Friday, November 13, 2009

NFL: The Midseason Report

Wow! It's been nearly two months (two months tomorrow, in fact) since I posted here. Let's just say that I've been really busy, and life has gotten in the way. But let's also say that I'll try to do better. We are at the half way point of the NFL season, so it seems like a good time to see how absolutely awful my preseason NFL picks were. So what we'll do is look at my predictions for how the divisions would finish on September 1st, and then see where they are today. Then I'll do some revisionist history, and tell you where I went wrong, and how I see it playing out now. Also, just a reminder that it's not good to make outlandish statements after one week of the NFL season, particularly when you only get to watch a game or two. Without any further ado, here we go:

AFC EAST:

Then: New England (13-3), Miami (9-7), Buffalo (8-8), NY Jets (6-10)

Now: New England (6-2), NY Jets (4-4), Miami (3-5), Buffalo (3-5)

Comments: Not a bad start for me, as New England clearly seems to be the class of the division, and I could easily see Miami finishing second in this division. I wrote back in September that if the Jets were lucky they'd get a Mirer level rookie year from Sanchez, and that seems to be about right. I was wrong about Buffalo, and if nothing else has been driven into my soul about the NFL this year it is this: if you don't have an offensive line, your team is going to suck. Somehow Buffalo is still 3-5, but they are really kind of bad. Thus far I'll take this division as a win.

NEW PREDICTION: New England (12-4), Miami (8-8), NY Jets (7-9) Buffalo (5-11)


AFC North:

Then: Pittsburgh (12-4), Baltimore (11-5), Cincinnati (7-9), Cleveland (5-11)

Now: Pittsburgh (6-2), Cincinnati (6-2), Baltimore (4-4), Cleveland (1-7)

Comments: Ok, so I cheated and put Pittsburgh in 1st place now, even though Cincinnati actually beat them and is in first. But Pittsburgh is going to win this weekend, and that will be that, so they will be in first place. I promise. Beyond that, this division doesn't look too far off. Baltimore's defense got really old overnight, and I wasn't thinking that would happen, so that explains my being off there a bit. I wrote of Cincinnati at the time that "(t)he Bengals might be on the right track, but until I see Carson Palmer healthy again, and until I see that Chad Ochocinco isn't finished, and until I see that Cedric Benson is anything other than a punk ... well, let's just say there are a ton of questions here, including an extremely incompetent owner." That's great analysis if you ask me. By the way, it just so happens that Palmer is healthy, Ocho isn't finished, and Ced Benson is still a punk ... but an extremely talented punk who actually can run the ball. They still have an incompetent owner, but the pieces have begun to gel together. Still, after Pittsburgh beats them this week (come on Steelers!) they will be relegated to Wild Card status. Which is still impressive. Baltimore might be able to make a bit of a run, but they won't be contenders like they were last year. Cleveland? Turns out I thought they were way too good by estimating five wins, or that Mangini was even mediocre. They are really bad; so bad that when the Bears beat them 30-6 nobody was excited because they knew it should have been sixty to six.

NEW PREDICTION: Pittsburgh (12-4), Cincinnati (10-6), Baltimore (9-7), Cleveland (2-14)


AFC SOUTH:


Then: Indianapolis (10-6), Houston (9-7), Tennessee (9-7), Jacksonville (8-8)

Now: Indianapolis (8-0), Houston (5-4), Jacksonville (4-4), Tennessee (2-6)

Comments: Boy did I almost nail this one right on the head. In fact, after Indy fades in the 2nd half (which I think is almost assuredly going to happen due to their injuries) it will make it look even better. My logic was around the table sound, and I could see the Titans going on a 9-1 or 8-2 run from their 0-6 start, making 9-7 a distinct possibility. If Houston could have taken advantage of Indy trying to hand them that game last week then I would have been on cloud 9 here. Still, let's say Indy continues to win games they shouldn't ... this will play out like this:

NEW PREDICTION: Indianapolis (13-3)*, Houston (9-7), Jacksonville (8-8), Tennessee (7-9)

*Let's just say that if I was a gambling man I'd be foaming at the mouth thinking about betting against Indianapolis in the playoffs this year. Their entire D is banged up, they have no running game, and a ton of inexperience in the passing game. And I'll admit it: Peyton Manning has jumped into the pantheon level of QBs, and he is good enough to carry a team. But this team is really bad other than him, Freeney, Wayne and Clark. And four top players isn't enough in the NFL.


AFC West:

Then: San Diego (11-5), Kansas City (7-9), Denver (7-9), Oakland (5-11)

Now: Denver (6-2), San Diego (5-3), Oakland (2-6), Kansas City (1-7)

Comments: Here is my first big "swing and a miss," at least at first glance. The AFC West has taught me a number of things. First, having talent around you and competent people coaching you is more important that being a great QB. For exhibit A, look at Kyle Orton. For exhibit B, look at Matt Cassel. I had both KC and Denver at 7-9 based on their QB for the most part. Cassell looked like the better bet heading into the year, even as I was saying that "Orton isn't a superstar, but he'll be efficient for Denver." But KC has almost no talent around Cassel, and Denver is loaded with talent on offense. My huge miss on KC aside, I was pretty close, and think it'll shake out this way:

NEW PREDICTION: San Diego (11-5), Denver (10-6), KC (3-13), Oakland (3-13)


NFC East:

Then: Philadelphia (12-4), NY Giants (10-6), Dallas (8-8), Washington (6-10)

Now: Dallas (6-2), Philadelphia (5-3), NY Giants (5-4), Washington (2-6)

Comments: I totally underestimated how much of an improvement jettisoning T.O. would make. Romo looks free, Miles Austin came out of semi-nowhere to become the next big thing, and they managed to play coaching Russian Roulette with Wade Phillips and Andy Reid and watched Andy be the one who wet himself first. The Giants are who I thought they were, so that's nice at least. Honestly, the Eagles aren't far behind what I thought they were, so that's not too bad. Washington is even worse. The question comes down to this: do I think Dallas will choke now, or in the playoffs? Umm....


NEW PREDICTION: Dallas (11-5), Philadelphia (11-5), NY Giants (10-6), Washington (3-13)


NFC North:

Then: Chicago (13-3), Green Bay (11-5), Minnesota (9-7), Detroit (3-13)

Now: **sigh** Minnesota (7-1), Green Bay (4-4), The 2nd Greatest Franchise In NFL History Who Can't Seem To Have The Fortitutde To Fire The Entire Worthless Management Staff (4-5), Detroit (1-7)

Comments: The sports Gods hate me. I'll write an entire post about the stupid Bears sometime soon. Other than that, all that is relevant is to say that I underestimated how much having a competent QB would improve the Vikqueens.

NEW PREDICTION: Minnesota (12-4), Green Bay (8-8), Lovie's Catatonic Corpse (6-10), Detroit (3-13)


NFC South:

Then: New Orleans (11-5), Atlanta (10-6), Carolina (8-8), Tampa Bay (5-11)

Now: New Orleans (8-0), Atlanta (5-3), Carolina (3-5), Tampa Bay (1-7)

Comments: Boy, that looks pretty good, doesn't it? My logic seems to have been sound, and so there really isn't too much to say, except that the Saints look even better than I thought they would be. I had the Falcons missing the Wild Card back in early September back when I thought that the NFC North was going to give Brett Favre a fight; now that it's apparent nobody wants to get in the way of his comeback tour ... let's just say I have second thoughts.


NEW PREDICTION: New Orleans (14-2), Atlanta (10-6), Carolina (7-9), Tampa Bay (3-13)


NFC West:

Then: San Fransisco (9-7), Seattle (7-9), Arizona (7-9), St. Louis (5-11)

Now: Arizona (5-3), San Fransisco (4-5), Seattle (3-5), St. Louis (1-7)

Comments: The Cards have shown more resilience than I expected, but the division is just as boring as I envisioned. Congrats to Mike Singletary on the ugliest win I've ever heard of last night. That's all.


NEW PREDICTION: Arizona (9-7), San Fransisco (8-8), Seattle (7-9), St. Louis (2-14)


As for the playoffs, I had the following teams in at that time, in order from top seed to bottom seed:

AFC: New England, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Indianapolis, Baltimore and Houston.
NFC: Chicago, Philadelphia, New Orleans, San Francisco, Green Bay, New York

If I had to redo that now it would look like this:

AFC: Indianapolis, New England, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Cincinnati, Denver
NFC: New Orleans, Minnesota, Dallas, Arizona, Philadelphia, Atlanta

Rather than do match-ups, let's just say that I feel strongly that Indy would lose to New England, Pittsburgh for sure, San Diego probably, and Cincinnati possibly. They will most likely be the top seed, but I don't see it working out for them. I'm still saying the AFC champs will be the Pats, with the runner up being Pittsburgh. If it plays out with the seeds I've predicted here, the winner of the round two game with New England hosting Pittsburgh will be your AFC champion.

As for the NFC, it appears to go through a dome or a warm weather city. Talk about taking a step towards flag football. That said, it's got to be either New Orleans or Minnesota, and right now my pick would be New Orleans; barring an injury to Brees they seem to be unstoppable. So, at the midway point, my prediction would be:

NEW ENGLAND 38 - NEW ORLEANS 35

The exciting thing? We get to see Pats-Colts this weekend (I'll take the Pats +3), and the Pats-Saints in a few weeks. Even with the Bears failing to show up this year, it's still got potential to be a great NFL season.

Monday, September 14, 2009

NFL - Opening Weekend Quick Hits

Boy it didn't take long to make my Super Bowl prediction look highly unlikely did it? ...

- With today's news that MLB Brian Urlacher will miss the rest of the season after dislocating his wrist, as well as with the other injuries suffered by our defense (most notably Pisa Tinoisamoa), it's hard to see things ending nearly as well as they could have this year. The team was up to all of the typical Lovie brain farts: faking a punt on 4th and 11 deep in their own territory (which, all things considered, might be the defining dumb moment of Lovie's tenure), calling for a screen pass inside the ten yard line, challenging your own stupid call on the fake punt (which wasted another time out)... the list goes on and on.

The single most infuriating thing about the game was watching Lovie once again sit there like Forrest Gump, seemingly not even caring that his season was going up in flames all around him. He stood there, watching Culter pretend to be Rex Grossman, watching his receivers not finish running their routes, watching his long snapper call for a fake punt audible ... he stood there and didn't even move. I don't need him to throw a chair onto the field or choke a player. I understand that the new thing for coaches to do is just observe. But even Phil Jackson, the Zen Master, would have been yelling and tearing his team a new one.

Someone has to hold people accountable. Someone needs to tell Jay Cutler "listen son, you're my quarterback, but you've got to stop forcing those throws." Someone needed to tell Desmond Clark "if you stop mid-route again you're done for the day." Someone needed to tell Greg Olsen "stop being scared of being hit and catch the ball." The only person who looked upset yesterday was Virginia McCaskey, and she's gotta be in her 80s. An even halfway decent coach would have done something, but not Lovie. He stood there, like a bump on a log, and watched an extremely important game go up in flames.

- To be clear, no the season is not over. It never is after one game. But the injuries to the defense are going to make it tough for us to get the job done. Lovie and Ron Turner seem to be in love with the idea of tossing the ball down the field, which is not good news for the defense either. Our front four did a great job of getting pressure on Aaron Rodgers, but our secondary looked like toast. Now we have to go without the one person who makes all the defensive calls. The other one, Mike Brown, is no longer there, so Urlacher was it.

Furthermore, with the love for passing down field we are on the verge of forgetting the running game. I've seen this before, back when Rex Grossman was the new hit in Chicago, and we just started airing it out left and right. It lost us a Super Bowl.

- In the other games, the Colts struggled to beat a bad Jacksonville team, which didn't surprise me too much. The Bengals and the Broncos both looked awful on offense, another non-surprise. In both of these instances the common logic prevailed. Indianapolis is going to struggle because they don't have a second wide receiver to complement Reggie Wayne. Anthony Gonzalez is out two to six weeks now, but he lost Peyton's all important "trust" this preseason by dropping too many balls. The Indy defense looked good, but you have to remember that they were going against two rookie tackles making their first starts. Against any team with a pulse Indy would have lost yesterday, but that is the difference between the good teams and the bad: the good teams find a way to win.

In Cincinnati, however, we were seeing two very bad teams go against one another. Kyle Orton looked every bit as weak armed as I remembered him being, and Carson Palmer looked washed up on the other sideline. That this game would end on such a fluke play (click here if you didn't see it) was pretty fitting. Let's just say that I'm fairly confident both of these teams will be closer to ten losses than ten wins.

- San Francisco began its march to the NFC west crown by defeating last year's NFC champs, and doing so in the ugly manner you would expect from a Mike Singletary team. I loved this hire for San Francisco; you go from a number of coaches who just couldn't connect with the players to one who was one of the best ever, and who's intensity can never be questioned. Singletary will get a ton out of this team even though there isn't a whole lot of talent there. It's amazing what a good coach can do.

- From Arizona's perspective, however, the Super Bowl curse is already showing its effects. Warner looked a bit slower than last year, the ground game still struggled, and they just couldn't come up with the big plays they did last year. Let's not forget that Arizona was only 9-7 last year (the same record the Bears had), and just happened to play in a weak division, then get hot at the right time. Arizona also will be closer to ten losses than to ten wins this year.

- It's far too early to revise my predictions; I'd like to wait until at least the quarter mark, if not mid season to do that. But let's just say that I'll be hoping that New England blows the Bills out tonight. It'd be nice to have one pick look even remotely possible after week one.

Sunday, September 13, 2009

The Greatest There Ever Was

This weekend, ever so quietly, the G.O.A.T. made his final journey into basketball immortality. How strange is it, after all these years, that the final step of Michael Jordan's illustrious basketball career would be so soundly overshadowed by the start of the NFL season? A man who, for the better part of a decade starting in the late 1980s, dominated the sports world as completely and thoroughly as anyone ever has, and he was overshadowed by the start of a different league's season.

I think that the way MJ's HOF induction was covered tells us a number of things. The first thing is that many people still are unsure how to come to grips with Jordan. His name is far more famous than any other name in this world. But at this point he has become a bit of an enigma to the masses. He had the greatest stretch of any professional athlete, regardless of sport, and that time included a retirement (1988-1998). He dominated an entire era both on the individual level, as well as the team level; six NBA championships, five MVP awards, countless scoring titles, All-NBA defensive team honors as well as Defensive Player of the Year awards ... you name it, Jordan did it.

But the same things that made fans love (or hate) Jordan during his prime are the very things that leave so many wondering what to make of him now. His competitive drive, so legendary, was what drove him to levels no other man had achieved. But that same drive is now what leads to articles like this being written about how much of a bitter man he has become. Or books, like Michael Leahy's brilliant account of MJ's time with the Washington Wizards, to be written. Look, I'm a huge Michael Jordan fan, but I'm also a realist. The very things that made my childhood idol such a success are the very things that drive people away from him. I'm not the least bit surprised that he spent a portion of his acceptance speech taking shots at his High School coach (who cut him from the varsity team), or Isiah Thomas, or Jerry Krause. It was, no matter how little you might want to admit it, those people who drove Michael to the heights he reached. They all, in their own way, belittled the man who would become the greatest ever. But much as Michael used them to drive himself to higher levels, he now needs them to confirm to himself that he was worthwhile.

Being the king of the world may be lonely, but having once been the king, and now just being able to look back on it wistfully must be much worse. Michael Jordan used his demons and his competitive drive to push himself to the top. Those same aspects of him now leave him unable to come to grips with his own humanity. We often idolize people, ignoring their flaws, but when we start to embrace them, flaws and all, there can be important lessons to be learned. With Michael the lesson is obvious: always be aware of your own mortality, and know that everything has to end.

Friday, September 11, 2009

Time Will Pass So Quickly

Just sitting here, writing this post, thinking about these things ... just doing this brings goosebumps up and down my arms. I can't really put a finger on it, but I can FEEL emotion welling up inside of me. So many things are rushing through my mind, and it is hard for me to really know where to begin with this story. And so, I suppose, I'll start with the title and move forward from there.

On February 28, 1999 my Grandfather passed away. I was in Jr. High School at the time, and he and I were rather close. It hurt quite a bit, but the timing was as right, as the timing of those things can be. His passing gave me an impromptu jolt forward, from childhood to a bit of adulthood, and it framed quite a bit of my thinking through the next few years. Since the day of his funeral I have carried the same card in my wallet. It's from his funeral, and has a poem on it, as things of that nature often do. A portion of the poem which I often have focused in on read "Time will pass so quickly, but time will heal the wounds." Throughout many tough times in my life I have meditated on these words as hope for the future and moving forward.

If my Grandfather's death was impact moment number one in my childhood, the first moment which violently moved me towards adulthood, then the second moment occurred September 11, 2001. Sitting in a class room in my High School, taking a standardized test, we had no idea what had just befallen our country. If this were to happen even today I have no doubt that someone in that class would have received a text message, or a facebook update, or a twitter about the goings on. Even in the classroom. But in 2001 I didn't even have a cell phone yet, and those who did were not yet brazen enough to carry them into a class, at least not on.

So we sat, totally unaware of the world shifting under our feet, for a few hours while we took tests that we had to take to be able to graduate. The last moments, as it would be, of our childhood were slipping away, and we had no idea. The world was changing, and the paradigm that had worked since the fall of the USSR, the same basic idea that had encompassed our world view for all of our lives, was almost instantly gone. When Mr. Cook walked into the room with a such a serious look on his face I knew something was up. He told us that we would remember sitting in that class, that day, the same way our parents remembered where they were when JFK was killed, and our Grandparents when Pearl Harbor was bombed. The weight started to pound down on me, but in a calm, strong, articulate manner he managed to convey what had happened. And I jumped forward yet again.

Perhaps it was preordained from birth that I would get into politics, but I have a sneaking suspicion that 9/11 cemented my direction. I finished my remaining years of High School continuing to distance myself from much of what I had held dear, and moving out towards ... something. I wasn't sure then, and I would be lying if I told you that I was any more sure right now. I got involved with Student Government, and we pushed through a number of goals that others had tried and failed to achieve. I was Senior Class President, but by the time I graduated I had burned most of the bridges I had with my various social groups. I moved towards Indiana University with a sense of cautious optimism.

I settled on Political Science as my major while sitting with my roommate to be in a room without air conditioning in Bloomington, in mid-July. It was hot, I was wearing hair down to my shoulders, and had not shaved in about two months. It was my first time to Bloomington in nearly a decade (I never visited, just applied, was accepted, and accepted their acceptance). And I was reading through all the various majors which were offered, and trying to settle on something to tell my "advisor" in the morning. A big state school, particularly a Liberal-Arts one such as IU, gives you every option under the sun. I settled on Political Science for the outward reason that I had always loved History, and wanted something I'd love, yet I also wanted something that would challenge me to grow. And so the die was cast: I would study Political Science.

I suspect that inwardly I was still feeling the aftershocks of 9/11. I had no idea what focus I would have within the department, and I actually had no idea what the department could offer. I signed up for one Political Science class (Intro to US Politics), which I figured would be nice and easy since I had taken AP Government in High School. I wasn't genuinely moved within my major until, on a whim, I signed up for Y109 my second semester. Introduction to International Relations was the name of the class. A portion of my third jump forward was about to occur, although I had no way of knowing at the time.

You see, my freshman year in High School I saw George W. Bush take office by beating Al Gore. I still, to this day, will be honest and tell you I would have voted for Bush whole heartedly if given the chance. My freshman year at IU I again saw Bush win office, this time by beating Kerry. I was voting now, for the first time, and I was genuinely conflicted by my choice. On the one had you had Bush, who was the devil I knew, and who, to that point, had one big strike against him in my book: he had totally, systematically mismanaged the occupation of Iraq. My initial support for the War in Iraq is a story for another day; still, by 2004 I knew that it wasn't going well, and I had determined that Bush was, above all else, not a great Commander in Chief of the US Armed Forces. On the other hand you had John F. Kerry, who was nothing if not a worthless joke of candidate. I couldn't envision Kerry as President. I weighed the devil I knew against the devil I didn't, was convinced that in Indiana it wouldn't matter anyway ... and swung with Kerry as a "protest vote."

To be honest, even with everything that befell the Bush Administration since that point I STILL feel dirty about having voted for Kerry. I don't think I'll ever feel comfortable with that vote. But 9/11 had changed me so much in such a small period of time: I began to delve in to international relations, and I focused on the Middle East. First with Kuwait, and a study of a "close" American ally in the Middle East. Then, after being given a research internship, with the Middle East Northern Tier. Again, the following year, with the Persian Gulf region. And, finally, culminating with a study of diplomacy in the nuclear age, and an Honors Thesis on the Iranian nuclear issue.

My time at IU was quickly shaped by 9/11, even if I didn't realize it at the time. Political Science wasn't even a fleeting thought in my mind on that day, yet by the time that six years had passed I had become knowledgeable on the Middle East, international relations, diplomacy, and nuclear weapons. The world changed that day, and I changed that day, and those changes really do closely parallel one another. There are other things that played integral roles on how I ended up here too, most significantly the reality that Hurricane Katrina brought every American about how unprepared we were to deal with our own problems even as we tried to fix the world's. But, sitting here today, I can honestly say that there are at least dozens of other things I may have ended up doing had those planes not hit the towers, or the Pentagon, or the field in Pennsylvania. It is mind blowing that I can sit here and say that eight years have passed. EIGHT YEARS! On the one hand, it still feels like yesterday to be honest. But, quite on the other, it seems like an eternity has passed. It seems like ancient history, or at least history of the World War II variety where we are still seeing the outcomes but the impact itself seems so long ago.

And now I work with kids, in residential placement, trying to make the world a better place quite literally one life at a time. And, again, I wonder how I got here. This certainly isn't where I thought I would be if you had asked me three years ago. I still can't believe I've been out of school for over a year. On some levels I feel like a failure because I'm not doing what I was "supposed" to do, but on other levels I feel like a success exactly because of that reason. Is grad school a real option for me? I know some people who were born and bred for it. I worked with them at school; hell, I LIVED with them at school. I don't talk to any of them anymore, for a variety of reasons, but I know that I'm not built like them. One thing that I have learned about myself is that no matter how academic I make it, no matter how intellectual I try to keep things, I still feel them too much to truly keep it separate. I work with these kids because this is tangible, and I can see my successes and my failures up close and personal. I'm not sure that I could ever see the results like that in the academic or government settings, and for that reason, perhaps above all others, I can honestly say I'm not sure where I'm going. But today, at least, I know where I've been, and where it has taken me.

I'm still not sure what to make of the world we've been left with following 9/11. Sometimes I feel like Frodo does in The Lord of the Rings: "I wish the ring had never come to me. I wish none of this had happened." I think we all feel that way from time to time in life, when we get down, when bad things befall us. It is not Frodo's quote we need to remember, however, but instead Gandalf's response: "So do all who live to see such times, but that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us." Time has passed so quickly, but I can say that, even if time has not quite healed the many wounds that life has left with me, I have also lived a lifetime in the past eight years. Only time will tell what the next eight may bring.

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

While We Were Sleeping

The debate here in the US has been focused on health care. Health care this, health care that. Is Obama a socialist? He was during the election at least, but now he's also a fascist? Not only is the anti-Obama movement in this country angry, but now it's also totally nonsensical. Congress goes on its Summer break, and at town hall after town hall people are going crazy over the proposed legislation.

Thankfully I'm not here to write about health care. Honestly, who cares? The system is broken; the proposed changes would leave the system still broken. The reality is that many of the people who are so vibrantly opposed to the legislation are opposed just because they oppose change. The conservative movement in this country has totally ceased to have any original ideas, and instead they just oppose change in any form.

Outside of the US the world has continued to turn, and in Iran things continue to happen. Now months since the Iranian Presidential election the ramifications of that fixed process continue to play out. Today the New York Times reports that the offices of the leading Iranian opposition members were raided. In the minds of nearly all Americans, I would suppose, the Iranian election has played itself out already. To believe that, however, would be to not fully appreciate the depth of what is going on in and around Tehran.

Former President Katahmi is still calling for the opposition movement to rise up and not stand for the fixed results. He is calling the movements and actions of the current government "totalitarian" and "fascist." Katahmi is the most prominent and vocal member of the opposition, and his speaking out continues a pattern of prominent members of the Iranian political elite challenging the authority of the Supreme Leader. All this while the IAEA admits that its talks with Iran are at a stalemate, and while Ahmadinejad is again saying he is "open" to the idea of negotiating with the UNSC 5 plus Germany.

In a way it is very American for us to be so focused on something that is highly unlikely to happen (significant health care reform) while ignoring something that is far more likely to have a direct impact on our nation's foreign policy and national security (the power struggle going on in Iran). We have always been a nation with deep isolationist roots, a truly reluctant super power when considered from the ground (everyday citizens) up. It is only natural, therefore, that many Americans, if not most, would focus on battling for or against change in the form of health care legislation while choosing to ignore the boiling volcano in the Middle East. But health care reform, not matter how drastic, doesn't have the potential to lead us into a deadly conflict. The Iranian political system does, and that is why it bears watching.

Wednesday, September 2, 2009

The Links

I've been meaning to write about these various issues. But, as is often the case, life gets in the way. So I'll do the next best thing here: pass the articles on to you directly! Lots of politics here, with a little MLB on the side:

- This article takes a good look at Ted Kennedy's legislative career, and the things he left unfinished.

- The New York Times presents a view here on how climate change will become (if it hasn't already) integral to our national security.

- Politico here presents an article on the Democrats worries over Obama's war strategies.

- SI.com gives us an article on the struggles which small market teams are experiencing now with the economy down.

- And, finally, this article from awhile ago explores McCain's rational for opposing the nomination of Sotomayor.

A Dave Matthews Band Breakdown

So I'm going to see Dave Matthews Band a third time this year. The first two, which I wrote about on here, were a Friday/Saturday pair of shows in Noblesville, IN. On September 26th a little more than a half dozen of us will make the trek to Chicago and the Tinley Park Amphitheater to see him again. Tinley Park is the site where I first saw DMB three years ago. Since then my travels have brought me to him four times at Noblesville, and once in Bloomington, where he played with Tim Reynolds.

Going to Tinley with me will be a group of the usual suspects, but it will also be my brother's first Dave show. In honor of that, and in honor of my third time this season, I present my list of the ten best DMB songs. When going over the one hundred plus songs that make up the Dave Matthews Band catalogue I settled on the following rules:

- No songs off of any solo album could qualify. In practical terms that means that Some Devil, Dave's solo album, could not be considered.
- No covers could be on the list. This means that DMB's cover of All Along the Watchtower, which is one of my favorite songs, does not qualify.
- A song should be good on the studio album release, but should be equally good, if not better, live. This rule is important because DMB has been and always will be a band that is in its essence live. Really, you can't pass judgement on them until you've seen them live.

So, without further delay, here are my top ten favorite songs by Dave Matthews Band:


10. Why I Am / Funny The Way It Is

A tie? Yes, a tie. It's lame to have a top ten list that consists of eleven songs, but I haven't had enough time with either of these songs to determine which is actually better. They are both off of the new release, Big Whiskey and the GrooGrux King (buy it now!), and they are both spectacular in their own ways. "Why I Am" is an upbeat song with powerful drive, an open celebration of late DMB saxophonist LeRoy Moore's life. "Funny" is the rare DMB single that shines through. Tim Reynolds guitar solo is wonderful, the song has a powerful meaning, and all around it delivers the goods. As a tie breaker I considered both of these songs live, and the crowd was at 100% intensity for both. So, yes, a tie. I guess it's a top eleven list after all.

9. Dreaming Tree

This song, off of DMB's third studio release Before These Crowded Streets, is hauntingly beautiful and equally powerful. The soft music drives through the song, giving a soft number an incredible intensity. The lyrics are moving and insightful: "standing here the old man said to me 'long before these crowded streets, here stood my dreaming tree.' Below it he would sit for hours at a time; now progress takes away what forever took to find." When I saw Dave and Tim live at Assembly Hall for the Obama benefit they played this, and it blew me away. They rarely play this song live, but seeing Dave and Tim do it, seeing the crowd's reaction when they realized what the song was ... it was enough to secure that this song is something special.

8. Rhyme and Reason

Off of DMB's first studio release, Under The Table and Dreaming, this song is one I have not seen live yet, but you can bet I'm looking forward to hearing it. Watching it live on The Central Park Concert DVD gives you an idea of the power behind this song. This clip, from a concert 9/11/99, is a good example of this. I love the way this song starts off slow, then builds into an explosion, then slowly fades away.


7. Tripping Billies

This song was the first that Boyd Tinsley was brought in to play violin for, and the rest, as they say, was history. Released on Two Things, and then again with the second studio release Crash, "Billies" is a long time DMB staple which is very popular live for a good number of reasons. First, the song is just plain fun, and has great energy to dance to, sing to, and enjoy the moment with your friends. Second, Boyd just kills on the violin solos on this one. The song is great on the album, but this is a great example of a song that gets taken to a whole different level when seen live.

6. Two Step

This was the final encore of the final night this year, and it made up for a concert that had been a bit of a let down to that point (although, upon further review of the set list, it was only a let down because the night before had been so mind-numbingly awesome). Another song off of Crash, this song is another that starts slowly, builds intensity, and then just explodes. With "Two Step," however, it is the brass line that just kills. That's the thing about DMB: every time you think one part of the band outshines another a song will come along to change your perception. This song has always been one of my favorites off of the albums, but live it is other-worldly. An easy inclusion on to this list. (If you want to see what I'm talking about check out this clip from the show I was at this year.)

5. Ants Marching

Off of Under The Table, this song was a single when it came out, but had been played by the band for some time before the actual studio release (much like "Billies"). Ants is a staple of a live show with DMB; they may not always play it, but when they do you know that they feel the crowd is totally with them. I saw it as the final number before the encore at Tinley Park during that first show, and it was amazing. The violin solo here is perhaps my favorite Boyd solo, and the drums just drive throughout (although, with Carter, that is almost always the case). Seeing this song live is quite the experience, and it is also an amazing studio song. In the world of DMB that's the rare double feature.

4. # 41

Sometimes you don't name the songs, you just label them by the order you wrote them in. "41" is an amazing song off of Crash that often gets fifteen to twenty minutes of the band just jamming with each other live. It has some great lyrics, but the real treat is just listening to the band play as one for what seems like a pristine eternity after the lyrics have finished.


3. Satellite

If there was a song that made me fall in love with DMB this song would be it. I remember when this song was a radio single; it alone led me to purchase the album it was off of (Under The Table again), and so it alone led me to become the fan I have become. The soft guitar intro just floats, and the song follows through with a beautiful melody. I have seen this song live a number of times, including Tinley Park, twice at Verizon and with Dave and Tim at Assembly, but it never gets old. It is always, hands down, a treat to see and hear.

2. Alligator Pie

A disclaimer in the interest of full disclosure: I spent the better part of my college years at IU working in Hurricane Katrina relief. This song is about New Orleans following Katrina. On that level it is quite the emotional song for me. But beyond that, this song showcases every aspect that makes this band an all-time great. The drums drive throughout, the guitar is amazing, Boyd nails the violin, and Stefan rocks the bass ... just an all time effort. Check it out here live at the Beacon theater; Dave explains a bit about the song. I saw this song both nights this year, and the crowd was totally into it. This song is, perhaps, the best song they've written in a years. With my emotional attachment to it there is only one song that could top it...

1. Bartender

When I was a Junior or Senior in High School (can't really remember which) I was attending Youth Group one night, and our Pastor announced we would be taking communion. After he blessed the bread and juice (we are Methodist after all) a song began to play through the sound system. This wasn't out of the ordinary, but the song itself was something inspired. As big of a DMB fan as I am I had no idea the song was by them until I heard Dave's voice. And so, the first time I ever heard the song Bartender I took communion to it.

Bartender is much more than a song to me. It is my inspiration through the perils I face. It is my comfort during times of great trials. Seeing it live is always like a religious experience. No song can give me goosebumps the instant that the opening brass kicks in. I saw it live at Tinley Park that first year, and at once knew that the show would be a success no matter what happened. I saw it again at Noblesville two years ago, and felt the weight of the world lift off my shoulders. Dave and Tim played it in Assembly Hall as my time at IU wrapped up, and it seemed right. They opened with it the first night at Noblesville this year, and at that moment we all knew it was going to be a night that would never, ever, ever be topped. Bartender is not just my favorite song by Dave Matthews Band (by the way, it's off of Busted Stuff). Bartender is my favorite song of all time, period. When the time comes, and the good Lord lifts me up and takes me far from here, this is the song I want played at my funeral. Oh, if I go before I'm old...