calls, which is fair, although on my end I have to admit that I have been having a harder time than usual watching the game while typing, so I am not able to accurately describe whatever is going on with the calls.
8:09PM - I'm really in shock that Fergie is still a member of the Black-Eyed Peas. I thought that ship had sailed. Here we go. Can't be worse than The Who's corpses playing last year.
8:10PM - Okay, one minute in and I take back my previous statement. Give me The Who's corpses. Please. Interesting that they didn't let any fans on the field for the show this year. Can't ever remember them not having a crowd on the field before. I'm getting very confused by this show. I can only imagine what my parents are thinking. Or my grandparents for that matter. Am I getting too old for "pop culture" already?
8:13PM - And now, a surprise appearance by Slash, from Guns n Roses. That was cool for a minute, and then Fergie started singing. And now I'm breaking down and crying. Seriously. Guns n Roses would have been a better choice here.
8:15PM - I'm thinking that they were going for a spaceship motif this year. Which is either stupid or horribly ironic, given the fact that Jerry's dome looks like a spaceship from the outside (I've heard). Now they are dropping Usher in from the ceiling. Wow. That's what real talent looks like. Seriously, the Black Eyed Peas were so bad they had to import real talent to spice it up. Hilarious.
8:17PM - This half time has been so silly that my mind is almost 100% off the game. Next guest star for the halftime show? I'm betting a famous Cowboy, or Peyton Manning. Anything to take the attention off the Black Eyed Peas. Fergie is actually just yelling at this point, not even singing.
8:20PM - I can't wait until Lady Gaga does the Super Bowl next year. I'm only half kidding. And ... thank God it's over. But it was like a trainwreck: I couldn't stop watching.
8:25PM - ESPN is now showing their 30 for 30 about the Red Sox comeback in 2004. Maybe a good sign for Pittsburgh?
8:30PM - I always love, in a game like this, when the announces try to talk themselves into the game actually being a game. Right now they are talking about how the Ward TD was a huge momentum shift. Woodson being out will help Pittsburgh a bit, if their D can step it up.
8:32PM - Wait ... what? A penalty on Green Bay? That can't be ... I'm confused. I thought we had agreed to only call penalties on Pittsburgh. I'm going to have to check on this.
8:33PM - Pittsburgh also has Sanders out, and they are missing tackles. Tomlin lit into the Steelers at the half. That's what a good coach does. Somewhere Ditka is nodding in agreement. False start on Green Bay. What? Did the Black Eyed Peas possess the officiating crew?
8:35PM - Pittsburgh has got to close on tackles better; right now Green Bay is just running around them, getting all kinds of extra yards. Poor tackling just made it 3rd and 5 instead of much longer. Holy Crap the Steelers just got lucky with that drop by James Jones. Great throw, terrible catch. Wow. Flag down after the punt ... personal foul for a facemask that did not really happen. Make up call for earlier, so we'll call it even.
8:37PM - If I were to make a top ten list of ideas that should have been dropped when a prominent person left said idea, American Idol continuing after Simon left would have to be up there. Great run up the right side by Mendenhal, but then he's slow to get up. Ugh.
8:40PM - If Pittsburgh can get a TD here this game is very much in play. Anything less makes it that much more difficult. Nice run up the left side by Redmond. Run the ball Pittsburgh, run the ball.
8:42PM - TD right up the gut. Pittsburgh can run all day on this defense. They have just got to avoid shooting themselves in the foot again. It's a game again though. Now it's the time for Pittsburgh's defense to step it up. Am I the only person who thought the last Pirates of the Caribbean movie was, um, the last Pirates of the Caribbean movie?
8:45PM - Nelson looks like he is only going to get to the ten, then gets to the 20. And now into the Super Bowl facts: no team has ever come back from more than 10 down to win a super bowl. Pittsburgh trailed by 18. Records are made to be broken, right? Boy the Steelers fans are loud right now. Good run up the gut by Green Bay. Steelers fans are making up about half of the crowd and Packers only about a quarter according to Bill Simmons.
8:48PM - Incomplete over the middle on 2nd down. Pittsburgh needs a big sack of Aaron Rodgers, just to let him know that he can be hit too. 3rd and 7 ... big play ... SACK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! James Harrison!!!!!!!!!!!!! Huge play. Pittsburgh has the momentum now. Run the ball boys. Dangerous field of the punt by the Steelers, but they hold on and have the ball.
8:50PM - Other things my brother has decided to root for: global warming, Communist China, Barry Bonds and the Iranian Nuclear program. Not looking like a strong 2011 for him.
8:52PM - Pittsburgh's screens, which usually are uber-effective, have not been great today. Mike Wallace has been awful quiet today as well. 3rd and 1 for Pittsburgh after a run and a screen. Ball near midfield. Pittsburgh has to blow a huge timeout. My brother texts that he is also against cancer research. I'm going to start calling him Darth. Nice run to the right by Moore. Whew.
8:55PM - Big Ben overthrows a wide open Mike Wallace. Dang. That would have been a huge play, particularly because Green Bay bit on the play action so hard. Bummer. 2nd and 10 now ... Hines Ward picks up a first down over the middle. Good pump fake by Big Ben.
8:57PM - Wow ... Clay Matthews almost batted the ball in the air, then picked it off. Not a good play call. Why is Pittsburgh suddenly hell-bent on passing the ball, right after running it all day on Green Bay the last drive? Come on Steelers ... Miller dropped for a loss after another pass by Big Ben. This is insane.
8:59PM - 3rd and 13 ... Sacked, out of field goal range. Terrible play calling by Pittsburgh on that drive. The drive before you run it right down their throats for a TD, and this time you drop back all but the first play? Wow ... they are going for a 52 yard field goal. WAY OFF. Stupid call. Absolutely a Lovie Smith type call. You have to pooch punt that and let your D have the long field. You're only down 4.
9:01PM - Okay, let me get this straight. Chrysler literally just ran a commercial with Eminem. The rapper. I'm glad I bought a Ford.
9:02PM - Pack with great field position. And they throw deep. And now they are in Pittsburgh territory. Pittsburgh's decision to kick the field goal was yet another stupid mistake, and it switched momentum entirely. Timmons makes a good play for a loss of 3.
9:04PM - Packers now have 3rd down and eight, just inside the forty. And I just had to plug my laptop in. Not bad battery life at all. 3rd and 8 ... Steelers time out. They had better get a stop after wasting that timeout as well. This is the Super Bowl and they have only one timeout left in the second half. Seriously, did Lovie Smith possess Mike Tomlin? Can we get someone down to the sideline to perform an exorcism? Dubya is qualified. Please?
9:06PM - Here we go ... Polamalu just missed an interception. Green Bay will punt rather than risk giving Pittsburgh good field position. See, that's how you do it Lovie possessed Mike Tomlin. In other news, Joe Buck thinks all the momentum is going for Pittsburgh. Did he miss that field goal attempt? Is he blind? Or is he about to tell me that stupid is as stupid does? Now the Steelers run it.
9:08PM - Pittsburgh has, thus far, been incapable of putting two good halves together this postseason. They were awful in the first half against Baltimore and the second half against New York, and were good in the opposing halfs. They were awful in the first half today, and are winning this half thus far. Time will tell if it is going to bite them in the rear finally, but it's interesting to note. Ben overthrows Wallace again, and Pittsburgh must punt, with poor field position. Momentum Joe Buck? I'll take your momentum and raise you field position. This is where Aaron Rodgers kills you, especially if this becomes a stupid penalty on Pittsburgh ... but it is going to go against Green Bay instead. What a moron, hitting the Steeler in the head like that. Field position just got switched.
9:10PM - As we get to the end of the 3rd quarter, one still has to wonder if Pittsburgh is in the process of killing themselves, but they are undeniably still in this game. Rodgers looks a little off on that throw, going just behind the receiver. Pittsburgh needs to keep field position here, they can't allow Green Bay to flip the field. 2nd and 10 for Green Bay ... good pressure by Pittsburgh. 3rd and 10 ... RULED INCOMPLETE. Wow. I bet we are going to get a challenge here. This is a huge play, and a huge call. The ruling on the field being incomplete is huge here, but here comes the challenge flag. Walt Anderson has his mic on for a few minutes. That was almost really entertaining. Looks like it could go either way to me, but I disagree that it was a down by contact under any interpretation. I agree with the challenge, because this is a big moment for field position. The entire FOX booth of brilliant minds says that the call will stand. That doesn't bode well for the call standing.
9:16PM - And the ruling is ... confirmed! Nice. I'd go after this punt here, trying to block it. But I'm uber aggressive in my play calling. 4 punts by Green Bay in the 3rd quarter. Looks like Pittsburgh's defense figured something out. Penalty flag thrown back at the line of scrimmage. This is another tough call as to whether to re-punt or to add the 5 yards on to the end of the run. It was a good return, but Pittsburgh chooses to re-kick. We'll see if this works out ... Pittsburgh gets better field position. Can't believe Brown didn't signal a fair catch there, but he didn't. Good field postion makes this a must score drive.
9:20PM - Time for one play before the end of the quarter, and Mendenhal runs tough to the right side, out of bounds. Enter the fourth quarter. Joe Buck says "Superbowl 45 is going to come down to the final quarter." Joe, has a Superbowl ever not come down to the 4th quarter? Have they ever just stopped after 3 quarters and called it a game? It makes more sense to say "will be close heading into the fourth quarter," right?
9:25PM - And there was the big Mendenhal fumble everyone was talking about before this game. Wow. Backbreaker there. Now Green Bay has a chance to essentially finish Pittsburgh. First pass incomplete. Pittsburgh has to hold right here if they want to keep the dream alive. Good tackle by Polamalu. Pittsburgh now has 3 turnovers, plus the defacto fourth turnover on that terrible field goal attempt. 3rd and 7 ... Green Bay hurries to the line quickly. Good non challenge. If Pittsburgh can hold Green Bay to a field goal they are alive, but if they hold them without scoring field position stinks. No win situation right now Steelers fans.
9:28PM - "Nelson drops another." I can't hear that enough tonight. Big 3rd and 10 here. Can Pittsburgh get pressure on Rodgers? No; Nelson turns up field, and Green Bay is knocking on the door of the endzone. Mendenhal's inability to take care of the ball probably just cost Pittsburgh a Super Bowl. Big sack, but probably too little too late.
9:30PM - Touch Down Green Bay. That, sports fans, is probably the game. You can't expect to shoot yourselves in the foot that many times and still win. Poor execution by Pittsburgh is going to let the lesser team win. Too bad.
9:35PM - Tom Brady won his second MVP award today, the first in NFL history to be won unanimously. At least I was right that he wasn't done. I got one thing right. The way this game is going a lockout doesn't sound so bad...
9:37PM - Bowser states that he didn't know that Cutler was traded to Pittsburgh for today's game. Amen. He also states that he could never root for Green Bay. That's because he's a true Bears fan.
9:39PM - This is shaping up like a game that will make me need to play Madden football all night to work off the angst. I don't know what will be worse if the Packers win: them winning, or Mike McCarthy becoming a Super Bowl calibur coach. Another hold, but this one wasn't even close to being a hold. Terrible call. Another screen goes nowhere. Ugh.
9:41PM - Big pick up on 2nd and 18 leaves a manageable 3rd and 3. A big play here, as a TD is pretty essential to regain any momentum. TD WALLACE! Still a game. Man, if only Pittsburgh hadn't decided to turn the ball over three times they would have killed this Packers team today. Instead, they will probably lose. Can't beat yourself. Interesting choice going for two. Shotgun formation. Big play. PITCH TO RANDEL EL. HOOSIERS BABY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
9:43PM - Again, I have to remind you that there is NOTHING MORE TO SEE on the GoDaddy website. They lie to you. They just try to sell you on their product.
9:45PM - If you were in the Dallas stadium right now would you be watching the field or the huge TV. I feel like you'd be watching the TV. Pittsburgh is going to need some stellar defense right about now. In other news, Pittsburgh just moved this game into a push. Vegas is sweating right now.
9:47PM - That was a pretty impressive blitz that Pittsburgh unleashed, but they are going to need plenty more like that if they are going to get back in this game. 2nd down, empty backfield for Green Bay; pick up of nine. It seems to me that Pittsburgh can't matchup against five receivers. 3rd and 5 ... false start for Green Bay. Pittsburgh's fans have really shown up for this game. Green Bay has called 37 passes to 9 runs to this point. Third and ten now ... Damn. Great play to Jennings. He got right by the bump and that was what made that play. Green Bay has Pittsburgh looking done now.
9:53PM - Pittsburgh has dominated this game; Time of possession, yards, everything except turnovers. Pittsburgh needs a turnover now. Having blown two timeouts earlier is also a killer at this point. Green Bay is acting like they own this defense right now. Yet another easy first down via pass.
9:55PM - At least Pittsburgh kept it interesting enough for me to finish this running diary. I'm sure the millions of my fans would have been crushed if they hadn't. 2nd and goal ... from the seven ... down to the five, third and goal. If I'm Green Bay I'm tossing it into the end zone here. Go for the outright win. Incomplete, and here comes the field goal. Nelson has as many drops as he's had big catchs today. Chip shot for Mason Crosby ... dead red. 2:07 left, one timeout, Pittsburgh down six. Even as bad of a game as he's had, this is the thing that legends are made of for Big Ben.
9:59PM - After it all, can Pittsburgh really overcome their own mistakes to win this game? Can we avoid Green Bay joining the ever growing list of teams I hate winning? The drive will start much further back because of yet another Pittsburgh mistake. A personal foul will move this drive's starting position all the way back. One timeout, and coming off yet another mistake. Man Pittsburgh has killed themselves in this game. They've got nobody to blame but themselves. In other news, "Terra.Nova" looks like a show that I would like, but will be canceled after half a season. Get back to me if they make it to season three.
10:03PM - Starting at the 13 instead of the 27, here comes an empty backfield. Heath Miller picks up the first down. Next play ... short completion, but lots of time is running off the clock. already down to 1:16 ... thrown away. Here comes the third down play ... huge overthrow.
10:05PM - Well, Steelers fans, here it is. Fourth and five. One play left. 56 seconds. They break the huddle with an empty backfield. Incompletion on what should have been a pass interference. But I get why the refs don't throw the flag; you never want to make that call if you're the ref. And so, signing off, Green Bay Sucks.
Super Bowl Sunday
After taking two weeks to digest the latest stink bomb dropped on my heart by Lovie and company, my breakdown of the Superbowl seems very anticlimactic. Still, here it is. Keep in mind that I enter this game with a 12-8 record (combining picks against the spread and straight up). Time to break it down, spot by spot.
Quarterbacks: The edge is tough to define here. In the one corner you have the hottest QB in the NFL today, Aaron Rodgers. In the other corner, a two time Super Bowl champion, Ben Roethlisberger. Both QBs are adept at making plays on the run, out of the pocket, which is good for both teams since neither offensive line is great. At the end of the day I think Rodgers is more banged up than Big Ben, and he certainly didn't look great in the second half against the Bears. Scoring this like a boxing round: Big Ben 10 - Rodgers 9.
Running Games: Not even close here. Green Bay employs a bunch of overrated nobodies, while Pittsburgh has Mendenhal and Moore, as well as Redmond, who can all do well in their respective areas. This might be a bit closer if Ryan Grant were healthy. Steelers 10 - Packers 8
Wide Receivers: This, again, is close. The Packers have a slight edge in supposed number ones, with Jennings being better than the aging (albeit gritty) Hines Ward. But that leaves an advantage for Pittsburgh in Mike Wallace over the aging (and not gritty) Donald Driver. Pittsburgh has young wide receivers who have done well; Green Bay has unheralded wide receivers who make big catches. This comes down to one name, however: Randel El. Edge goes to Pittsburgh based on the super utility Hoosier. Steelers 10 - Packers 9
Tight Ends: Heath Miller trumps it here, only because Finley is out with an injury. Steelers 10 - Packers 9.
Offensive Lines: Pittsburgh was horribly banged up heading into the Championship game; with Pouncey likely out this goes heavily in Green Bay's favor. Even if their line isn't exactly impenetrable, it's much better than Pittsburgh's. Packers 10 - Steelers 7.
Defensive Line: With Aaron Smith out for Pittsburgh they lose some depth, but Green Bay has been beaten up all year. Pittsburgh has the edge in experience, with the ageless Casey Hampton clogging the middle, and Bret Kiesel's beard doing the work of two men at end. But Green Bay has the impact player here: B.J. Raji. Slight edge to the Pack. Packers 10 - Steelers 9.
Linebackers: Clay Matthews and A.J. Hawk are good. But Farrior, Woodley, Harrison and Timmons are other worldly. Pass rushing, dropping into coverage ... Pittsburgh's linebackers as a group are better than Green Bay's linebackers. Steelers 10 - Packers 9.
Secondary: Polamalu being healthy makes this close, but Green Bay has an entire secondary that can make plays. Their corners are just better than Pittsburgh's. Green Bay 10 - Steelers 9
Special Teams: The Packers have one of the worst special teams units in the league, but the Steelers have a kicker who doesn't inspire confidence. This is an ugly draw: Steelers 10 - Packers 10.
Coaching: Now we get down to it: I trust Mike Tomlin more than Mike McCarthy. By a long shot. Pittsburgh also has a better overall coaching staff. McCarthy is much more likely to make a "Lovie Smith Memorial 'Why the HELL did he do that?!?!?!?'" call than Tomlin is. Steelers 10 - Packers 8.
So, adding it up:
Pittsburgh: 95
Green Bay: 92
It should be a close game, but the slight edge goes to Pittsburgh. The line is Green Bay (-3) v Pittsburgh.
The Pick: Pittsburgh (+3) over Green Bay / Pittsburgh 27 Green Bay 21
Until next year (or the year after, lockout pending)...
Quarterbacks: The edge is tough to define here. In the one corner you have the hottest QB in the NFL today, Aaron Rodgers. In the other corner, a two time Super Bowl champion, Ben Roethlisberger. Both QBs are adept at making plays on the run, out of the pocket, which is good for both teams since neither offensive line is great. At the end of the day I think Rodgers is more banged up than Big Ben, and he certainly didn't look great in the second half against the Bears. Scoring this like a boxing round: Big Ben 10 - Rodgers 9.
Running Games: Not even close here. Green Bay employs a bunch of overrated nobodies, while Pittsburgh has Mendenhal and Moore, as well as Redmond, who can all do well in their respective areas. This might be a bit closer if Ryan Grant were healthy. Steelers 10 - Packers 8
Wide Receivers: This, again, is close. The Packers have a slight edge in supposed number ones, with Jennings being better than the aging (albeit gritty) Hines Ward. But that leaves an advantage for Pittsburgh in Mike Wallace over the aging (and not gritty) Donald Driver. Pittsburgh has young wide receivers who have done well; Green Bay has unheralded wide receivers who make big catches. This comes down to one name, however: Randel El. Edge goes to Pittsburgh based on the super utility Hoosier. Steelers 10 - Packers 9
Tight Ends: Heath Miller trumps it here, only because Finley is out with an injury. Steelers 10 - Packers 9.
Offensive Lines: Pittsburgh was horribly banged up heading into the Championship game; with Pouncey likely out this goes heavily in Green Bay's favor. Even if their line isn't exactly impenetrable, it's much better than Pittsburgh's. Packers 10 - Steelers 7.
Defensive Line: With Aaron Smith out for Pittsburgh they lose some depth, but Green Bay has been beaten up all year. Pittsburgh has the edge in experience, with the ageless Casey Hampton clogging the middle, and Bret Kiesel's beard doing the work of two men at end. But Green Bay has the impact player here: B.J. Raji. Slight edge to the Pack. Packers 10 - Steelers 9.
Linebackers: Clay Matthews and A.J. Hawk are good. But Farrior, Woodley, Harrison and Timmons are other worldly. Pass rushing, dropping into coverage ... Pittsburgh's linebackers as a group are better than Green Bay's linebackers. Steelers 10 - Packers 9.
Secondary: Polamalu being healthy makes this close, but Green Bay has an entire secondary that can make plays. Their corners are just better than Pittsburgh's. Green Bay 10 - Steelers 9
Special Teams: The Packers have one of the worst special teams units in the league, but the Steelers have a kicker who doesn't inspire confidence. This is an ugly draw: Steelers 10 - Packers 10.
Coaching: Now we get down to it: I trust Mike Tomlin more than Mike McCarthy. By a long shot. Pittsburgh also has a better overall coaching staff. McCarthy is much more likely to make a "Lovie Smith Memorial 'Why the HELL did he do that?!?!?!?'" call than Tomlin is. Steelers 10 - Packers 8.
So, adding it up:
Pittsburgh: 95
Green Bay: 92
It should be a close game, but the slight edge goes to Pittsburgh. The line is Green Bay (-3) v Pittsburgh.
The Pick: Pittsburgh (+3) over Green Bay / Pittsburgh 27 Green Bay 21
Until next year (or the year after, lockout pending)...
Saturday, January 22, 2011
Two Tickets To Paradise?
Paradise? What is it, and how will we know when we get there? Those are the questions that will be answered tomorrow, in concurrent games. Last week I inverted myself from week one, but still went 5-3 over all, bringing my post season record to 10-6. Let's just say that I'd be making money this postseason ... if gambling were legal. Last week: 2-2 against the spread, 3-1 on the money line. I was perfect heading into Sunday, but Seattle couldn't cover when Chicago decided they wanted to show who was boss, and ... what the heck happened with New England? Wow. So here we are: Championship Sunday. The Bears and the Steelers are hosting their respective title games. Are the sports Gods finally giving me what I deserve, or are they about to stick it to me worse than any time since Bears V Colts?
SUNDAY'S GAMES
3:00 PM EST - Green Bay Packers (-4) at Chicago Bears
The Sports Gods Hate Me: Green Bay has a ton of speed, a ton of talent, and they can rush the passer better than anyone. The Bears, you may or may not have heard, can't block a blind kid on roller skates. Green Bay has the better QB, the better receivers, the better defense ... they should have this game wrapped up if you are listening to the media, all of whom proclaimed the Packers as the golden team at the start of the year. And ... um ... did you see what they did to Atlanta last week? Crap... Oh yeah, and we also had a chance to eliminate them from the playoffs week 17 and didn't, so we are playing them because we didn't finish them off when we had the chance. That's usually not a good sign.
I'm Rewarded For My Dedication: Bears - Saints had a similar feel in 2006: the Bears were given a bad rap heading in due to an inconsistent offense, and they were facing the up and coming dynamite offense in the league. Furthermore, Green Bay shouldn't be able to light it up on Soldier Field's actual football surface like they did on the fast track indoors. The irony of this matchup is that Green Bay, our oldest rival, one of the few teams who know that football is meant to be played like men, out doors, has a team that fits better in a dome. Additional irony? The Bears might fall into that category as well. But for this game it should help the Bears more than hurt them, as it should slow the receivers and pass rush that the Pack used so effectively last week.
Look at this line: the Bears and Pack split the regular season, including a final game that was win or else for Green Bay in which the Bears shut out the Packers offense for 48 MINUTES. But, as I told Bowser last Saturday while Green Bay was decapitating Atlanta: "no way Green Bay isn't the favorite in this game." Still, I'm shocked the line is this high.
The Breakdown: Green Bay has the advantage on the offensive side of the ball by far (the only area you could even give to Chicago would be the running game, if Martz decides to use it). Still, I got the feeling that Chicago tried to beat Green Bay week 17 without using its' offense at all. I think they came in to the game and said "let's see if we can be the Pack, on their field, using our defense and special teams alone." And you know what: we almost did it. On the defensive side of the ball Green Bay was fifth in total yards allow, while Lovie's "Bend and hope you don't break" defense ranked ninth. In points allowed per game the Pack was 2nd (15 flat per game) while the Bears were 4th (17.9 per game). Our special teams are vastly superior to Green Bays, and that will help to determine field position. This is a game that can be had, so long as the Bears do not make critical mistakes. Last week Cutler had two throws where the Seahawks player flat out dropped the interception. Green Bay won't do that; Williams and Woodson are ball hawks in the truest sense of the word, and Matthews, A.J. Hawk and Collins will kill you if you have indecision. Chicago can win this game ... if Jay Cutler can play like Aaron Rogers and not like the ghost of Sexy Rexy has taken over.
How I jinxed the team: I might have told my parents that I would find a way to be in Dallas in two weeks if the circumstances were right. Probably shouldn't have said that.
A final word: How crazy is it that the Bears might actually have the coaching advantage in this game? Mike McCarthy is one of the worst game managers in the league; he calls stupid time outs, doesn't understand the flow of the game, and generally is a bone head. Lovie isn't great, but I feel like he's a tiny bit better here. Still, this game is going to come down to who wants it more, and who forces the other team to make the big mistake.
The Pick: Bears +4 over Green Bay / Chicago 27 - Green Bay 24 (OT)
(That's right, overtime baby. In the word's of then Senator, now President Obama, from Bears - Saints: "It's been a great ride, but the fairy tale ends Sunday at Soldier field." I hope that sentiment rings true this week).
6:30 PM EST - NY Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4)
The Sports Gods Hate Me: I've picked against the Jets two straight weeks, and they've won two straight weeks. Their coach and players have been talking crap, but somehow not getting bad karma for it. Every game is the most important, personal, monumental game in Rex Ryan's life somehow. Mark Sanchez, easily one of the ten worst starting QBs in the NFL today, somehow has won four road playoff games in two year, tying him for the most all time. Pittsburgh also has no offensive line ... at all ... and boatloads of bad karma with the Big Ben. Plus, New York has now taken down the top two QBs of the past decade by most measures (Manning and Brady). Only Big Ben stands in their way of the trifecta of AFC QBs.
I'm Rewarded For My Dedication: Pittsburgh is better coached, has the better QB, the better WRs, and the better defense. Pittsburgh is playing at home, Pittsburgh knows how to win big games. And, as they showed last week, they know how to take a stomach punch (down two TDs to Baltimore at the half) and rebound. They make big plays. Plus my "Deranek - 88" Steelers jersey won them the game last week. It's good luck.
Look at this line: I'm a bit nervous that it's -4 for the Steelers; that means the money and public sentiment is coming down pretty strongly on the Pittsburgh side of the equation. I would have felt quite a bit more comfortable if it was -3, particularly since the Jets already beat Pittsburgh once this year.
The Breakdown: Of course, that defeat was against a Pittsburgh team that was more beat up, and it still barely happened. Pittsburgh has the better defense and the QB you'd want doing a two minute drive with this game on the line. At the end of the day it is just so hard for me to comprehend the Jets, with a QB who can't make throws half the time, winning three straight road games to make it to the Super Bowl. And then there is this: only one team in the history of the NFL has made it to the Super Bowl as a #6 seed. The Jets and Packers are the six seeds in their respective conferences. Is this really going to happen? I can't see it happening at all; Pittsburgh has played sneaky tough all year, and they were my preseason AFC champion. 'Nuff said.
How I jinxed the team: Like I said: Steelers #88 Jersey with Deranek on the back. Great Christmas gift. Not good in the Karma department. Also, if I pick Pittsburgh here I am basically begging the Jets to become this year's version of the Arizona Cardinals: beat my picks three straight weeks into the Super Bowl. Maybe they are peaking at the right time.
A final word: If Rex Ryan manages to get a team QB'd by Mark "Sexy Rexy Clone" Sanchez into the Super Bowl, he would own one of the greatest feats in the history of the NFL. He really has put his best foot forward by taking all the pressure off his team with his crazy antics. It really show that Buddy used to give him a kick in the ass when he was younger. It's amazing to think that this Jets team, which destroyed New England last week, was only able to get by Indianapolis by a foot. (Actually, let's just move this paragraph up to the "how I jinxed the team" category. Damn you Wes Welker).
The Pick: Pittsburgh (-4) over NY Jets / Pittsburgh 20 - New York 13
(Final side note: taking Pittsburgh minus the points is not easy; this game could end up by a field goal very easily. But come on, the dream is still alive, and deeper in the year than at any point in my lifetime. Two tickets to paradise?)
SUNDAY'S GAMES
3:00 PM EST - Green Bay Packers (-4) at Chicago Bears
The Sports Gods Hate Me: Green Bay has a ton of speed, a ton of talent, and they can rush the passer better than anyone. The Bears, you may or may not have heard, can't block a blind kid on roller skates. Green Bay has the better QB, the better receivers, the better defense ... they should have this game wrapped up if you are listening to the media, all of whom proclaimed the Packers as the golden team at the start of the year. And ... um ... did you see what they did to Atlanta last week? Crap... Oh yeah, and we also had a chance to eliminate them from the playoffs week 17 and didn't, so we are playing them because we didn't finish them off when we had the chance. That's usually not a good sign.
I'm Rewarded For My Dedication: Bears - Saints had a similar feel in 2006: the Bears were given a bad rap heading in due to an inconsistent offense, and they were facing the up and coming dynamite offense in the league. Furthermore, Green Bay shouldn't be able to light it up on Soldier Field's actual football surface like they did on the fast track indoors. The irony of this matchup is that Green Bay, our oldest rival, one of the few teams who know that football is meant to be played like men, out doors, has a team that fits better in a dome. Additional irony? The Bears might fall into that category as well. But for this game it should help the Bears more than hurt them, as it should slow the receivers and pass rush that the Pack used so effectively last week.
Look at this line: the Bears and Pack split the regular season, including a final game that was win or else for Green Bay in which the Bears shut out the Packers offense for 48 MINUTES. But, as I told Bowser last Saturday while Green Bay was decapitating Atlanta: "no way Green Bay isn't the favorite in this game." Still, I'm shocked the line is this high.
The Breakdown: Green Bay has the advantage on the offensive side of the ball by far (the only area you could even give to Chicago would be the running game, if Martz decides to use it). Still, I got the feeling that Chicago tried to beat Green Bay week 17 without using its' offense at all. I think they came in to the game and said "let's see if we can be the Pack, on their field, using our defense and special teams alone." And you know what: we almost did it. On the defensive side of the ball Green Bay was fifth in total yards allow, while Lovie's "Bend and hope you don't break" defense ranked ninth. In points allowed per game the Pack was 2nd (15 flat per game) while the Bears were 4th (17.9 per game). Our special teams are vastly superior to Green Bays, and that will help to determine field position. This is a game that can be had, so long as the Bears do not make critical mistakes. Last week Cutler had two throws where the Seahawks player flat out dropped the interception. Green Bay won't do that; Williams and Woodson are ball hawks in the truest sense of the word, and Matthews, A.J. Hawk and Collins will kill you if you have indecision. Chicago can win this game ... if Jay Cutler can play like Aaron Rogers and not like the ghost of Sexy Rexy has taken over.
How I jinxed the team: I might have told my parents that I would find a way to be in Dallas in two weeks if the circumstances were right. Probably shouldn't have said that.
A final word: How crazy is it that the Bears might actually have the coaching advantage in this game? Mike McCarthy is one of the worst game managers in the league; he calls stupid time outs, doesn't understand the flow of the game, and generally is a bone head. Lovie isn't great, but I feel like he's a tiny bit better here. Still, this game is going to come down to who wants it more, and who forces the other team to make the big mistake.
The Pick: Bears +4 over Green Bay / Chicago 27 - Green Bay 24 (OT)
(That's right, overtime baby. In the word's of then Senator, now President Obama, from Bears - Saints: "It's been a great ride, but the fairy tale ends Sunday at Soldier field." I hope that sentiment rings true this week).
6:30 PM EST - NY Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4)
The Sports Gods Hate Me: I've picked against the Jets two straight weeks, and they've won two straight weeks. Their coach and players have been talking crap, but somehow not getting bad karma for it. Every game is the most important, personal, monumental game in Rex Ryan's life somehow. Mark Sanchez, easily one of the ten worst starting QBs in the NFL today, somehow has won four road playoff games in two year, tying him for the most all time. Pittsburgh also has no offensive line ... at all ... and boatloads of bad karma with the Big Ben. Plus, New York has now taken down the top two QBs of the past decade by most measures (Manning and Brady). Only Big Ben stands in their way of the trifecta of AFC QBs.
I'm Rewarded For My Dedication: Pittsburgh is better coached, has the better QB, the better WRs, and the better defense. Pittsburgh is playing at home, Pittsburgh knows how to win big games. And, as they showed last week, they know how to take a stomach punch (down two TDs to Baltimore at the half) and rebound. They make big plays. Plus my "Deranek - 88" Steelers jersey won them the game last week. It's good luck.
Look at this line: I'm a bit nervous that it's -4 for the Steelers; that means the money and public sentiment is coming down pretty strongly on the Pittsburgh side of the equation. I would have felt quite a bit more comfortable if it was -3, particularly since the Jets already beat Pittsburgh once this year.
The Breakdown: Of course, that defeat was against a Pittsburgh team that was more beat up, and it still barely happened. Pittsburgh has the better defense and the QB you'd want doing a two minute drive with this game on the line. At the end of the day it is just so hard for me to comprehend the Jets, with a QB who can't make throws half the time, winning three straight road games to make it to the Super Bowl. And then there is this: only one team in the history of the NFL has made it to the Super Bowl as a #6 seed. The Jets and Packers are the six seeds in their respective conferences. Is this really going to happen? I can't see it happening at all; Pittsburgh has played sneaky tough all year, and they were my preseason AFC champion. 'Nuff said.
How I jinxed the team: Like I said: Steelers #88 Jersey with Deranek on the back. Great Christmas gift. Not good in the Karma department. Also, if I pick Pittsburgh here I am basically begging the Jets to become this year's version of the Arizona Cardinals: beat my picks three straight weeks into the Super Bowl. Maybe they are peaking at the right time.
A final word: If Rex Ryan manages to get a team QB'd by Mark "Sexy Rexy Clone" Sanchez into the Super Bowl, he would own one of the greatest feats in the history of the NFL. He really has put his best foot forward by taking all the pressure off his team with his crazy antics. It really show that Buddy used to give him a kick in the ass when he was younger. It's amazing to think that this Jets team, which destroyed New England last week, was only able to get by Indianapolis by a foot. (Actually, let's just move this paragraph up to the "how I jinxed the team" category. Damn you Wes Welker).
The Pick: Pittsburgh (-4) over NY Jets / Pittsburgh 20 - New York 13
(Final side note: taking Pittsburgh minus the points is not easy; this game could end up by a field goal very easily. But come on, the dream is still alive, and deeper in the year than at any point in my lifetime. Two tickets to paradise?)
Saturday, January 15, 2011
The Picks: NFL Playoffs 2011, Part 2
And then there were eight. The New Orleans Saints, Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles and Indianapolis Colts have already had their dreams crushed. Some in shocking ways (the Saints being handled by 7-9 Seattle), some having their heart broken (hello Peyton) and two games that really weren't that engaging (Philly had peaked and KC was not very exciting as a team).
On the whole I went 3-1 against the spread, and 2-2 straight up. So what have we learned, where are we going, and what's the deciding factor going to be in round two of the NFL playoffs?
SATURDAY GAMES
4:30 PM - Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)
What have we learned?: Baltimore was aptly described by Mike Lombardi as being an offense that tries to do too many things, like a restaurant that tries to serve too many dishes, without doing any of them well. Last week we saw that up close and personal, as any time Baltimore tried to do something on offense that didn't involve the words "Ray" and "Rice" it did not look all that pleasant. That said, Baltimore had a classic game in my opinion: they wore the opposing team down using a style that controlled time of possession. I turned to my friend Ryan at the half and pointed out the difference in number of plays and time of possession, then said that Baltimore would beat KC going away in the second half. They did, but they won't be as capable of doing that in Pittsburgh, where the Steelers are more than capable of playing that style of ball as well.
Where are we going?: In all likelihood we are headed for yet another epic slug fest that makes you think back to the football games of yore. Very few games are as entertaining and riveting as Pittsburgh - Baltimore because of three main components: 1) both teams play football the way it is supposed to be played (running the ball, playing defense, hard hitting), 2) neither team likes each other at all, and 3) they have both been genuine Super Bowl contenders more times than not. Their game a few years back when Pittsburgh ended up winning the Super Bowl was the best game of the playoffs that year. These teams are like old, worn boxers at this point: both know each others flaws, both know when to counter punch, and it will likely come down to one play which swings it in the favor of one team. These teams split their season series this year, had identical regular season records, and we should probably feel fortunate we get to see round three again this year, just like in 2009.
The deciding factor: Who has the most play makers capable of making the aforementioned one big play needed to decide this game? This drill is pretty straight forward: Pittsburgh has three on defense (Woodley, Harrison and Polamalu) and another three on offense (Big Ben, Mendenhall, and Mike Wallace). Baltimore has two on defense (the aging quick Ray Lewis and aging quicker Ed Reed), and one on offense (Ray Rice). Simply put, Baltimore doesn't have as many players who are at any moment capable of turning this thing; Pittsburgh has a number of them. Finally, Big Ben is a winning QB in the post season: tough to bring down, capable of extending plays, with great field vision and a belief that he is going to win. Joe Flacco, on the other hand, has a great deal of learning to do, and seems to shrink from the big moment.
The pick: Pittsburgh 24 - Baltimore 17 / Pittsburgh (-3) over Baltimore
8:00PM - Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-2)
What have we learned?: Green Bay, up two touchdowns in the first half at Philadelphia last week, let off the gas pedal. Accordingly they narrowly escaped after the Eagles gained traction. Beyond that, we saw yet again that Green Bay has a QB in Aaron Rodgers who can win games, and a defense which is capable of winning over the long haul. We also learned that Atlanta, beyond being beatable at home, can struggle at times when playing against a team who can control the pace of the game. Green Bay can do that, but they can't afford to not finish the Falcons off like they did last week.
Where are we going?: I'm hoping we are going towards the most epic NFC title game of my lifetime at least (Bears v Packers). In breaking this game down we can easily see that Atlanta has the advantage in terms of a balanced attack (courtesy of Michael Turner), but it isn't as if Atlanta is much more experienced in the playoffs than Green Bay under Rodgers. In fact, "Matty Ice" has an 0-1 record in the playoffs, while Aaron Rodgers is 1-1. The Packers defense seems to be a better, and a look at the statistics shows they were fifth in total yards allowed, and second in points allowed. Atlanta, on the other hand, was fifth in points allowed and sixteenth in yards allowed. The long and the short of it is that my brain tells me that Atlanta was by far the best team in the NFC this year, but recent common sense has told me that Green Bay is the hottest team in the NFC, and that Atlanta was shown for what it is a few weeks back on Monday night football by New Orleans.
The deciding factor: Rodgers or Ryan? Which QB do you think is more capable of winning a big game? This game feels very much like a situation where people aren't even giving Atlanta a chance to win this game. A home team, the number one seed in the conference being only a two point favorite? Vegas is basically saying that Green Bay is the better team, the favorite. That makes me nervous. But I'd take Rodgers in the aforementioned match up. That's the deciding factor for this game.
The pick: Green Bay 37 - Atlanta 27 / Green Bay (+2) over Atlanta
SUNDAY'S GAMES
1:00PM - Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears (-10)
What have we learned?: My head is still spinning about Seattle beating New Orleans, but I suppose this validates the "any given Sunday" philosophy. For the second straight week the Seahawks enter play as a double digit underdog. Last week I said that the Seahawks didn't have anything to speak of, and then Marshawn Lynch went nuts, Matt Hasselbeck had an all-career game, and the defense did just enough. So what have we learned? That my terror about betting against a NFC West team which was awful for the season was well founded? I'm going to go with that. Again, this couldn't have come better on paper for my Bears, who just managed to draw a 7-9 team to Soldier Field for the second round of the playoffs. Looks great in theory.
Where are we going?: Towards an ulcer for me? Seattle beat Chicago once already this year, and they have the "nobody believed in us" momentum going strong in their favor. Lovie Smith is a pretty poor coach, but he seems to have the defense and special teams in a order based on the last few weeks of the regular season. The offense, on the other hand, relies on a shoddy offensive line which can't block, which leads to a quarter back who is jumpy at best, and a running game which struggles to gain traction. The Bears had the third worst offense in the NFL this year; only Carolina and Arizona totaled fewer yards. You can't feel good about that. But Seattle was so bad this year....
The deciding factor: If the Bears defense shows up I can't believe that Seattle will be able to score like they did last time. But let's be honest: the deciding factor here is that there is no way I can pick against the Bears, particularly when we are talking about freaking Seattle coming into Soldier Field. That doesn't mean I have to like it, and I think this line is way too high. That only leaves one option...
The pick: Chicago 24 - Seattle 21 / Seattle (+10) over Chicago
4:30PM - New York Jets at New England Patriots (-9)
What have we learned?: Peyton Manning is 35, the Colts are beat up, and we may be seeing the great Peyton's transition in the the late Dan Marino phase of his career. That's why we have Pats v Jets: Manning just couldn't make the throws that he needed to last week, or that he would have in the past. Now we get the rubber match of two teams which couldn't be more different. The Jets are loud, brash, trash talking and high profiled, while the Patriots regained their rightful place as the low key, underrated, team of no names. Talk about polar opposites.
Where are we going?: This year these teams played two games: Jets 28 - Pats 14, and Pats 45 Jets 3. Week two the Pats were still forcing the ball to Randy Moss, and they got handled in the nice weather by Mark Sanchez. By week 13 the Pats were spreading the ball around and controlling the game, while the weather had gotten bad and Sanchez's play had gone into the toilet. Really, here's what I think you need to know:
Quarterback A: 3,291 yards, 54.8% completion percentage, 17 TD, 13 INT, 75.3 QB rating
Quarterback B: 3,193 yards, 54.6% completion percentage, 23 TD, 20 INT, 73.9 QB rating
Quarterback A? Mark Sanchez this year. QB B? Rex Grossman in 2006, the year the Bears made the Super Bowl. Let's just say that Jets fans shouldn't be too excited about the Sanchise.
The deciding factor: Brady or Sanchez? I just can't see the Jets competing with the same New England team that I watched shred the Bears and the Jets.
The pick: New England 38 - New York 17 / New England (-9) over New York
Playoff record thus far against the spread: 3-1
Playoff record thus far straight up: 2-2
Combined playoff record thus far: 5-3
On the whole I went 3-1 against the spread, and 2-2 straight up. So what have we learned, where are we going, and what's the deciding factor going to be in round two of the NFL playoffs?
SATURDAY GAMES
4:30 PM - Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)
What have we learned?: Baltimore was aptly described by Mike Lombardi as being an offense that tries to do too many things, like a restaurant that tries to serve too many dishes, without doing any of them well. Last week we saw that up close and personal, as any time Baltimore tried to do something on offense that didn't involve the words "Ray" and "Rice" it did not look all that pleasant. That said, Baltimore had a classic game in my opinion: they wore the opposing team down using a style that controlled time of possession. I turned to my friend Ryan at the half and pointed out the difference in number of plays and time of possession, then said that Baltimore would beat KC going away in the second half. They did, but they won't be as capable of doing that in Pittsburgh, where the Steelers are more than capable of playing that style of ball as well.
Where are we going?: In all likelihood we are headed for yet another epic slug fest that makes you think back to the football games of yore. Very few games are as entertaining and riveting as Pittsburgh - Baltimore because of three main components: 1) both teams play football the way it is supposed to be played (running the ball, playing defense, hard hitting), 2) neither team likes each other at all, and 3) they have both been genuine Super Bowl contenders more times than not. Their game a few years back when Pittsburgh ended up winning the Super Bowl was the best game of the playoffs that year. These teams are like old, worn boxers at this point: both know each others flaws, both know when to counter punch, and it will likely come down to one play which swings it in the favor of one team. These teams split their season series this year, had identical regular season records, and we should probably feel fortunate we get to see round three again this year, just like in 2009.
The deciding factor: Who has the most play makers capable of making the aforementioned one big play needed to decide this game? This drill is pretty straight forward: Pittsburgh has three on defense (Woodley, Harrison and Polamalu) and another three on offense (Big Ben, Mendenhall, and Mike Wallace). Baltimore has two on defense (the aging quick Ray Lewis and aging quicker Ed Reed), and one on offense (Ray Rice). Simply put, Baltimore doesn't have as many players who are at any moment capable of turning this thing; Pittsburgh has a number of them. Finally, Big Ben is a winning QB in the post season: tough to bring down, capable of extending plays, with great field vision and a belief that he is going to win. Joe Flacco, on the other hand, has a great deal of learning to do, and seems to shrink from the big moment.
The pick: Pittsburgh 24 - Baltimore 17 / Pittsburgh (-3) over Baltimore
8:00PM - Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-2)
What have we learned?: Green Bay, up two touchdowns in the first half at Philadelphia last week, let off the gas pedal. Accordingly they narrowly escaped after the Eagles gained traction. Beyond that, we saw yet again that Green Bay has a QB in Aaron Rodgers who can win games, and a defense which is capable of winning over the long haul. We also learned that Atlanta, beyond being beatable at home, can struggle at times when playing against a team who can control the pace of the game. Green Bay can do that, but they can't afford to not finish the Falcons off like they did last week.
Where are we going?: I'm hoping we are going towards the most epic NFC title game of my lifetime at least (Bears v Packers). In breaking this game down we can easily see that Atlanta has the advantage in terms of a balanced attack (courtesy of Michael Turner), but it isn't as if Atlanta is much more experienced in the playoffs than Green Bay under Rodgers. In fact, "Matty Ice" has an 0-1 record in the playoffs, while Aaron Rodgers is 1-1. The Packers defense seems to be a better, and a look at the statistics shows they were fifth in total yards allowed, and second in points allowed. Atlanta, on the other hand, was fifth in points allowed and sixteenth in yards allowed. The long and the short of it is that my brain tells me that Atlanta was by far the best team in the NFC this year, but recent common sense has told me that Green Bay is the hottest team in the NFC, and that Atlanta was shown for what it is a few weeks back on Monday night football by New Orleans.
The deciding factor: Rodgers or Ryan? Which QB do you think is more capable of winning a big game? This game feels very much like a situation where people aren't even giving Atlanta a chance to win this game. A home team, the number one seed in the conference being only a two point favorite? Vegas is basically saying that Green Bay is the better team, the favorite. That makes me nervous. But I'd take Rodgers in the aforementioned match up. That's the deciding factor for this game.
The pick: Green Bay 37 - Atlanta 27 / Green Bay (+2) over Atlanta
SUNDAY'S GAMES
1:00PM - Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears (-10)
What have we learned?: My head is still spinning about Seattle beating New Orleans, but I suppose this validates the "any given Sunday" philosophy. For the second straight week the Seahawks enter play as a double digit underdog. Last week I said that the Seahawks didn't have anything to speak of, and then Marshawn Lynch went nuts, Matt Hasselbeck had an all-career game, and the defense did just enough. So what have we learned? That my terror about betting against a NFC West team which was awful for the season was well founded? I'm going to go with that. Again, this couldn't have come better on paper for my Bears, who just managed to draw a 7-9 team to Soldier Field for the second round of the playoffs. Looks great in theory.
Where are we going?: Towards an ulcer for me? Seattle beat Chicago once already this year, and they have the "nobody believed in us" momentum going strong in their favor. Lovie Smith is a pretty poor coach, but he seems to have the defense and special teams in a order based on the last few weeks of the regular season. The offense, on the other hand, relies on a shoddy offensive line which can't block, which leads to a quarter back who is jumpy at best, and a running game which struggles to gain traction. The Bears had the third worst offense in the NFL this year; only Carolina and Arizona totaled fewer yards. You can't feel good about that. But Seattle was so bad this year....
The deciding factor: If the Bears defense shows up I can't believe that Seattle will be able to score like they did last time. But let's be honest: the deciding factor here is that there is no way I can pick against the Bears, particularly when we are talking about freaking Seattle coming into Soldier Field. That doesn't mean I have to like it, and I think this line is way too high. That only leaves one option...
The pick: Chicago 24 - Seattle 21 / Seattle (+10) over Chicago
4:30PM - New York Jets at New England Patriots (-9)
What have we learned?: Peyton Manning is 35, the Colts are beat up, and we may be seeing the great Peyton's transition in the the late Dan Marino phase of his career. That's why we have Pats v Jets: Manning just couldn't make the throws that he needed to last week, or that he would have in the past. Now we get the rubber match of two teams which couldn't be more different. The Jets are loud, brash, trash talking and high profiled, while the Patriots regained their rightful place as the low key, underrated, team of no names. Talk about polar opposites.
Where are we going?: This year these teams played two games: Jets 28 - Pats 14, and Pats 45 Jets 3. Week two the Pats were still forcing the ball to Randy Moss, and they got handled in the nice weather by Mark Sanchez. By week 13 the Pats were spreading the ball around and controlling the game, while the weather had gotten bad and Sanchez's play had gone into the toilet. Really, here's what I think you need to know:
Quarterback A: 3,291 yards, 54.8% completion percentage, 17 TD, 13 INT, 75.3 QB rating
Quarterback B: 3,193 yards, 54.6% completion percentage, 23 TD, 20 INT, 73.9 QB rating
Quarterback A? Mark Sanchez this year. QB B? Rex Grossman in 2006, the year the Bears made the Super Bowl. Let's just say that Jets fans shouldn't be too excited about the Sanchise.
The deciding factor: Brady or Sanchez? I just can't see the Jets competing with the same New England team that I watched shred the Bears and the Jets.
The pick: New England 38 - New York 17 / New England (-9) over New York
Playoff record thus far against the spread: 3-1
Playoff record thus far straight up: 2-2
Combined playoff record thus far: 5-3
Saturday, January 8, 2011
The Picks: NFL Playoffs 2011, Part 1
And now, finally, it's here. My favorite time of year, when I throw caution to the wind and pretend that I can actually breakdown the matchups and games in the NFL playoffs with any degree of certainty. In the next week I need to determine where I will watch the Bears playoff game without jinxing them, but for this week all there is to do is throw my picks out there, explain the logic, and see if it sticks. As always, the dream of a perfect postseason picking NFL games haunts me, dating back to my 8-0 start in 1998's playoffs, which came to a crashing end by picking both Championship Games incorrectly.This year I am adding the spread as an additional amount of fun, with the lines taken from ESPN.com the day I wrote the post. Without further delay:
SATURDAY'S GAMES
4:30 PM - New Orleans Saints (-11) v Seattle Seahawks
Background: In the game that nobody in their right mind cares about, we find the defending Super Bowl Champions (thank you Tracy Porter), and the first team to qualify for the playoffs with a losing record. This game features a team that we know can win, in New Orleans, against a team that just proved it can't win half of its games. Accordingly, we also have the biggest home underdog in NFL playoff history, with the Seahawks, your NFL West champions, being given eleven points at home. On paper there is no way that Seattle can compete in this game. Then again, I'm the same guy who said the same thing about the 9-7 Arizona Cardinals two years back, jumped on the well publicized "they are the worst playoff team ever" bandwagon, and then bet against them all throughout the NFC playoffs, watching them win every time. I may not be over this yet, but I also feel comfortable in saying that these Seahawks have ended the debate about the worst playoff team ever. They have the conch.
The Logic: New Orleans is the far better team. They can blitz, they can pass the ball all day long, and it's unlikely that the loud crowd at Qwest Field will shake them if Peyton Manning having the ball late in the Super Bowl didn't. That said, New Orleans just lost their top two running backs (Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas) for the rest of the year. That leaves them with scat back Reggie Bush and ... drum roll please ... Seahawks cast off Julius Jones. Seattle, on the other hand, has a washed up Matt Hasselbeck (or JC Superstar stand in Charlie Whitehurst) at QB, no real running game, no real passing game, and their only real advantage comes back to their loud crowd. On any given Sunday one team can beat another; we've seen that time and again. Think about a pretty poor NY Giants team getting hot, making it to the Super Bowl after upsetting Brett Favre at home, and then shocking the best football team of my lifetime (New England). The point? Anything can happen. I'm just not willing to bet it will this time. The spread makes it more interesting, because an 11 point spread basically means that if you pick the Saints they will need to win by two touchdowns or three scores (1 TD, 2 FG). This line is perfect for a backdoor cover by Seattle: down two touchdowns with two minutes left, Seattle drives the length of the field and scores a touchdown with no time left to lose the game but cover the spread. Still, it seems more likely to me that New Orleans will blow the Seahawks out than that Seattle will make it a game. The final bit of information? New Orleans 34 - Seattle 19: the score of the game earlier this year when these teams locked horns.
The Pick: New Orleans 31 - Seattle 17 / New Orleans (-11) over Seattle
8:00PM - New York Jets v Indianapolis Colts (-3)
Background: The Colts helped to let the Jets into the playoffs last year by laying down in Week 16, passing on the chance for a perfect season, and jinxing themselves for the rest of the year. The Jets came into Indy in the AFC title game, and played very tough for a half before Peyton Manning figured out how to crack their defense. This year the Jets were a trendy preseason pick, and while they did not meet the lofty regular season expectations, here they are again. The Colts underachieved as well, as Peyton proved to be human when dealing with a talent level comparable to his peers. Still, in the last few weeks we've seen the Jets defense look poor (against Chicago) and Indianapolis find ways to slide by. This is, bar none, the marquee matchup of the first round.
The Logic: Vegas believes these teams to be essentially equals, as they have given the Colts the customary home team spread of -3. The Jets are not running the ball as well as last year (Tomlinson instead of Thomas Jones doesn't look so great now), and Mark Sanchez was a pretty poor QB when you get down to the numbers. Revis has been injured most of the year, and the defense is having a hard time getting to the QB. On almost every level it is tough to see where the Jets are a real threat. On the flip side, the Colts have struggled to run the ball all year before the past four weeks. Manning has been much more turnover prone this year, a throw back to his early years, and their defense continues to have very little to brag about other than their defensive ends on pass rushing down. Earlier this year I mentioned that the Colts were like Michael Meyers: they aren't down until someone cuts their head off. This Jets team doesn't have the offense to hang with Manning, and it doesn't have the defense to contain Manning. I might be missing something (namely the fact that the Colts were 6-6 only four weeks ago), but I just can't see a Jets team that my Bears dealt with going into Indy, with their piped in crowd noise, and beating Manning. That said, this game may be close enough that I can see Manning, down six, driving down the field to win the game on the last drive. You know what that means? Split the difference.
The Pick: Indianapolis 24 - New York Jets 23 / NY Jets (+3) over Indianapolis
SUNDAY'S GAMES
1:00PM - Baltimore Ravens (-3) v Kansas City Chiefs
The Background: Kansas City pretty much handled the AFC West this year ... only they didn't handle the West itself, just the rest of their schedule. My preseason AFC West pick, Oakland, went 6-0 against the division, while KC went 2-4. That said, the Chiefs did go 7-1 at home (only losing in week 17 against Oakland, with the 3rd seed on the line), which means that the home field advantage at Arrowhead is still alive and well. Before his appendectomy Matt Cassel was doing great, throwing TDs and not throwing INTs. After his appendectomy, not so much. The Chiefs do have a great running game, led by Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, and a big play WR in Dywane Bowe. Baltimore, who has traditionally had a dominate defense, brought up the end of the top third this year, finishing tenth in total yards allowed, but they were 21st against the pass and fifth against the run. The moral of the story when KC has the ball is that Matt Cassel will have to play like he was through the mid part of the year for the team to win, because it is unlikely that Charles and Jones will be able to run through Baltimore's defense. On the flip side, Baltimore's offense ranked in the bottom third in the NFL, coming in 22nd in total offense, including 20th in passing offense and 14th in running offense. The Chiefs defense ranked 14th overall, including 17th against the pass and 14th against the run. The most mind numbing part of this exercise? San Diego finished the year first in the NFL in offensive yards and first overall in fewest yards allowed, yet they aren't in the playoffs. And still, Norv has a job. How?
The Logic: This game comes down to gut instinct, and at the end of the day I think that Baltimore is more than capable of winning this game, and I'm not sure Matt Cassel is capable of doing the same. Charlie Weis is leaving, which always makes for an awkward situation, and I did not like the way that KC ended the year, being throttled at home in an important game by Oakland. Baltimore, on the other hand, went into New England last year and won a game in the playoffs. Joe Flacco has the playoff reps, Cassel doesn't. I just don't see KC winning this game.
The Pick: Baltimore 23 - Kansas City 17 / Baltimore (-3) over Kansas City
4:30PM - Green Bay v Philadelphia (-3)
The Background: Michael Vick versus Aaron Rodgers on the one year anniversary of Kurt Warner versus Aaron Rodgers. Translation: who needs defense? That, on the surface, should be the story of this game. Philadelphia has not had a great defense this year, and Michael Vick appeared to be human again, reminding a number of us of his weakness as a QB in the past few weeks. The Eagles offense is dynamic, but if Vick is anything less than healthy he will have a hard time dealing with a much improved Packers defense. Additionally, Green Bay has the advantage of having played back to back playoff games in week 16 and 17, winning against both the Giants and then the Bears.
The Logic: Mike Vick is banged up, Aaron Rodgers is back from his concussion(s), and is the most dynamic QB in the league in terms of racking up yardage. The Packers don't have a running game, but that won't bite them in this game, as the Eagles don't like to use a running game anyway. This game, in the best case scenario, should be a shootout. But Green Bay is playing at a high level, while Philadelphia seems to have peaked a few weeks too early. This game, also, seems pretty simple: Green Bay is just the better team.
The Pick: Green Bay 38 - Philadelphia 31 / Green Bay (+3) over Philadelphia
So, to review, I'm taking New Orleans, Indianapolis, Baltimore and Green Bay. Three road teams, one home team. Additionally, I'm taking New Orleans -11, New York +3, Baltimore -3, and Green Bay +3, which amounts to two favorites and two dogs. And then next week we get the big boys: Pats, Steelers, Falcons and Bears. I love the playoffs.
SATURDAY'S GAMES
4:30 PM - New Orleans Saints (-11) v Seattle Seahawks
Background: In the game that nobody in their right mind cares about, we find the defending Super Bowl Champions (thank you Tracy Porter), and the first team to qualify for the playoffs with a losing record. This game features a team that we know can win, in New Orleans, against a team that just proved it can't win half of its games. Accordingly, we also have the biggest home underdog in NFL playoff history, with the Seahawks, your NFL West champions, being given eleven points at home. On paper there is no way that Seattle can compete in this game. Then again, I'm the same guy who said the same thing about the 9-7 Arizona Cardinals two years back, jumped on the well publicized "they are the worst playoff team ever" bandwagon, and then bet against them all throughout the NFC playoffs, watching them win every time. I may not be over this yet, but I also feel comfortable in saying that these Seahawks have ended the debate about the worst playoff team ever. They have the conch.
The Logic: New Orleans is the far better team. They can blitz, they can pass the ball all day long, and it's unlikely that the loud crowd at Qwest Field will shake them if Peyton Manning having the ball late in the Super Bowl didn't. That said, New Orleans just lost their top two running backs (Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas) for the rest of the year. That leaves them with scat back Reggie Bush and ... drum roll please ... Seahawks cast off Julius Jones. Seattle, on the other hand, has a washed up Matt Hasselbeck (or JC Superstar stand in Charlie Whitehurst) at QB, no real running game, no real passing game, and their only real advantage comes back to their loud crowd. On any given Sunday one team can beat another; we've seen that time and again. Think about a pretty poor NY Giants team getting hot, making it to the Super Bowl after upsetting Brett Favre at home, and then shocking the best football team of my lifetime (New England). The point? Anything can happen. I'm just not willing to bet it will this time. The spread makes it more interesting, because an 11 point spread basically means that if you pick the Saints they will need to win by two touchdowns or three scores (1 TD, 2 FG). This line is perfect for a backdoor cover by Seattle: down two touchdowns with two minutes left, Seattle drives the length of the field and scores a touchdown with no time left to lose the game but cover the spread. Still, it seems more likely to me that New Orleans will blow the Seahawks out than that Seattle will make it a game. The final bit of information? New Orleans 34 - Seattle 19: the score of the game earlier this year when these teams locked horns.
The Pick: New Orleans 31 - Seattle 17 / New Orleans (-11) over Seattle
8:00PM - New York Jets v Indianapolis Colts (-3)
Background: The Colts helped to let the Jets into the playoffs last year by laying down in Week 16, passing on the chance for a perfect season, and jinxing themselves for the rest of the year. The Jets came into Indy in the AFC title game, and played very tough for a half before Peyton Manning figured out how to crack their defense. This year the Jets were a trendy preseason pick, and while they did not meet the lofty regular season expectations, here they are again. The Colts underachieved as well, as Peyton proved to be human when dealing with a talent level comparable to his peers. Still, in the last few weeks we've seen the Jets defense look poor (against Chicago) and Indianapolis find ways to slide by. This is, bar none, the marquee matchup of the first round.
The Logic: Vegas believes these teams to be essentially equals, as they have given the Colts the customary home team spread of -3. The Jets are not running the ball as well as last year (Tomlinson instead of Thomas Jones doesn't look so great now), and Mark Sanchez was a pretty poor QB when you get down to the numbers. Revis has been injured most of the year, and the defense is having a hard time getting to the QB. On almost every level it is tough to see where the Jets are a real threat. On the flip side, the Colts have struggled to run the ball all year before the past four weeks. Manning has been much more turnover prone this year, a throw back to his early years, and their defense continues to have very little to brag about other than their defensive ends on pass rushing down. Earlier this year I mentioned that the Colts were like Michael Meyers: they aren't down until someone cuts their head off. This Jets team doesn't have the offense to hang with Manning, and it doesn't have the defense to contain Manning. I might be missing something (namely the fact that the Colts were 6-6 only four weeks ago), but I just can't see a Jets team that my Bears dealt with going into Indy, with their piped in crowd noise, and beating Manning. That said, this game may be close enough that I can see Manning, down six, driving down the field to win the game on the last drive. You know what that means? Split the difference.
The Pick: Indianapolis 24 - New York Jets 23 / NY Jets (+3) over Indianapolis
SUNDAY'S GAMES
1:00PM - Baltimore Ravens (-3) v Kansas City Chiefs
The Background: Kansas City pretty much handled the AFC West this year ... only they didn't handle the West itself, just the rest of their schedule. My preseason AFC West pick, Oakland, went 6-0 against the division, while KC went 2-4. That said, the Chiefs did go 7-1 at home (only losing in week 17 against Oakland, with the 3rd seed on the line), which means that the home field advantage at Arrowhead is still alive and well. Before his appendectomy Matt Cassel was doing great, throwing TDs and not throwing INTs. After his appendectomy, not so much. The Chiefs do have a great running game, led by Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, and a big play WR in Dywane Bowe. Baltimore, who has traditionally had a dominate defense, brought up the end of the top third this year, finishing tenth in total yards allowed, but they were 21st against the pass and fifth against the run. The moral of the story when KC has the ball is that Matt Cassel will have to play like he was through the mid part of the year for the team to win, because it is unlikely that Charles and Jones will be able to run through Baltimore's defense. On the flip side, Baltimore's offense ranked in the bottom third in the NFL, coming in 22nd in total offense, including 20th in passing offense and 14th in running offense. The Chiefs defense ranked 14th overall, including 17th against the pass and 14th against the run. The most mind numbing part of this exercise? San Diego finished the year first in the NFL in offensive yards and first overall in fewest yards allowed, yet they aren't in the playoffs. And still, Norv has a job. How?
The Logic: This game comes down to gut instinct, and at the end of the day I think that Baltimore is more than capable of winning this game, and I'm not sure Matt Cassel is capable of doing the same. Charlie Weis is leaving, which always makes for an awkward situation, and I did not like the way that KC ended the year, being throttled at home in an important game by Oakland. Baltimore, on the other hand, went into New England last year and won a game in the playoffs. Joe Flacco has the playoff reps, Cassel doesn't. I just don't see KC winning this game.
The Pick: Baltimore 23 - Kansas City 17 / Baltimore (-3) over Kansas City
4:30PM - Green Bay v Philadelphia (-3)
The Background: Michael Vick versus Aaron Rodgers on the one year anniversary of Kurt Warner versus Aaron Rodgers. Translation: who needs defense? That, on the surface, should be the story of this game. Philadelphia has not had a great defense this year, and Michael Vick appeared to be human again, reminding a number of us of his weakness as a QB in the past few weeks. The Eagles offense is dynamic, but if Vick is anything less than healthy he will have a hard time dealing with a much improved Packers defense. Additionally, Green Bay has the advantage of having played back to back playoff games in week 16 and 17, winning against both the Giants and then the Bears.
The Logic: Mike Vick is banged up, Aaron Rodgers is back from his concussion(s), and is the most dynamic QB in the league in terms of racking up yardage. The Packers don't have a running game, but that won't bite them in this game, as the Eagles don't like to use a running game anyway. This game, in the best case scenario, should be a shootout. But Green Bay is playing at a high level, while Philadelphia seems to have peaked a few weeks too early. This game, also, seems pretty simple: Green Bay is just the better team.
The Pick: Green Bay 38 - Philadelphia 31 / Green Bay (+3) over Philadelphia
So, to review, I'm taking New Orleans, Indianapolis, Baltimore and Green Bay. Three road teams, one home team. Additionally, I'm taking New Orleans -11, New York +3, Baltimore -3, and Green Bay +3, which amounts to two favorites and two dogs. And then next week we get the big boys: Pats, Steelers, Falcons and Bears. I love the playoffs.
Friday, December 31, 2010
NFL - The Year In Review
And now, finally, we head into week 17, the last week of full NFL football for over a year if the owners have anything to say about it. It has been a wild and whacky year, and so in hindsight I'll review my preseason picks (posted here) and figure out what I was right about, what I was wrong about, and what just doesn't make any sense. Then, starting next week, we'll go with the playoff picks.
AFC EAST
Preseason predictions: New England (11-5), Miami (10-6), NY Jets (7-9), Buffalo (3-13)
Through week sixteen: New England (13-2), NY Jets (10-5), Miami (7-8), Buffalo (4-11)
What I was right about: in August my Uncle and I had a discussion about New England, and Tom Brady in particular. I stated that I thought Brady would have a resurgent year, due in large part to having a year under his belt since his knee injury. My Uncle proclaimed Brady to be done, based on the logic that he had the rings, the super model wife, and wasn't going to be as devoted to the trade as in years past. We agreed to disagree. For once I was more than right; Brady's season might be the best year a QB has had in NFL history, particularly when you consider that one of his four interceptions was on an end of half Hail Mary, the talent around him was either rebounding from serious injury (Welker), over the hill (Branch) or unknown castoffs (rookie TEs, Woodhead and Green-Ellis). One year after I lamented the fact that Manning was on the verge of making "Manning or Brady" a legitimate argument, Brady has made it laughable again.
What I was wrong about: I expected the Jets to fall much more spectacularly, and while I was mostly right about their flaws (highly overrated QB, poor decision switching Thomas Jones for Tomlinson, a defense with too many egos and not enough discipline), they are good enough to make the playoffs, and they have enough talent to make some noise again this year. So, by default, I was wrong in calling for the Jets demise this year. Leading the Jets to consecutive playoff appearances is quite the feat for Rex Ryan.
What doesn't make any sense: The Miami Dolphins: 1 and 7 at home, 6 and 1 on the road. Miami fans have had a rough year, between the Heat having to teach their fans how to be fans, and the Dolphins having the exact opposite of a home court advantage.
AFC North
Preseason predictions: Pittsburgh (12-4), Baltimore (10-6), Cincinnati (7-9), Cleveland (4-12)
Through week sixteen: Pittsburgh (11-4), Baltimore (11-4), Cleveland (5-10), Cincinnati (4-11)
What I was right about: in the preseason I stated that "even with a porous offensive line the Steelers will reassert themselves as the top team in the AFC north." So far, so good. I also correctly projected a playoff year for Baltimore, and a regression from the Division Champ to out of the playoffs for Cincinnati, as well as a poor year for Cleveland.
What I was wrong about: I also wrote about Cincinnati that "Cincinnati has all kinds of warning flags for me: a QB who has looked progressively more washed up with every year, a RB who has no heart and poor secondary numbers, two big mouthed diva WRs, and a coach who nobody is sure is actually good." Even with realizing all of that I didn't devalue the Bengals enough. This is how bad the Bengals season was: a co-worker of mine, a life long Bengals fan, finally decided enough was enough this year, and he dumped the team. That's right, he disowned them, held a multi-week search for a new team, and finally settled on the New York Jets. I can't say I condone this action, but I at least appreciate what drove him to it.
What doesn't make any sense: I'm still puzzled by Cleveland giving millions of dollars to Jake Delhomme's corpse. It doesn't make any more sense now than it did at the time. Thank God, for the city of Cleveland's sake, that Delhomme got hurt. Only Jake's play could make Colt McCoy look like a franchise savior.
AFC South
Preseason predictions: Indianapolis (13-3), Houston (11-5), Tennessee (8-8), Jacksonville (8-8)
Through week sixteen: Indianapolis (9-6), Jacksonville (8-7), Tennessee (6-9), Houston (5-10)
What I was right about: Check out my quote from the preseason and tell me this isn't hauntingly prophetic: "the Colts have become like a bad horror movie: every time you think they are dead you walk away, fail to finish the deed, then they come back and maul you. Someone needs to cut their head off, but looking at this group I'm not sure anyone is capable of it." Now, flash forward to week 14. The Colts are 6-6, the Jags are in control of the division, even Houston and Tennessee have outside chances. Three weeks later, and none of the group were capable of finishing the Colts off. Somehow, this team is going to be in the playoffs again, as the division champs again.
What I was wrong about: I vastly overrated Houston's ability to capitalize on all their talent. They should have just collectively retired after beating the Colts week one. That was the high point of their season.
What doesn't make any sense: Ok, the idea that Peyton Manning is playing with a group of players so inferior to Tom Brady this year is ridiculous. Peyton, welcome to Tom's world: playing with castoffs, late round draft picks, and washed up veterans. With the lone exception of a two year honeymoon with Randy Moss, that's been his entire career. You know, while you've been berating a few guys by the names of Harrison, James, Faulk, Wayne, and Clark. The Manning myth is the most impressive thing the NFL has ever constructed.
AFC West
Preseason predictions: Oakland Raiders (9-7), San Diego Charges (8-8), Denver Broncos (7-9), Kansas City (6-10)
Through week sixteen: Kansas City (10-5), San Diego (8-7), Oakland (7-8), Denver (4-11)
What I was right about: The Chargers really did find a way to blow the division, and Oakland really did improve quite a bit. My preseason Oakland prediction wasn't actually as crazy as you thought, was it?
What I was wrong about: I vastly underrated the impact that the Chiefs would get out of getting the band back together: Charlie Wise and Romeo Crennel both did wonders for their respective sides of the ball, and for the second time in three years Matt Cassell looks like a competent QB. Thomas Jones just keeps on delivering playoff appearances for whatever team wakes up and realizes he still a productive running back. I'm so glad the Bears dumped him a few years back for Cedric Benson. Jerry and Lovie, you guys are absolute geniuses. (Help me. Lovie has a gun to my head right now. SEND HELP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
What doesn't make any sense: The Chargers have the second best offense in the league, and the best defense in the league. Can we all just agree to fire Norv Turner now, and never rehire him? I feel like I need to hold an intervention for NFL owners. Seriously guys, this never ends well. The Norv train ain't never late.
NFC East
Preseason predictions: Dallas (13-3), NY Giants (10-6), Washington Redskins (8-8), Philadelphia (6-10)
Through week sixteen: Philadelphia (10-5), NY Giants (9-6), Washington (6-9), Dallas (5-10)
What I was right about: Not much. I suppose you can say that I was pretty spot on in my analysis of the New York Giants, even though most in the media didn't like them to return to the playoffs. I was also right in my "why this won't happen" section, when I stated "Wade Phillips outweighs his talent."
What I was wrong about: I clearly stated that Dallas had too much talent to do exactly what they did: crap the bed, or billion dollar stadium, so to speak. Can we also agree never to hire Wade Phillips again? If only I'd followed my Norv logic through to the end I wouldn't have missed this one by so much. I also didn't envision Michael Vick becoming the captain of the most exciting offense in the NFL. Although I did see it coming after his week one performance, when I picked him up for my fantasy teams.
What doesn't make any sense: Mike Shanahan just benched Donovan McNabb, right after extending him for $78 million dollars, for Rex Grossman. I take back my preseason assessment that you wouldn't mind having Shanahan run your team.
NFC North
Preseason predictions: Green Bay (11-5), Chicago (10-6), Minnesota (7-9), Detroit (6-10)
Through week sixteen: Chicago (11-4), Green Bay (9-6), Minnesota (6-9), Detroit (5-10)
What I was right about: Almost everything; in fact, were it not for a multitude of injuries for Green Bay I'm thinking I might have been dead on. I told you that the Bears would win just enough for management to extend Lovie. And I couldn't be more excited about it. The man truly is a coaching genius. Who's Mike Ditka? (PLEASE SEND HELP. I'M AFRAID LOVIE IS GOING TO STAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND SINCE HE WILL ALMOST UNDOUBTEDLY MAIL THIS WEEK'S GAME IN, A TERRIBLE ... I MEAN, GREAT STRATEGY. I SAID GREAT STRATEGY LOVIE. WAIT, LOVIE .... NOOOOOOOOOOOOO!)
What I was wrong about: Pretty much nothing except for not projecting that Green Bay would look more like a trauma ward and less like a football team this year.
What doesn't make any sense: Why does Brian Urlacher not care anymore? Did last year really mellow him out this much? While watching the Bears get ripped apart by New England the most depressing part of the game was that nobody seemed to care. Three years ago Urlacher would have ended someone on the sidelines, on the field, something. What happened big guy? Who knew your heart was actually located in the wrist?
NFC South
Preseason predictions: New Orleans (14-2), Carolina (11-5), Atlanta (9-7), Tampa Bay (5-11)
Through week sixteen: Atlanta (12-3), New Orleans (11-4), Tampa Bay (9-6), Carolina (2-13)
What I was right about: The streak of non-concurrent division winners continues ... which I mentioned in the section about why my prediction for this division would not happen. Crap.
What I was wrong about: I refuse to believe that I picked Carolina to go 11-5 this year. This part of the picks section had to have been hijacked by The Wiese. There is no way that I would have ever typed the words "I believe in Matt Moore."
What doesn't make any sense: Why I was stupid enough to pick Carolina to go 11-5. On the whole I didn't do too bad this year. But this pick is pretty embarrassing. Even Lovie is laughing at me.
NFC West
Preseason predictions: San Francisco (11-5), Arizona (8-8), St. Louis (5-11), Seattle (4-12)
Through week sixteen: St. Louis (7-8), Seattle (6-9), San Francisco (5-10), Arizona (5-10)
What I was right about: That's a good question. I guess I was right about this division not being any good, and being "super weak." I was so right about that read that we are getting the following promo this Sunday night: "Rams! Seahawks! A five hundred or worse playoff team is only sixty minutes from being crowned. A playoff play in on NBC!" Even Collinsworth can't sell this right?
What I was wrong about: I'm sorry Mike Singletary. I believed in you. I'll still wear your jersey proudly. But you were not very good as a coach.
What doesn't make any sense: I'm having trauma echos about betting against the NFC West champ in the first round, and I don't even know who they champ will be yet. The reason? Betting three straight rounds against "the worst team to ever make the playoffs" two years ago (9-7 Arizona) only to have them march to the Super Bowl. History can't repeat itself ... right?
Preseason Playoff Predictions
AFC PLAYOFF TEAMS (by seed)
1. Indianapolis Colts
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
3. New England Patriots
4. Oakland Raiders
5. Houston Texans
6. Baltimore Ravens
NFC PLAYOFF TEAMS (by seed)
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Dallas Cowboys
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Green Bay Packers
5. Carolina Panthers
6. New York Giants
Likely Playoff Teams through week 16.
AFC:
1. New England
2. Pittsburgh
3. Kansas City
4. Indianapolis
5. Baltimore
6. NY Jets
(this could be shifted upside down if Pittsburgh and KC lose, and the Colts, Ravens, and Jets win. Then it would be 1. New England, 2. Baltimore, 3. Indianapolis, 4. Kansas City, 5. NY Jets and 6. Pittsburgh. And yes, I have that memorized. Seeding is important for playoff picks. And even though it isn't likely to happen, I suppose the Jags beaten corpse could win, with the Colts losing, resulting in the Colts missing the playoffs and the Jags as the 4 seed. Please?)
NFC:
1. Atlanta
2. Chicago
3. Philadelphia
4. St. Louis
5. New Orleans
6. Green Bay
(Atlanta could still lose the number one seed or division heading into the final week. Fear the Panthers Atlanta. This is John Fox's last game, and like I ... I mean, like The Wiese said earlier this year, the Panthers are going all out for him. It's time for win number three baby!
...
...
I'm back. Beyond that, Seattle could be the 4 seed if they beat St. Louis, the Bears could be the one seed if they win and Atlanta and New Orleans lose, the NY Giants could be in if they win and Green Bay falls to Chicago. But that six looks likely to me. So there.)
And so, in comparison, I (most likely) got four of six AFC teams correct (New England, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Indy) while missing on the AFC west (KC not Oakland) and the other wild card team (NY Jets, not Houston ... never Houston). I only got one certain, and no more than two NFC teams correct (New Orleans and probably Green Bay.
50%
That's the NFL baby. At least my preseason prediction for the Super Bowl (New Orleans over Pittsburgh) is still alive. Although I could have sworn I took Pittsburgh. Maybe The Wiese wrote that part too, huh Lovie?
AFC EAST
Preseason predictions: New England (11-5), Miami (10-6), NY Jets (7-9), Buffalo (3-13)
Through week sixteen: New England (13-2), NY Jets (10-5), Miami (7-8), Buffalo (4-11)
What I was right about: in August my Uncle and I had a discussion about New England, and Tom Brady in particular. I stated that I thought Brady would have a resurgent year, due in large part to having a year under his belt since his knee injury. My Uncle proclaimed Brady to be done, based on the logic that he had the rings, the super model wife, and wasn't going to be as devoted to the trade as in years past. We agreed to disagree. For once I was more than right; Brady's season might be the best year a QB has had in NFL history, particularly when you consider that one of his four interceptions was on an end of half Hail Mary, the talent around him was either rebounding from serious injury (Welker), over the hill (Branch) or unknown castoffs (rookie TEs, Woodhead and Green-Ellis). One year after I lamented the fact that Manning was on the verge of making "Manning or Brady" a legitimate argument, Brady has made it laughable again.
What I was wrong about: I expected the Jets to fall much more spectacularly, and while I was mostly right about their flaws (highly overrated QB, poor decision switching Thomas Jones for Tomlinson, a defense with too many egos and not enough discipline), they are good enough to make the playoffs, and they have enough talent to make some noise again this year. So, by default, I was wrong in calling for the Jets demise this year. Leading the Jets to consecutive playoff appearances is quite the feat for Rex Ryan.
What doesn't make any sense: The Miami Dolphins: 1 and 7 at home, 6 and 1 on the road. Miami fans have had a rough year, between the Heat having to teach their fans how to be fans, and the Dolphins having the exact opposite of a home court advantage.
AFC North
Preseason predictions: Pittsburgh (12-4), Baltimore (10-6), Cincinnati (7-9), Cleveland (4-12)
Through week sixteen: Pittsburgh (11-4), Baltimore (11-4), Cleveland (5-10), Cincinnati (4-11)
What I was right about: in the preseason I stated that "even with a porous offensive line the Steelers will reassert themselves as the top team in the AFC north." So far, so good. I also correctly projected a playoff year for Baltimore, and a regression from the Division Champ to out of the playoffs for Cincinnati, as well as a poor year for Cleveland.
What I was wrong about: I also wrote about Cincinnati that "Cincinnati has all kinds of warning flags for me: a QB who has looked progressively more washed up with every year, a RB who has no heart and poor secondary numbers, two big mouthed diva WRs, and a coach who nobody is sure is actually good." Even with realizing all of that I didn't devalue the Bengals enough. This is how bad the Bengals season was: a co-worker of mine, a life long Bengals fan, finally decided enough was enough this year, and he dumped the team. That's right, he disowned them, held a multi-week search for a new team, and finally settled on the New York Jets. I can't say I condone this action, but I at least appreciate what drove him to it.
What doesn't make any sense: I'm still puzzled by Cleveland giving millions of dollars to Jake Delhomme's corpse. It doesn't make any more sense now than it did at the time. Thank God, for the city of Cleveland's sake, that Delhomme got hurt. Only Jake's play could make Colt McCoy look like a franchise savior.
AFC South
Preseason predictions: Indianapolis (13-3), Houston (11-5), Tennessee (8-8), Jacksonville (8-8)
Through week sixteen: Indianapolis (9-6), Jacksonville (8-7), Tennessee (6-9), Houston (5-10)
What I was right about: Check out my quote from the preseason and tell me this isn't hauntingly prophetic: "the Colts have become like a bad horror movie: every time you think they are dead you walk away, fail to finish the deed, then they come back and maul you. Someone needs to cut their head off, but looking at this group I'm not sure anyone is capable of it." Now, flash forward to week 14. The Colts are 6-6, the Jags are in control of the division, even Houston and Tennessee have outside chances. Three weeks later, and none of the group were capable of finishing the Colts off. Somehow, this team is going to be in the playoffs again, as the division champs again.
What I was wrong about: I vastly overrated Houston's ability to capitalize on all their talent. They should have just collectively retired after beating the Colts week one. That was the high point of their season.
What doesn't make any sense: Ok, the idea that Peyton Manning is playing with a group of players so inferior to Tom Brady this year is ridiculous. Peyton, welcome to Tom's world: playing with castoffs, late round draft picks, and washed up veterans. With the lone exception of a two year honeymoon with Randy Moss, that's been his entire career. You know, while you've been berating a few guys by the names of Harrison, James, Faulk, Wayne, and Clark. The Manning myth is the most impressive thing the NFL has ever constructed.
AFC West
Preseason predictions: Oakland Raiders (9-7), San Diego Charges (8-8), Denver Broncos (7-9), Kansas City (6-10)
Through week sixteen: Kansas City (10-5), San Diego (8-7), Oakland (7-8), Denver (4-11)
What I was right about: The Chargers really did find a way to blow the division, and Oakland really did improve quite a bit. My preseason Oakland prediction wasn't actually as crazy as you thought, was it?
What I was wrong about: I vastly underrated the impact that the Chiefs would get out of getting the band back together: Charlie Wise and Romeo Crennel both did wonders for their respective sides of the ball, and for the second time in three years Matt Cassell looks like a competent QB. Thomas Jones just keeps on delivering playoff appearances for whatever team wakes up and realizes he still a productive running back. I'm so glad the Bears dumped him a few years back for Cedric Benson. Jerry and Lovie, you guys are absolute geniuses. (Help me. Lovie has a gun to my head right now. SEND HELP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
What doesn't make any sense: The Chargers have the second best offense in the league, and the best defense in the league. Can we all just agree to fire Norv Turner now, and never rehire him? I feel like I need to hold an intervention for NFL owners. Seriously guys, this never ends well. The Norv train ain't never late.
NFC East
Preseason predictions: Dallas (13-3), NY Giants (10-6), Washington Redskins (8-8), Philadelphia (6-10)
Through week sixteen: Philadelphia (10-5), NY Giants (9-6), Washington (6-9), Dallas (5-10)
What I was right about: Not much. I suppose you can say that I was pretty spot on in my analysis of the New York Giants, even though most in the media didn't like them to return to the playoffs. I was also right in my "why this won't happen" section, when I stated "Wade Phillips outweighs his talent."
What I was wrong about: I clearly stated that Dallas had too much talent to do exactly what they did: crap the bed, or billion dollar stadium, so to speak. Can we also agree never to hire Wade Phillips again? If only I'd followed my Norv logic through to the end I wouldn't have missed this one by so much. I also didn't envision Michael Vick becoming the captain of the most exciting offense in the NFL. Although I did see it coming after his week one performance, when I picked him up for my fantasy teams.
What doesn't make any sense: Mike Shanahan just benched Donovan McNabb, right after extending him for $78 million dollars, for Rex Grossman. I take back my preseason assessment that you wouldn't mind having Shanahan run your team.
NFC North
Preseason predictions: Green Bay (11-5), Chicago (10-6), Minnesota (7-9), Detroit (6-10)
Through week sixteen: Chicago (11-4), Green Bay (9-6), Minnesota (6-9), Detroit (5-10)
What I was right about: Almost everything; in fact, were it not for a multitude of injuries for Green Bay I'm thinking I might have been dead on. I told you that the Bears would win just enough for management to extend Lovie. And I couldn't be more excited about it. The man truly is a coaching genius. Who's Mike Ditka? (PLEASE SEND HELP. I'M AFRAID LOVIE IS GOING TO STAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND SINCE HE WILL ALMOST UNDOUBTEDLY MAIL THIS WEEK'S GAME IN, A TERRIBLE ... I MEAN, GREAT STRATEGY. I SAID GREAT STRATEGY LOVIE. WAIT, LOVIE .... NOOOOOOOOOOOOO!)
What I was wrong about: Pretty much nothing except for not projecting that Green Bay would look more like a trauma ward and less like a football team this year.
What doesn't make any sense: Why does Brian Urlacher not care anymore? Did last year really mellow him out this much? While watching the Bears get ripped apart by New England the most depressing part of the game was that nobody seemed to care. Three years ago Urlacher would have ended someone on the sidelines, on the field, something. What happened big guy? Who knew your heart was actually located in the wrist?
NFC South
Preseason predictions: New Orleans (14-2), Carolina (11-5), Atlanta (9-7), Tampa Bay (5-11)
Through week sixteen: Atlanta (12-3), New Orleans (11-4), Tampa Bay (9-6), Carolina (2-13)
What I was right about: The streak of non-concurrent division winners continues ... which I mentioned in the section about why my prediction for this division would not happen. Crap.
What I was wrong about: I refuse to believe that I picked Carolina to go 11-5 this year. This part of the picks section had to have been hijacked by The Wiese. There is no way that I would have ever typed the words "I believe in Matt Moore."
What doesn't make any sense: Why I was stupid enough to pick Carolina to go 11-5. On the whole I didn't do too bad this year. But this pick is pretty embarrassing. Even Lovie is laughing at me.
NFC West
Preseason predictions: San Francisco (11-5), Arizona (8-8), St. Louis (5-11), Seattle (4-12)
Through week sixteen: St. Louis (7-8), Seattle (6-9), San Francisco (5-10), Arizona (5-10)
What I was right about: That's a good question. I guess I was right about this division not being any good, and being "super weak." I was so right about that read that we are getting the following promo this Sunday night: "Rams! Seahawks! A five hundred or worse playoff team is only sixty minutes from being crowned. A playoff play in on NBC!" Even Collinsworth can't sell this right?
What I was wrong about: I'm sorry Mike Singletary. I believed in you. I'll still wear your jersey proudly. But you were not very good as a coach.
What doesn't make any sense: I'm having trauma echos about betting against the NFC West champ in the first round, and I don't even know who they champ will be yet. The reason? Betting three straight rounds against "the worst team to ever make the playoffs" two years ago (9-7 Arizona) only to have them march to the Super Bowl. History can't repeat itself ... right?
Preseason Playoff Predictions
AFC PLAYOFF TEAMS (by seed)
1. Indianapolis Colts
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
3. New England Patriots
4. Oakland Raiders
5. Houston Texans
6. Baltimore Ravens
NFC PLAYOFF TEAMS (by seed)
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Dallas Cowboys
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Green Bay Packers
5. Carolina Panthers
6. New York Giants
Likely Playoff Teams through week 16.
AFC:
1. New England
2. Pittsburgh
3. Kansas City
4. Indianapolis
5. Baltimore
6. NY Jets
(this could be shifted upside down if Pittsburgh and KC lose, and the Colts, Ravens, and Jets win. Then it would be 1. New England, 2. Baltimore, 3. Indianapolis, 4. Kansas City, 5. NY Jets and 6. Pittsburgh. And yes, I have that memorized. Seeding is important for playoff picks. And even though it isn't likely to happen, I suppose the Jags beaten corpse could win, with the Colts losing, resulting in the Colts missing the playoffs and the Jags as the 4 seed. Please?)
NFC:
1. Atlanta
2. Chicago
3. Philadelphia
4. St. Louis
5. New Orleans
6. Green Bay
(Atlanta could still lose the number one seed or division heading into the final week. Fear the Panthers Atlanta. This is John Fox's last game, and like I ... I mean, like The Wiese said earlier this year, the Panthers are going all out for him. It's time for win number three baby!
...
...
I'm back. Beyond that, Seattle could be the 4 seed if they beat St. Louis, the Bears could be the one seed if they win and Atlanta and New Orleans lose, the NY Giants could be in if they win and Green Bay falls to Chicago. But that six looks likely to me. So there.)
And so, in comparison, I (most likely) got four of six AFC teams correct (New England, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Indy) while missing on the AFC west (KC not Oakland) and the other wild card team (NY Jets, not Houston ... never Houston). I only got one certain, and no more than two NFC teams correct (New Orleans and probably Green Bay.
50%
That's the NFL baby. At least my preseason prediction for the Super Bowl (New Orleans over Pittsburgh) is still alive. Although I could have sworn I took Pittsburgh. Maybe The Wiese wrote that part too, huh Lovie?
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