And here we are, once again, ready for some football. Even watching Alabama tear Michigan apart couldn't change one fact, one reality: the NFL is king. And, at the present time, no sport (professional or "amateur") can even lay siege to the crown. Concussion worries, official lockout, player safety concerns at an all time high... none of it matters. Fantasy football, 60 inch home TVs with HD, gambling... it all points to the NFL as king.
Before we dive in, in case you are curious about previous years, here are links to my 2011, 2010, and 2009 (In the 2009 article you'll find a recap of the 2008, 2007 and 2006 preseason super bowl predictions from my previous blog as well).
Last year I picked the Pats correctly to win the AFC, and in 2010 I picked the Steelers correctly to win the AFC. In 2009 I failed to pick anyone correctly for the Super Bowl (blame that one on the Jay Cutler honeymoon phase of my life), but in 2008 I picked the Steelers correctly to win it all. In 2007 I picked the Pats correctly to win the AFC, and then, in 2006, I had picked the Colts to beat the Bears in the super bowl (still wish I could take that one back). Long story short, I've managed to correctly pick at least one Super Bowl contender in five of six years. Looking closer, however, and I can safely place much of the responsibility for that great record on the fact that I've ridden the Pats and Steelers hard each year. This year? Well, you'll just have to see if I'm still riding those teams, or if I'm going to go outside of the box for the AFC (the NFC, mind you, I'm only 1 for 6 on in the last six years, and zero for my last five).
As a final disclaimer, I don't take the time to research who plays who to determine exact records. The records below, in fact, couldn't actually happen (probably anyway) as they probably don't add up. On to the picks:
AFC East
1. New England (12-4)
2. Buffalo (9-7)
3. NY Jets (7-9)
4. Miami (6-10)
The reasoning: New England has the NFL's most high octane passing game and just added a deep target for the first time since Randy Moss was breaking records in their 16-0* year. They also added a great deal of depth to the defense, which should help given that their team was one of the worst on defense last year. The big reason to pick New England here is that, in light of their defeat last year in the Super Bowl, you can expect Brady and company to be hyper focused on winning it all. Brady is still one ring short of being able to open the Brady V Montana book for greatest of all time, and after watching what happened to Manning I'm sure Tom realizes tomorrow is not guaranteed to anyone. The rest of the division depends heavily on what you believe about quarter back play and defense. I believe that Fitzpatrick is a much better QB than Sanchez/Tebow (Sanchbow? Tebez?) or Tannehill (usually not a good sign when your rookie QB couldn't complete passes with accuracy in college). In fact, the only reason that I'm not placing the Jets dead last in this division is because I really think Tannehill will be that bad. I also believe the Bills defense will be improved, while the Jets continues to back slide (Revis is the only thing holding them together). Long story short, this division is still the Patriots to lose, and I don't think they will.
AFC North
1. Baltimore (11-5)
2. Pittsburgh (9-7)
3. Cincinnati (7-9)
4. Cleveland (3-13)
The reasoning: first, after picking Cleveland to make the playoffs last year (I plea concussion on that one), I had to put them back down. I don't believe drafting modern era Chris Wienke was the right move, let alone starting him, and I just could see it being another long year in Cleveland (besides, when was the last time something went well for Cleveland sports fans). Beyond Cleveland, the division is a bit of a toss up for me. Baltimore's defense is aging and the loss of Terrell Suggs will hurt quite a bit. But Pittsburgh's defense is equally old and the Pittsburgh offense is minus their starting running back and their offensive line is in shambles (for, by my count, year ten in a row). I believe in Big Ben much more than Joe Flacco, and Pittsburgh's receivers are, on paper, better than Baltimore's are. Still, something just tells me that the Steelers are in for a down year, and that Baltimore will do just enough to put it together to win the division. As for the Bengals, I don't believe in their coach, and I think that a regression back makes sense for this team. Moving forward, however, this division may be Cincinnati's to lose as the Ravens and Steelers continue to age.
AFC South
1. Houston Texans (11-5)
2. Tennessee Titans (10-6)
3. Indianapolis Colts (5-11)
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13)
The reasoning: Houston always finds a way to play back towards the pack and I don't see that ending this year. I expect a big bounce back year for Chris Johnson in Tennessee, and Jake Locker has all the tools to become a quality starting QB in the NFL. I think that Luck will have a more successful rookie year than Peyton did, but much of that is due to the change in NFL rules since 1998. As for the Jags, I'm not sure I like much of anything coming out of Jacksonville this year. I would say there is an outside chance that the Colts could make a run at this division, but I still can't buy into the Rookie QB leading a ten game turn around angle. So, for now, this is the best stab at it.
AFC West
1. Kansas City (11-5)
2. San Diego (8-8)
3. Denver (8-8)
4. Oakland (6-10)
The reasoning: This division is an entire toss up and I could easily see any of these four teams ending the year in first. The Chiefs promise to have a tough running game and solid defense, leaving their biggest question mark at QB with Matt Cassel. The Chargers have the most talent of any team in the division, but they also have a history of underachieving greatly and they have Norv Turner inexplicably still entrenched as their head coach. Denver has the biggest question mark of all in Peyton Manning's health. Oakland seems to be mired in an era of "whatever can go wrong will go wrong." In other words, I could see this division end in the exact opposite way I've predicted here and I wouldn't be surprised. But, for now, I see Kansas City and their easier schedule moving up to first.
NFC East
1. Philadelphia (12-4)
2. NY Giants (10-6)
3. Dallas (7-9)
4. Washington (6-10)
The reasoning: The year after the "Dream Team" fell apart in Philly I see some rebound with a defense that looked great at the end of last year and an offense that is capable of scoring in bunches. The Giants always tend to trend backwards after a great year, and I see that staying consistent this year. All the injuries in Dallas already bode for a long year for the team and Washington should make some strides with a QB under center more talented than Grossman, but I still see them bringing up the rear in this division.
NFC North
1. Chicago (13-3)
2. Green Bay (10-6)
3. Detroit (9-7)
4. Minnesota (5-11)
The reasoning: the biggest concern that I have about picking my Bears to finish first is Urlacher's bulky knee. I have a hard time believing that he will be able to play at anything close to 100% this year, and, as we've seen in the past, Urlacher tends to be the key to a successful defense in Chicago. The Bears have the talent to overcome, but only if Lovie is actually willing to run a defense outside of his Tampa 2 (history indicates he probably won't). That said, the Bears should have by far the most dynamic offense in my life time, if not team history. And, if recent NFL history has shown us anything its that you can skimp on defense if your offense can move the ball. As for Green Bay, I see some regression for them, particularly with no running game or defense to speak of. I see the same for Detroit, and (spoiler) I see this as a lull that leads to their coach getting fired when it carries into next year. Minnesota, playing with three playoff caliber teams in their division, will be lucky to get to five or six wins.
NFC South
1. Atlanta (12-4)
2. New Orleans (10-6)
3. Carolina (7-9)
4. Tampa Bay (6-10)
The reasoning: With New Orleans hamstrung by suspensions I see the door opening for the Falcons to make the jump, so to speak, into the upper half of the NFC title contenders. I still see New Orleans, led by Drew Brees, making a push for a good record. I think that Cam Newton will struggle more than people expect in year two (given his final eight games last year) and I think that there is plenty of work to do in Tampa before the Bucs are ready to compete for the division.
NFC West
1. San Francisco (10-6)
2. St. Louis (9-7)
3. Seattle (7-9)
4. Arizona (4-12)
The reasoning: I'm still not sold on this division as being anything other than a cakewalk for out of division foes, but I suppose that San Francisco's defensive advantage and coaching advantage gives them the edge here. I think St. Louis will see a big bounce back from Sam Bradford, and Jeff Fisher tends to be able to take even poor teams into the average category. From there on out Seattle is starting a rookie third round pick, and Arizona is in shambles.
AFC Playoffs (in order of seed)
1. New England
2. Houston
3. Baltimore
4. Kansas City
5. Tennessee
6. Buffalo
NFC Playoffs (in order seed)
1. Chicago
2. Philadelphia
3. Atlanta
4. San Francisco
5. Green Bay
6. New Orleans
First Round:
1. Baltimore over Buffalo
2. Tennessee over Kansas City
3. Atlanta over New Orleans
4. Green Bay over San Francisco
Second Round:
1. New England over Tennessee
2. Baltimore over Houston
3. Chicago over Green Bay
4. Atlanta over Philadelphia
Championship Games:
1. New England over Baltimore
2. Chicago over Atlanta
Super Bowl:
New England over Chicago
And there you have it: the 2012 NFL Preview. I went back to the well with the Patriots as my pick, as well as with Chicago as my pick for the third time in seven years. If it ends up being Pats and Bears right now you have to go with the Pats given their experience and their huge coaching advantage. But, if history is any indicator, there will be far more turnover among playoff teams than shown here. No matter what, it should be a fun time.
Monday, September 3, 2012
Tuesday, June 19, 2012
Impromptu Live Blog of Heat-Thunder Game 4
After turning on Game 4 and watching at least 6 terrible calls all go in Miami's favor in about 5 game minutes, I decided that if David Stern was going to throw all his power behind winning Miami an NBA title, the least I could do was live blog the latest example of the NBA throwing a game through shoddy officiating. By now you know the drill:
5:45 left in the third - Miami is up six. LeBron isolates, elbows Westbrook in the chest, and isn't called for the offensive foul. This is the secret history of this game and this series: if OKC did the same thing it would be a foul, but if Miami does it there is no call. The way you swing a game if you're told to "influence it" is by getting enough fouls on the team you want to lose that they can't play aggressive defense anymore. The officials have done that exceptionally well tonight.
5:01 left in the third - Wade jumps, makes minimal contact with Harden, and then a foul is called. SAME EXACT THING HAPPENS on the other side and no foul is called. Literally identical play. The officiating is sickening in this game. If you do nothing else look to the 5:01 mark in the third quarter to see how fully in Miami's camp the officials are.
3:40 left in the third - Durant can't get a foul call after isolating Wade. On a previous play he drives baseline, adjusts, gets LeBron to hit him in the head with his arm, and then hits the layup. Did he get fouled even when LeBron hit him in the body and head? NO! Of course he didn't. In other news, blogging about this has at least stopped me from yelling at the TV, which is probably healthy. I think at the end of the day I have such a hard time imagining LeBron winning an NBA title that the fact that the NBA is so clearly trying to get him to win by tilting the officiating his way just is hard for me to stomach. This is the same league, however, that made the decision to throw the lottery to give the number one pick to the team it owned this year, however, so I guess I shouldn't be too surprised.
3:16 left in the third - Close up on Pat Riley ... I feel as if he is evil. In other news, LeBron flops to the ground when Derrick Fisher runs into him. That's another line here: the Heat flop so often Vlade Divac is blushing. Even the announcers are calling it now, after Westbrook drove to the hoop, got shoved, and no call, saying "he got pushed!"
2:12 left in the third - Another foul on James Harden, leading to the announcers saying "how is that on Harden?" Well, it's on Harden because LeBron pushed him, and LeBron already told us he doesn't foul, so it couldn't have been on him. You know it's bad when the duo calling the game are making noise about how terrible the calls are.
1:38 left in the third - nearing the end of the third and the Thunder, who shot more free throws in the NBA than any team other than Denver, have only now gotten to 10 free throws. Maddening. LeBron posts up Harden, who passes it to Bosh, but somehow goes to the free throw line. On a pass. OKC is playing sloppy now, and I have a feeling that the end of this blog is coming sooner rather than later.
End of third - Miami is simply being allowed to play much more physically than OKC, and that is why they will be your 2012 NBA champions. Not because they are more talented, because they aren't. They will win because the NBA wants them to win, and to help them out they are allowing the officials (or instructing them, perhaps) to call the game differently for Miami than OKC. It's like an umpire who has a strike zone from shoulders to knees for one team and the size of a grapefruit for the other. I hope that OKC comes back and finds a way to overcome playing against the Heat and the Thunder, but I doubt they will. If Miami fails to win this year they should break up the team, because they're being given every chance.
5:45 left in the third - Miami is up six. LeBron isolates, elbows Westbrook in the chest, and isn't called for the offensive foul. This is the secret history of this game and this series: if OKC did the same thing it would be a foul, but if Miami does it there is no call. The way you swing a game if you're told to "influence it" is by getting enough fouls on the team you want to lose that they can't play aggressive defense anymore. The officials have done that exceptionally well tonight.
5:01 left in the third - Wade jumps, makes minimal contact with Harden, and then a foul is called. SAME EXACT THING HAPPENS on the other side and no foul is called. Literally identical play. The officiating is sickening in this game. If you do nothing else look to the 5:01 mark in the third quarter to see how fully in Miami's camp the officials are.
3:40 left in the third - Durant can't get a foul call after isolating Wade. On a previous play he drives baseline, adjusts, gets LeBron to hit him in the head with his arm, and then hits the layup. Did he get fouled even when LeBron hit him in the body and head? NO! Of course he didn't. In other news, blogging about this has at least stopped me from yelling at the TV, which is probably healthy. I think at the end of the day I have such a hard time imagining LeBron winning an NBA title that the fact that the NBA is so clearly trying to get him to win by tilting the officiating his way just is hard for me to stomach. This is the same league, however, that made the decision to throw the lottery to give the number one pick to the team it owned this year, however, so I guess I shouldn't be too surprised.
3:16 left in the third - Close up on Pat Riley ... I feel as if he is evil. In other news, LeBron flops to the ground when Derrick Fisher runs into him. That's another line here: the Heat flop so often Vlade Divac is blushing. Even the announcers are calling it now, after Westbrook drove to the hoop, got shoved, and no call, saying "he got pushed!"
2:12 left in the third - Another foul on James Harden, leading to the announcers saying "how is that on Harden?" Well, it's on Harden because LeBron pushed him, and LeBron already told us he doesn't foul, so it couldn't have been on him. You know it's bad when the duo calling the game are making noise about how terrible the calls are.
1:38 left in the third - nearing the end of the third and the Thunder, who shot more free throws in the NBA than any team other than Denver, have only now gotten to 10 free throws. Maddening. LeBron posts up Harden, who passes it to Bosh, but somehow goes to the free throw line. On a pass. OKC is playing sloppy now, and I have a feeling that the end of this blog is coming sooner rather than later.
End of third - Miami is simply being allowed to play much more physically than OKC, and that is why they will be your 2012 NBA champions. Not because they are more talented, because they aren't. They will win because the NBA wants them to win, and to help them out they are allowing the officials (or instructing them, perhaps) to call the game differently for Miami than OKC. It's like an umpire who has a strike zone from shoulders to knees for one team and the size of a grapefruit for the other. I hope that OKC comes back and finds a way to overcome playing against the Heat and the Thunder, but I doubt they will. If Miami fails to win this year they should break up the team, because they're being given every chance.
Friday, May 18, 2012
And another thing...
Just because... enjoy this video and understand why being a Cubs fan is such a gift. "We are one with the Cubs, with the Cubs we're in love."
Farwell Kid K
So I sat down to write a paper for class, and here I am. I think we can all agree that it's more important for me to take my time waxing poetic on one of my all time favorite athletes than to be spending time on an examination of the inter-organizational politics that my employer engages in. Right? Besides, it's sunny, 80 degrees, I have a porch swing to sit on with my laptop, and it's Friday.
Kerry Wood really has been with me my entire life as far as being a baseball fan is concerned. My experience as a big sports fan dates back to 1992: I remember watching bits and pieces of the Bulls - Blazers finals and rooting for the Bulls. By 1993 I was watching the playoffs and thoroughly rooting for the Bulls against the Knicks and the Suns, could name the entire starting lineup plus a few subs easily, and started collecting basketball cards. By 1994 I was so head over heels for the NBA that I was actively debating the merits of the Bulls resigning Horace Grant to my grandmother. (Keep in mind, I was eight at the time; incidentally, he signed with the Magic, the first of many times that what I wanted my team to do was not played out by what they actually did). Somewhere in the summer of 1995, with baseball just back from a strike and MJ having just returned to the NBA I watched a Cubs game with my father. It was against the Atlanta Braves, and Greg Maddux was starting for the Braves. It took me a few years to figure out that the jerk who dominated the Cubs used to play for us. It took a few more years for me to be rooting for him when he returned to the Cubs.
By 1997 I was starting to learn baseball the same way I learned the NBA: via the backs of sports cards. The 1998 season was my coming out party as a Cubs fan. That was the Summer of McGwire and Sosa: Sammy hit 20 HRs in June alone, on his way to 66 and the MVP, and Big Mac slammed 70 on his way to a record that was celebrated, briefly, until it was tainted. The moment that won me over to the Cubs, however, was a game pitched by young Kerry Wood against the Houston Astros. His fifth career start. May 6th 1998. Nine innings pitched. One infield single the only hit allowed. No walks. No hit batters. Twenty Strike Outs.
Think about that: Twenty Strike Outs. Even at the young age of 12 I knew what that meant. That was Roger Clemens territory. That was the all time record. That was "holy shit" status. Keep in mind that the Cubs in the mid 1990s, as I became a fan, were a pretty awful group. Wood, along with Sosa's home run hitting, suddenly made us viable. We made the playoffs and weren't really sad when the Braves swept us. We were on the way up, and we had the next great pitcher on our team. Sosa was a fan favorite, but Wood meant so much more because he came from our minor league system, so he was OUR player.
That offseason, I remember sitting in the living room of my grandparents house on a Sunday afternoon when the news broke that Wood would miss the entire 1999 season and would have Tommy John surgery. I was devastated, and, apparently, so were the Cubs: they didn't show up for 1999. Or 2000. Neither did Wood. He started to rebound in 2001. We started to see the promise, but the team continued to be mostly Sosa and Wood. We needed more. 2003 the reinforcements arrived. With Wood a full fledged ace pitcher (striking out 266 batters) we had a big four of sorts: Wood, Mark Prior (the next Doc Gooden), Carlos Zambrano (nobody knew what to make of him but he was really good), and Matt Clement. We made it to the playoffs, and faced Atlanta again. This time we weren't going to be happy to be there.
We took Atlanta out in a classic Cubs ulcer inducing five games. Wood, as was fitting, was the game five starter. We rolled out to three games to one series lead against the Marlins, with Game five set in Florida. I spoke with my old man who was almost giddy about the impending Cubs National League pennant. Keep in mind, the last time the Cubs had even WON the pennant was 1945 (and, of course, the series in 1908), so he was pretty excited. I told him I had a bad feeling that we needed to finish the series in game five, or we would lose. And he looked at me and said "that's stupid: we have Prior and Wood going at home in games six and seven. We'll be fine."
You know that scene in Jurassic Park where Ian Malcolm's character says that he hates being right? Well, I hated being right. The Cubs lost game five, then Bartman and (most importantly) Dusty's incompetence and Alex Gonzalez' inability to field a double play ball led to the game six collapse. Still, game seven was at home, and we had Kerry Wood, Kid K himself, ready to take us to the World Series. It seemed meant to be. Wood allowed the Marlins to jump to a three run lead, and all seemed lost. But then Wood crushed a three run home run ... and there was hope again. Think about that: the pitcher gives up the three runs, then reinvigorates the crowd with a three run blast of his own. New game. I was at my youth group, with the game on the big screen, and ran around the basketball court, full speed, with my hand in a fist in the air as Wood rounded the bases. Game on!
Alas, it was in no way meant to be. Wood collapsed, and so did the Cubs. I watched the final outs from a small black and white TV in my mother's office. Hiding. Crushed. Praying for a miracle that wouldn't come. Knowing fully what it meant to be a Cubs fan. Still, we rationalized: we signed Maddux, improved the team, and would be back the next year. Except we weren't: Wood and Prior spent much of the year hurt, and the team collapsed late. Wood battled through numerous injuries throughout 2004, 2005 and 2006. By the end of the 2006 season it was evident: Prior was done and so was Wood. The Cubs dynamic 1-2 punch was for naught, and the era was over.
But Wood wasn't ready to let it be so. He returned as a reliever, and helped the team to a surprise division title in 2007 and was the All-star closer of the 2008 team that had the best record in the league. Disappointingly in 2007, and shockingly in 2008, the Cubs were swept from the playoffs on both occasions. Wood left for more money with Cleveland in the offseason, and it seemed his run as a Cub may have finished.
But Chicago is in Kerry's heart, and he returned in 2011 to pitch for the Cubs, taking millions upon millions of dollars less than he was offered. He was good last year, but the team wasn't. He was not so good this year, and so on this day he decided to hang it up. The last batter he faced struck out on three pitches. Hardly a perfect bookend to his career, but a bookend nonetheless.
Wood is not a Hall of Fame player. Wood is not even an all time Cubs great, at least not statistically. But he played a major part of four Cubs playoff teams. And more importantly, he became a latter day Mr. Cub, resonating with the fans in a way not seen since Sandberg at least, if not Santo and Banks. Wood said in his press conference that he hopes to stay with the team in some capacity, and I hope and trust that they will find a way to make that happen. Watching his son run out of the dugout to hug him after his strikeout, seeing the standing ovation, made me wish, for the first time this year, that I was at Wrigley. Kid K, no longer a kid, but instead a grizzled veteran, fades into the sunset.
And, again, this is why we love sports. We had the opportunity to watch Kerry Wood grow from the baby faced Texas Phenom who struck out twenty. We saw him start to reach his potential after the first round of injuries. We saw him reinvent himself after the second round of injuries. And we saw him come back home, taking far less to finish where he started. Kerry, thank you for the memories, and for guiding me into become a fan of the Chicago Cubs. I am fortunate to bleed Cubbie Blue in all I do, and you are as responsible for that as anyone. I'll always remember the Kid K poster that hung in my room, showing an on-fire fastball. Sports allow us to dream, and to be young. When you're a child you take that for granted. With a bit more perspective and real world responsibilities, I can honestly say that it is a gift. It'll be different without you Kerry. Thanks for understanding what makes the Cubs, Cubs fans, and Wrigley so special.
Kerry Wood really has been with me my entire life as far as being a baseball fan is concerned. My experience as a big sports fan dates back to 1992: I remember watching bits and pieces of the Bulls - Blazers finals and rooting for the Bulls. By 1993 I was watching the playoffs and thoroughly rooting for the Bulls against the Knicks and the Suns, could name the entire starting lineup plus a few subs easily, and started collecting basketball cards. By 1994 I was so head over heels for the NBA that I was actively debating the merits of the Bulls resigning Horace Grant to my grandmother. (Keep in mind, I was eight at the time; incidentally, he signed with the Magic, the first of many times that what I wanted my team to do was not played out by what they actually did). Somewhere in the summer of 1995, with baseball just back from a strike and MJ having just returned to the NBA I watched a Cubs game with my father. It was against the Atlanta Braves, and Greg Maddux was starting for the Braves. It took me a few years to figure out that the jerk who dominated the Cubs used to play for us. It took a few more years for me to be rooting for him when he returned to the Cubs.
By 1997 I was starting to learn baseball the same way I learned the NBA: via the backs of sports cards. The 1998 season was my coming out party as a Cubs fan. That was the Summer of McGwire and Sosa: Sammy hit 20 HRs in June alone, on his way to 66 and the MVP, and Big Mac slammed 70 on his way to a record that was celebrated, briefly, until it was tainted. The moment that won me over to the Cubs, however, was a game pitched by young Kerry Wood against the Houston Astros. His fifth career start. May 6th 1998. Nine innings pitched. One infield single the only hit allowed. No walks. No hit batters. Twenty Strike Outs.
Think about that: Twenty Strike Outs. Even at the young age of 12 I knew what that meant. That was Roger Clemens territory. That was the all time record. That was "holy shit" status. Keep in mind that the Cubs in the mid 1990s, as I became a fan, were a pretty awful group. Wood, along with Sosa's home run hitting, suddenly made us viable. We made the playoffs and weren't really sad when the Braves swept us. We were on the way up, and we had the next great pitcher on our team. Sosa was a fan favorite, but Wood meant so much more because he came from our minor league system, so he was OUR player.
That offseason, I remember sitting in the living room of my grandparents house on a Sunday afternoon when the news broke that Wood would miss the entire 1999 season and would have Tommy John surgery. I was devastated, and, apparently, so were the Cubs: they didn't show up for 1999. Or 2000. Neither did Wood. He started to rebound in 2001. We started to see the promise, but the team continued to be mostly Sosa and Wood. We needed more. 2003 the reinforcements arrived. With Wood a full fledged ace pitcher (striking out 266 batters) we had a big four of sorts: Wood, Mark Prior (the next Doc Gooden), Carlos Zambrano (nobody knew what to make of him but he was really good), and Matt Clement. We made it to the playoffs, and faced Atlanta again. This time we weren't going to be happy to be there.
We took Atlanta out in a classic Cubs ulcer inducing five games. Wood, as was fitting, was the game five starter. We rolled out to three games to one series lead against the Marlins, with Game five set in Florida. I spoke with my old man who was almost giddy about the impending Cubs National League pennant. Keep in mind, the last time the Cubs had even WON the pennant was 1945 (and, of course, the series in 1908), so he was pretty excited. I told him I had a bad feeling that we needed to finish the series in game five, or we would lose. And he looked at me and said "that's stupid: we have Prior and Wood going at home in games six and seven. We'll be fine."
You know that scene in Jurassic Park where Ian Malcolm's character says that he hates being right? Well, I hated being right. The Cubs lost game five, then Bartman and (most importantly) Dusty's incompetence and Alex Gonzalez' inability to field a double play ball led to the game six collapse. Still, game seven was at home, and we had Kerry Wood, Kid K himself, ready to take us to the World Series. It seemed meant to be. Wood allowed the Marlins to jump to a three run lead, and all seemed lost. But then Wood crushed a three run home run ... and there was hope again. Think about that: the pitcher gives up the three runs, then reinvigorates the crowd with a three run blast of his own. New game. I was at my youth group, with the game on the big screen, and ran around the basketball court, full speed, with my hand in a fist in the air as Wood rounded the bases. Game on!
Alas, it was in no way meant to be. Wood collapsed, and so did the Cubs. I watched the final outs from a small black and white TV in my mother's office. Hiding. Crushed. Praying for a miracle that wouldn't come. Knowing fully what it meant to be a Cubs fan. Still, we rationalized: we signed Maddux, improved the team, and would be back the next year. Except we weren't: Wood and Prior spent much of the year hurt, and the team collapsed late. Wood battled through numerous injuries throughout 2004, 2005 and 2006. By the end of the 2006 season it was evident: Prior was done and so was Wood. The Cubs dynamic 1-2 punch was for naught, and the era was over.
But Wood wasn't ready to let it be so. He returned as a reliever, and helped the team to a surprise division title in 2007 and was the All-star closer of the 2008 team that had the best record in the league. Disappointingly in 2007, and shockingly in 2008, the Cubs were swept from the playoffs on both occasions. Wood left for more money with Cleveland in the offseason, and it seemed his run as a Cub may have finished.
But Chicago is in Kerry's heart, and he returned in 2011 to pitch for the Cubs, taking millions upon millions of dollars less than he was offered. He was good last year, but the team wasn't. He was not so good this year, and so on this day he decided to hang it up. The last batter he faced struck out on three pitches. Hardly a perfect bookend to his career, but a bookend nonetheless.
Wood is not a Hall of Fame player. Wood is not even an all time Cubs great, at least not statistically. But he played a major part of four Cubs playoff teams. And more importantly, he became a latter day Mr. Cub, resonating with the fans in a way not seen since Sandberg at least, if not Santo and Banks. Wood said in his press conference that he hopes to stay with the team in some capacity, and I hope and trust that they will find a way to make that happen. Watching his son run out of the dugout to hug him after his strikeout, seeing the standing ovation, made me wish, for the first time this year, that I was at Wrigley. Kid K, no longer a kid, but instead a grizzled veteran, fades into the sunset.
And, again, this is why we love sports. We had the opportunity to watch Kerry Wood grow from the baby faced Texas Phenom who struck out twenty. We saw him start to reach his potential after the first round of injuries. We saw him reinvent himself after the second round of injuries. And we saw him come back home, taking far less to finish where he started. Kerry, thank you for the memories, and for guiding me into become a fan of the Chicago Cubs. I am fortunate to bleed Cubbie Blue in all I do, and you are as responsible for that as anyone. I'll always remember the Kid K poster that hung in my room, showing an on-fire fastball. Sports allow us to dream, and to be young. When you're a child you take that for granted. With a bit more perspective and real world responsibilities, I can honestly say that it is a gift. It'll be different without you Kerry. Thanks for understanding what makes the Cubs, Cubs fans, and Wrigley so special.
Thursday, May 17, 2012
With Apologies to My Uncle...
I know NBA basketball isn't something many of my readers routinely watch, but I just couldn't resist showing the blatant hypocrisy of the NBA. Watch the follow play, realize that they didn't eject Wade, and that they are not going to suspend him for this either. And then please just know that if anyone on the Bulls, and certainly on the Pacers, had done this exact thing they would have been suspended for a game. This was a blatant cheap shot, and shows you all you need to know about the character of this Heat team that the NBA wants to win the title this year.
I HATE the Pacers ... but I couldn't be rooting more for them right now. Down with Miami.
I HATE the Pacers ... but I couldn't be rooting more for them right now. Down with Miami.
Sunday, May 13, 2012
Presidential Campaigning 101 - Polarize and Conquer
A few years ago I wrote this post, breaking down how the Republican Party had gone from a seemingly insurmountable advantage to trailing Democrats everywhere. It's hard to believe it's been three years since I wrote that post, but we've learned a few things since that point. We've seen more and more rapid turnover in Washington, a natural product of an environment that is so negative and divisive. The great mystery of the US congress has always been clearly articulated in approval ratings. If you ask the general American citizen if they approve of the job congress is doing, they will say "no" (well, at least 80% of them). If, however, you ask them if they approve of the job their representative is doing, they typically say yes. Recently, this has shifted a bit more, and we are seeing larger swaths of incumbents losing primaries, and being forced out of office.
I could go on forever about the advantages of term limits in Congress, as well as the need to have fresh blood, but the problem with the current environment is that what we are seeing, time and again in these elections, is not the American people voting to stop the gridlock. On the contrary, every time they vote out at Dick Lugar (a good man who was, admittedly, a relic who probably needed to retire gracefully anyway) the voters are replacing one person with a more extreme version of that person. As the saying goes, you get what you pay for, and in this case the American people are paying for extremist blowhards, and will get more intense gridlock as a result.
And that takes me back to my original point, about my post on the GOP three years ago. In it, I said this regarding the strategy of George W Bush's "brain," Karl Rove:
"Rove's political strategies, detailed well in many places, basically came down to one thing: polarize the electorate. For team Bush this meant using as many red herrings as possible. Rove believed that if they made the election about the right issues they could mobilize the Religious Right, boosting the number of guaranteed Republican voters. To that end, Rove used any issue the Right would fall in behind, most successfully gay marriage and abortion. The 2004 election showed the success of this strategy, as eleven states passed amendments codifying marriage as being between a man and a woman. The conservative turn out in these states helped Bush out, particularly in Ohio, a state thought to be 2004's version of Florida."
Does any of this sound familiar? It should: in this primary season we've already seen Roe V Wade continue to come under fire, courtesy of Rick Santorum, and now we see the gay marriage topic rear its' head yet again. Couple this with Mitt Romney's recent push to convince the American people that he is actually running against Jimmy Carter, and you'll see what the strategy is: set up a straw man, knock it down, and hope the American people buy it. McCain failed to effectively run a polarizing campaign, and in the minds of many GOP big shots this was his fatal error. The Democrats are by no means innocent in this, but the GOP does have a history of taking issues on, making them the issue, then not doing anything with them after winning office. Bush won re-election in 2004 vowing to overturn Roe V Wade and to pass a Gay Marriage Amendment to the Constitution. Setting aside whether these issues are truly worth being the issue the government is focusing on (you know, along side world peace, global warming, and infrastructural investments), I'm sure you've noticed that Roe V Wade is still in place, and a Gay Marriage Amendment isn't.
The GOP is the best at polarizing the base, getting the religious right to turn out in droves to vote against the godless liberals, and then not following through with their promises. At the present time it appears that Mitt Romney is going to try to run a campaign closer to those that Rove oversaw and further from the campaign McCain ran. That makes sense from a win at all costs standpoint, but it will serve to only further polarize Washington, which continues to dig this country into a hole we can only hope to get out of. Until the electorate decides they won't reward politicians for polarizing issues they have no intention, or logical way, to deal with, this isn't going to get any better. It really is our fault: we complain about the gridlock and say that nobody in Washington knows how to lead, but then we reward the candidate that takes the more extreme positions. At the end of the day both Romney and Obama will scramble back to the middle in an attempt sway moderate voters. Whichever candidate can appease the base most without alienating the middle of the country will be President a year from now. Think about that, and tell me that this is a logical way to govern a country.
I could go on forever about the advantages of term limits in Congress, as well as the need to have fresh blood, but the problem with the current environment is that what we are seeing, time and again in these elections, is not the American people voting to stop the gridlock. On the contrary, every time they vote out at Dick Lugar (a good man who was, admittedly, a relic who probably needed to retire gracefully anyway) the voters are replacing one person with a more extreme version of that person. As the saying goes, you get what you pay for, and in this case the American people are paying for extremist blowhards, and will get more intense gridlock as a result.
And that takes me back to my original point, about my post on the GOP three years ago. In it, I said this regarding the strategy of George W Bush's "brain," Karl Rove:
"Rove's political strategies, detailed well in many places, basically came down to one thing: polarize the electorate. For team Bush this meant using as many red herrings as possible. Rove believed that if they made the election about the right issues they could mobilize the Religious Right, boosting the number of guaranteed Republican voters. To that end, Rove used any issue the Right would fall in behind, most successfully gay marriage and abortion. The 2004 election showed the success of this strategy, as eleven states passed amendments codifying marriage as being between a man and a woman. The conservative turn out in these states helped Bush out, particularly in Ohio, a state thought to be 2004's version of Florida."
Does any of this sound familiar? It should: in this primary season we've already seen Roe V Wade continue to come under fire, courtesy of Rick Santorum, and now we see the gay marriage topic rear its' head yet again. Couple this with Mitt Romney's recent push to convince the American people that he is actually running against Jimmy Carter, and you'll see what the strategy is: set up a straw man, knock it down, and hope the American people buy it. McCain failed to effectively run a polarizing campaign, and in the minds of many GOP big shots this was his fatal error. The Democrats are by no means innocent in this, but the GOP does have a history of taking issues on, making them the issue, then not doing anything with them after winning office. Bush won re-election in 2004 vowing to overturn Roe V Wade and to pass a Gay Marriage Amendment to the Constitution. Setting aside whether these issues are truly worth being the issue the government is focusing on (you know, along side world peace, global warming, and infrastructural investments), I'm sure you've noticed that Roe V Wade is still in place, and a Gay Marriage Amendment isn't.
The GOP is the best at polarizing the base, getting the religious right to turn out in droves to vote against the godless liberals, and then not following through with their promises. At the present time it appears that Mitt Romney is going to try to run a campaign closer to those that Rove oversaw and further from the campaign McCain ran. That makes sense from a win at all costs standpoint, but it will serve to only further polarize Washington, which continues to dig this country into a hole we can only hope to get out of. Until the electorate decides they won't reward politicians for polarizing issues they have no intention, or logical way, to deal with, this isn't going to get any better. It really is our fault: we complain about the gridlock and say that nobody in Washington knows how to lead, but then we reward the candidate that takes the more extreme positions. At the end of the day both Romney and Obama will scramble back to the middle in an attempt sway moderate voters. Whichever candidate can appease the base most without alienating the middle of the country will be President a year from now. Think about that, and tell me that this is a logical way to govern a country.
Thursday, May 3, 2012
2032 - The End of the NFL
If it wasn't 12:30am, and if I hadn't just finished yet another marathon 16 hour work day, I might get more creative with this post. I might write it in the future tense, as if I was writing a letter back in time from the year 2032. I might write it in the first person, commenting on things historically, and I might make it even entertaining. But it is 12:30am, I did finish yet another marathon 16 hour work day, and so I'm not going to do those things.
What I am going to do is this: I will make a bold proclamation that I know, for a fact, a ton of people won't agree with. I'm going to say something that would make a lot of people sad, and will take joy away from millions upon millions. Because what I'm going to tell you is this: there will be no NFL within many of our lifetimes. And by the year 2032 it will all be very real.
It seems impossible to believe at this point, in a world where the NFL is by far the most powerful sports league in the world. The worst NFL teams are valued at hundreds of millions of dollars. The TV deals the NFL pulls down are measured in the billions. And it captivates all of the United States in a complete way that Major League Baseball, "America's Pastime," never accomplished. The NFL pervades everything; even casual fans are permeated with NFL 365 days a year. Free Agency, the Draft, the Pre Season, Fantasy Football, pick pools, video games ... all of that, and we aren't even talking about the actual games being played. The NFL is King.
Of course, once upon a time, so was cotton. Kingdoms come crashing down in capitalist economies. Ford and GM seemed impenetrable for decades, then seemed as good as dead. The NFL seems unfathomably strong right now, but if you look at it right now you can easily see the crack in the foundation.
Dave Duerson, only 50 years old at the time he took his life, shot himself in the chest. This is not a common way to suicide, but Duerson did so with a purpose: he wanted his brain studied. Duerson was smart; he went to Notre Dame and was a good businessman. But his mind went away far too early, and Duerson knew there was a connection. So even as he couldn't take it anymore, because he was no longer himself, he had the wherewithal to attempt to make it something bigger than himself. Duerson was the first time that I started thinking this, and started struggling with the issues at hand.
The problem is that no matter how many times we've seen professional football players, college football players, and, yes, even high school football players take their own lives or die before their times, the compelling part of the sport is the big hits. I've been outspoken in my opposition to the suspension lengths the NFL put on the New Orleans Saints for the "bounty-gate" saga. My issue is pretty simple: this stuff happens in every locker room, has always happened in every locker room, and the NFL has always thrived on it. As Peter King pointed out, the NFL condemned the Saints, then ran a documentary on its own network about the most fearsome hitters in league history. If that wasn't bad enough, one of the interviews had the individual being profiled talking about bounties being put on him.
My problem with the NFL's penalties is that the NFL, and especially the holier-than-thou commissioner, Mr. Goodell, are taking way too narrow a view. If they really cared about anything other than their liability in current and future lawsuits they would have done something much earlier. But make no mistake, it is the mounting pressure from the more than 1,200 NFL veterans suing the NFL at the present time that is leading to this sudden bout of consciousness on behalf of the Commissioners office.
And it is those lawsuits that will, eventually, lead to the end of the NFL as we know it. It might exist in some distorted form, but by 2032 the landscape will look vastly different. This will happen for a number of reasons. First, the various high schools around the nation will begin to eliminate their football teams as the liability of the lawsuits (which can and will be brought on the schools for injuries stemming to high school games and practices) begins to outweigh the profits for the schools. This will happen rather rapidly, and I wouldn't be surprised if it begins to happen in the next five years. As news of these lawsuits begin to hit closer to home, the compounding effect will be parents refusing to let their children play football. From the pee-wee level up through high school the "talent pool" will dry up.
Colleges will follow suit. Division III schools and Division II schools, garnering less profit from the sport than the major conferences as it is, will be the first to go. Again, liability will lead the way. Eventually you'll still have a few major Division I conferences left; the talent pool won't allow for anything else, and only the Notre Dames and Alabama's of the world will be able to draw enough profit to make it worthwhile. But as the news continues to come in, even the talent pools of those schools won't be able to continue to sustain the team.
The rules will also change, due to liability, to the point where the game isn't even recognizable. Already we see a sport where the quarterback can barely be touched. In ten years you'll have no kickoffs period, no punt returns, no hitting of the quarterback without wrapping him up entirely first (therefore giving him a chance to completely prepare), no down linemen, no pre-snap defensive movement, and no blitzing. All the things which makes the game compelling will go away, and the magnitude of the lawsuits will eventually lead to a zero-sum situation where there is no longer any way to insure a player, nor to gain a profit from the game.
In the end, even the Alabama's of the world will stop recruiting, because there will be no interest. Eventually the NFL will have the reach of the Arena Football League now; a secondary option at 1am if you have a 200 channel sports package. And in its final incarnation the NFL will become what boxing has become: a last ditch effort only for the poor or foreign players willing to do it. Boxing used to get the top athletes; now, LeBron James plays basketball. The NFL will fade the way boxing has, and by 2052 my kids kids will have no clear understanding of what the NFL once was, the same way my generation has no idea what boxing meant and how big Ali was.
Of course, all of this comes to mind today with the news that Junior Seau, only 43 and two years removed from playing in the NFL, took his own life via a gunshot wound to the chest. Seau apparently didn't leave a note, and the answers his family and friends are craving will never be known. They never are in situations like this. But Seau's death will be infinitely more visible that Duerson's, and the next will be more visible than Seau's. The ball is rolling, and as it goes downhill it will pick up more momentum with each instance. My heart is saddened, and my head is spinning. But I have seen the future, and the future doesn't bode well for the NFL. It's hard to believe that even ten years ago, when we talked about the drawbacks of playing football for a career people pointed to Joe Montana and the struggles he has moving around from place to place. If only we knew that losing the ability to walk was the easy part. Losing the ability to think and to function mentally at such a young age... that's not only a tragedy, but it will also be the end of the NFL.
What I am going to do is this: I will make a bold proclamation that I know, for a fact, a ton of people won't agree with. I'm going to say something that would make a lot of people sad, and will take joy away from millions upon millions. Because what I'm going to tell you is this: there will be no NFL within many of our lifetimes. And by the year 2032 it will all be very real.
It seems impossible to believe at this point, in a world where the NFL is by far the most powerful sports league in the world. The worst NFL teams are valued at hundreds of millions of dollars. The TV deals the NFL pulls down are measured in the billions. And it captivates all of the United States in a complete way that Major League Baseball, "America's Pastime," never accomplished. The NFL pervades everything; even casual fans are permeated with NFL 365 days a year. Free Agency, the Draft, the Pre Season, Fantasy Football, pick pools, video games ... all of that, and we aren't even talking about the actual games being played. The NFL is King.
Of course, once upon a time, so was cotton. Kingdoms come crashing down in capitalist economies. Ford and GM seemed impenetrable for decades, then seemed as good as dead. The NFL seems unfathomably strong right now, but if you look at it right now you can easily see the crack in the foundation.
Dave Duerson, only 50 years old at the time he took his life, shot himself in the chest. This is not a common way to suicide, but Duerson did so with a purpose: he wanted his brain studied. Duerson was smart; he went to Notre Dame and was a good businessman. But his mind went away far too early, and Duerson knew there was a connection. So even as he couldn't take it anymore, because he was no longer himself, he had the wherewithal to attempt to make it something bigger than himself. Duerson was the first time that I started thinking this, and started struggling with the issues at hand.
The problem is that no matter how many times we've seen professional football players, college football players, and, yes, even high school football players take their own lives or die before their times, the compelling part of the sport is the big hits. I've been outspoken in my opposition to the suspension lengths the NFL put on the New Orleans Saints for the "bounty-gate" saga. My issue is pretty simple: this stuff happens in every locker room, has always happened in every locker room, and the NFL has always thrived on it. As Peter King pointed out, the NFL condemned the Saints, then ran a documentary on its own network about the most fearsome hitters in league history. If that wasn't bad enough, one of the interviews had the individual being profiled talking about bounties being put on him.
My problem with the NFL's penalties is that the NFL, and especially the holier-than-thou commissioner, Mr. Goodell, are taking way too narrow a view. If they really cared about anything other than their liability in current and future lawsuits they would have done something much earlier. But make no mistake, it is the mounting pressure from the more than 1,200 NFL veterans suing the NFL at the present time that is leading to this sudden bout of consciousness on behalf of the Commissioners office.
And it is those lawsuits that will, eventually, lead to the end of the NFL as we know it. It might exist in some distorted form, but by 2032 the landscape will look vastly different. This will happen for a number of reasons. First, the various high schools around the nation will begin to eliminate their football teams as the liability of the lawsuits (which can and will be brought on the schools for injuries stemming to high school games and practices) begins to outweigh the profits for the schools. This will happen rather rapidly, and I wouldn't be surprised if it begins to happen in the next five years. As news of these lawsuits begin to hit closer to home, the compounding effect will be parents refusing to let their children play football. From the pee-wee level up through high school the "talent pool" will dry up.
Colleges will follow suit. Division III schools and Division II schools, garnering less profit from the sport than the major conferences as it is, will be the first to go. Again, liability will lead the way. Eventually you'll still have a few major Division I conferences left; the talent pool won't allow for anything else, and only the Notre Dames and Alabama's of the world will be able to draw enough profit to make it worthwhile. But as the news continues to come in, even the talent pools of those schools won't be able to continue to sustain the team.
The rules will also change, due to liability, to the point where the game isn't even recognizable. Already we see a sport where the quarterback can barely be touched. In ten years you'll have no kickoffs period, no punt returns, no hitting of the quarterback without wrapping him up entirely first (therefore giving him a chance to completely prepare), no down linemen, no pre-snap defensive movement, and no blitzing. All the things which makes the game compelling will go away, and the magnitude of the lawsuits will eventually lead to a zero-sum situation where there is no longer any way to insure a player, nor to gain a profit from the game.
In the end, even the Alabama's of the world will stop recruiting, because there will be no interest. Eventually the NFL will have the reach of the Arena Football League now; a secondary option at 1am if you have a 200 channel sports package. And in its final incarnation the NFL will become what boxing has become: a last ditch effort only for the poor or foreign players willing to do it. Boxing used to get the top athletes; now, LeBron James plays basketball. The NFL will fade the way boxing has, and by 2052 my kids kids will have no clear understanding of what the NFL once was, the same way my generation has no idea what boxing meant and how big Ali was.
Of course, all of this comes to mind today with the news that Junior Seau, only 43 and two years removed from playing in the NFL, took his own life via a gunshot wound to the chest. Seau apparently didn't leave a note, and the answers his family and friends are craving will never be known. They never are in situations like this. But Seau's death will be infinitely more visible that Duerson's, and the next will be more visible than Seau's. The ball is rolling, and as it goes downhill it will pick up more momentum with each instance. My heart is saddened, and my head is spinning. But I have seen the future, and the future doesn't bode well for the NFL. It's hard to believe that even ten years ago, when we talked about the drawbacks of playing football for a career people pointed to Joe Montana and the struggles he has moving around from place to place. If only we knew that losing the ability to walk was the easy part. Losing the ability to think and to function mentally at such a young age... that's not only a tragedy, but it will also be the end of the NFL.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)