The Super Bowl

Last week I went to great lengths to get all of my anti-Colts feelings out, on paper, and out of the way. This week I have a story to tell you, then a few thoughts on the game, and a pick to make. First, with the story.

THE STORY

I was born in April of 1986; roughly two a half months prior to my birth the Chicago Bears claimed their first Super Bowl title, their ninth NFL championship in all. That Bears team is, by many measures, the greatest team to ever take the field in the NFL. When one considers their opponent winning percentage (.505) stands in stark contrast to that of the undefeated 1972 Miami Dolphins team, whose opponent winning percentage (.357) is the second easiest all time to the 1970 Baltimore Colts (.352). That Bears team featured a fierce defense with a more than competent offense. They sacked the opposing QB 80 times (!) and had 36 interceptions; they held the opposing QB to an average rating of 47.9 and allowed a meager 82 yards per game on the ground, while allowing less than 200 yards of total offense a game. No defense has ever been close to that dominate, and that total dominance is best illustrated by the total scores of their three playoff games: Bears 91 - the Rams, Giants and Patriots 10. Nobody even scored on them in the NFC playoffs.

That Bears team was unlike anything we have ever seen, and, if the past few years are any indicator, they are unlike anything we will ever see again. In the past five years the NFL has decided to change the rules so that defenses cannot stop the offense, particularly the opposing passing games. Defensive holding, an increase in the frequency in pass interference calls, and making it so the quarterback is practically wearing a red practice "don't hit me" jersey ... well, these changes have made it so that it is impossible to play defense in the NFL anymore. A good indicator of this is the number of players who make it to the 4,000 passing yard mark each year. In the past only the best arms were able to make it there, and generally only then if they were playing in an offense conducive to lots of passing.

In 2009 a record TEN QUARTERBACKS threw for at least 4,000 yards. The previous record years, seven in 2007 and six in 2008, were the two previous years. The next highest totals came in a three way tie at five 4,000 yard passes. Those years were 1999, 2004 and 2006. In other words, four of the six years with the most 4,000 yard passers have taken place AFTER Colts President Bill Polian complained to the NFL that it wasn't fair the 2003 and 2004 Patriots were beating his team. No, seriously, this happened. Scroll about half way down this article if you need a refresher course. Even in the increasingly pass-happy decade of the 1990s there were only 22 QBs total to reach 4,000 in a single season. Now we've had twenty three players do that in the last three years alone!

So ... if you can't bump and run the wide receiver without fearing a flag ... and you can't play tight defense down-field without fearing a flag ... and if you can't even touch the QB without getting a flag ... how can you play defense? On a recent podcast Bill Simmons stated that he didn't think that even the awesome Patriots of 2003 and 2004 could have hung with the Colts because they wouldn't have been allowed to play defense. I would go a step further: the 1985 Bears, the greatest team ever, wouldn't even be able to be in Super Bowl contention if they were to play in today's environment. They would simply be unable to hang with a team like the Colts, not because the Colts are better (they're not), but because the rules are so far in favor of offense that you now need to be able to score 35 points on any given Sunday in order to have a chance to win. That Bears team was built on controlling the ball, time of possession, and beating the crap out of the other team. That is the formula that won football games for nearly a century, and five years ago the NFL changed it.

That said, this Super Bowl matchup has to be one that gets you excited if you are even a casual sports fan. Would Manning v Favre have been a little better? Probably ... but I'm happy I don't have to pick between two of my least favorite teams to find one to root for (for the record, I would have been in ViQueens purple if this apocalyptic event had occurred, much as I was pulling for the Red Sox over the Cards in 2004 and the Astros over those South Side fairies in 2005. I am nothing if not logical, and I've had plenty of practice of late in picking the lesser of two evils.) In this game we have two teams, both with totally self-contained story lines that make them fascinating. Take the New Orleans Saints:

• A team which hails from a city which was torn apart by the worst natural disaster in modern times to befall this country
• A team which has a coach (Sean Payton) who was passed up by Green Bay, and a QB (Drew Brees) who was let go by San Diego in favor of Phillip Rivers, and was then given the ultimate kick in the crotch as the Miami Dolphins said "no thanks, we'd rather have us some Daunte Culpepper with a side of torn ACL." Two spurned people, uniting together, then seeing the city they united in be torn apart.
  
• A team which drafted Reggie Bush, then has barely had to use him to get to where they are today. If you don't think Bush is a huge potential x-factor in this game you are probably forgetting that the man knows how to win on the big stage. (All Notre Dame fans are silently nodding right now, and will soon go into the fetal position as they secretly think about how much different Charlie's time in South Bend might have been if only Reggie wasn't so darn strong pushing in Matty Leinart)
• A team that nearly moved to San Antonio ... then was resurrected to become the heart and soul of a city in desperate need of something other than a mutual hatred of FEMA to rally to.

I've been to the Coast, and I wore the hell out of my Saints hat. I purchased the hat when the Saints hired Ditka, and I wore it almost every day on the coast. There was never a day where someone didn't come up to me and say something about the Saints. That team came behind the community in a way we rarely see pro athletes do, and that entire region is one, united behind this team. I wouldn't be surprised if Miami is overrun by Saints fans because, lets face it, Colts fans suck and don't travel well ... and the Saints fans want it, hell they need it much more than Colts fans can understand.

On the other hand, you have the Indianapolis Colts:

• A team looking to win a Super Bowl for the second time in four years.
• A team with a QB looking to surge into the debate of G.O.A.T. (greatest of all time)
• A team with an offense that has taken full advantage of all the rules their team president worked so hard to get into place (did I mention he sits as a very respected member of the frickin' NFL competition committee?)
• A team that knows this feeling before, won't be nervous, and won't feel they are out of this game no matter how the first three quarters go

Two teams, two very different engines driving their Super Bowl hopes. The Saints and the city they helped to save. The Colts, and one man's drive to be the G.O.A.T.

THE BREAKDOWN

So how can we tell who is going to win this game? There are a few areas to look at, starting with team statistics:

• In total offense the Saints were number one in the NFL with 6,461 yards, while the Colts were 9th with 5,809 yards. That broke down to a difference of 40.7 yards per game between these teams in total offense.
• Within the subject of offense the Colts were second in the NFL in passing offense, gaining 282.2 yards per game through the air, while the Saints were fourth at 272.2. Both of these teams are efficient through the air.
• While, on the ground, the Colts were dead last (80.9 rushing yards per game) and the Saints were sixth at 131.6. The difference is very telling, and what it tells me is that the Saints like to run, and believe they can run. The Colts, on the other hand, don't feel they can run, but don't believe they need to.
  
• Finally, in the ultimate measure of an offense's effectiveness, the Saints were the NFL's most potent offense, averaging 31.9 points per game (and, it should be noted, they have scored 30+ points in each of their first two playoff games). The Colts, while still very effective, were only seventh at 26 points per game. Interestingly enough, the line in this game moved to Colts (-5.5) ... which is the same as the differential in points per game, only inverted to favor the Colts. Hmm...
• On to the defense, the Colts were middle of the pack, 18th in the NFL, allowing 339.2 yards per game, while the Saints were 25th allowing 357.8 yards per game. Less than 20 yards a game difference, and both teams were in the bottom half of the league, indicating even more so that A) the nature of the game has changed drastically since 1985, and B) that this looks, on paper, to be one heck of a high scoring game.
• In the specific area of passing defense the Colts were actually pretty decent, in the top half of the NFL at 212.7 yards per game, good for 14th in the league. The Saints, on the other hand, were 26th in the league allowing 235.6 yards per game through the air. Although, as a budding Saints apologist I feel the need to remind you that they were missing their number one corner back for half the season.
  
• Running defenses flip the scale a little bit: New Orleans was 21st, allowing 122.2 yards per game on the ground to the Colts 126.5, good for 24th in the league. George Halas is now rolling over in his grave at the thought of two defenses with core numbers this bad playing for the Super Bowl...
• When you put it all together and look at the number of points per game allowed by each of these porous defenses you get the following: New Orleans 20th allowing 21.3 points per game, while the Colts were a stunning 8th allowing only 19.2 points per game. Despite allowing a ton of yards the Colts managed to do a bit of the following:
• The Colts managed to finish with 34 sacks while allowing a league low 13 (!!!!) sacks. Think about that for a minute ... Manning was sacked only 13 times the whole season. Wow. By comparison, New Orleans had 35 sacks while Brees was sacked a reasonable 20 times. And Aaron Rodgers, in other news, is still not buying his offensive line any end of year presents; he was sacked 51 times.
  
• Finally, in terms of turnover differential, the Saints were +11 (having turned the ball over 28 times and forced 39 turnovers), while the Colts were +2 (having turned the ball over 24 times and forced 26 turnovers). In short, if the Saints can replicate this aspect of their regular season they have a very good chance of winning the game.

Adding this all up we see that both passing offenses are potent, the Saints run the ball much better than Indy, and that Indy's defense is slightly better than the Saints, although New Orleans was much better in turnover differential. Now, on to another area where we should be able to get a bit of information: common opponents.

1. New England - (Colts 35 - Patriots 34; Saints 38 - Patriots 17)

In this common matchup the Colts were banged up, but the Saints were more banged up, missing both starting corner backs. The Patriots featured the most potent offense either of these teams has faced before Sunday, and the Saints just rolled along, while the Colts faced the toughest test they have had to date. Let's just put this one in the "Pro Saints" category and move on.

2. Buffalo - (Colts 7 - Bills 30; Saints 27 - Bills 7)

Just to remind the Colts that they lost two games on purpose this year, this being one of them. Even if you win it all Colts fans, it could have been a perfect season. Now you'll never know. In other news, the Bills were the number two passing defense in the league this year, to the Jets, and while they shut down Brees generally (only 172 yards) the Saints were able to run (126 rushing yards from Pierre Thomas, 222 total rushing yards at 5.8 yards per carry). That fact bodes well for the Saints chances in this game as well: they can win without Brees doing the bulk of the damage, and they can run the ball and control time of possession. Two things you have always had to do if you were going to beat Senior Manning.

3. Miami - (Colts 27 - Dolphins 23; Saints 46 - Dolphins 34)

Miami played tough against both teams, but the overwhelming thing to take away from this common opponent is that both of these teams have the ability to win games they probably shouldn't. Two close, come from behind wins here.

4. New York Jets - (Colts 15 - Jets 29; Saints 24 - Jets 10)

I guess Colts fans can say that they beat the Jets when it counted ... but the Saints looked better here. And the Colts threw a game. Since when was that legal? Isn't Shoeless Joe Jackson banned from baseball forever (even through death) because of this very issue?

5. St. Louis - (Colts 42 - Rams 6; Saints 28 - Rams 23)

The Colts cream a bad team ... the Saints just survive...

Out of all of this the most pertinent game remains the New England game for each. The Colts barely survived, and probably wouldn't have if Belicheck hadn't lost his mind. The Saints absolutely destroyed New England.

THE PICK

So what does all this mean? My Grandfather would probably like to say that all of this means that I need a life. I think that it means one thing: the Saints are going to win the Super Bowl. The reasons are clear: they can run the ball and the Colts can't. They can't stop anyone on defense, but the Colts can't stop the run. They are capable of winning at least two different ways (running the ball or passing it in a shoot out) while the Colts only have one way (drop back and pray). Both teams are good about keeping their respective QB upright, and the Colts are especially hurt here with Dwight Freeney trying to play with torn ankle tendons. The Saints take care of the football and force the other team into mistakes. Hell, there is a former Indiana Hoosier STARTING FOR THE SAINTS (God bless you Tracy Porter). How can you top that.

Wait a minute...

...

I feel like I'm forgetting something ...

...

...

... maybe something I actually managed to write two weeks ago? ...

... ("So ... what does that all mean? It clearly means we are headed to a New Orleans v New York Super Bowl. And, despite the fact that I really tried hard to be unbiased in my analysis, I think it also must mean that I ... undervalued Peyton Manning.")

... Did you catch that? ...

...

... ("So ... what does that all mean? It clearly means we are headed to a New Orleans v New York Super Bowl. And, despite the fact that I really tried hard to be unbiased in my analysis, I think it also must mean that I ... undervalued Peyton Manning.") ...

... what?

... ("I ... UNDERVALUED PEYTON MANNING.")

All things equal, you bet the Saints in this game. They have karma on their side. They have the numbers on their side. They've got a rabid fan base on their side. But they don't have Peyton f'in Manning on their side. I really can't stand the man; to say that I hate him may actually not be an understatement. But, much like Wes Mantooth's feelings towards Ron Burgundy ... I may hate him, but I respect him. And I've seen this same old song before:

A talented player comes up, racks up individual accolades, is berated as a poor teammate, and is reminded that he can't win the big game. But that player eventually breaks through, and then, every once in awhile, that talented player becomes something else. He becomes transcendent, and then all bets are off.

I hope Peyton Manning's teammates drop a few balls, he yells at them like always, and they start to fall apart just like the good old days. I hope that the Saints come into the Super Bowl not just happy to be there like the Bears in 2007, but driven to prove everyone who is picking the Colts wrong. I hope that Brees connects deep to Devery Henderson. I hope Pierre Thomas runs through the porous Colts defense. I hope Manning connects with Saints in big moments, rather than Colts. I hope Jim Caldwell blinks at least once as Sean Payton raises the Super Bowl trophy and the entire Gulf Coast celebrates. I hope...

But I think that Peyton Manning is about to become transcendent. It's funny, but in a way Bernard Pollard is the most important person in the world when it comes to the debate of NFL QB G.O.A.T. Had he not submarined Brady's knee, and subsequently the Patriots season and the second half of Brady's career, this is likely not where we'd be. Nor would we be here had David Tyree not found a way to hold on to the last catch of his NFL career, moments after the Patriots let Eli go for fear of a roughing the passer penalty (see, those rules suck). But here we are, and when Manning wins on Sunday there will soon be only two: Montana and Manning.

For years I had felt we would get an heir to Montana's throne, but I always figured it would be the golden boy, Brady, he of 3 Super Bowl rings. After Sunday we'll know if that history will be changing. I suspect that it will.

SUPER BOWL PICK: COLTS 37 - Saints 28

The Championships: Do I Know Anything?

Last weekend I spent the better part of an hour, during the Colts - Ravens game, explaining why the Jets were such a bad matchup for the Chargers. I broke them down by each area, and illustrated why the Chargers would be lucky to survive. And yet I picked San Diego to win.

Why, you might ask, would I do such a thing when I knew how bad of a matchup this was? Furthermore, what caused me to pick the Chargers to win by TWO TOUCHDOWNS when I knew all this? The answer, as always, is that I wanted to believe San Diego would win, and win convincingly. I wanted them to win because I needed them to win. They presented the toughest opponent for the hated Colts to play. They represented my best chance to win my fantasy football league, as I have (had) Phillip Rivers and Vincent Jackson on my team. Somewhere inside of me I needed San Diego to survive, so I picked them to survive by two touchdowns. Then I watched as New York did exactly what I said they would do: dismantle the Chargers, hang in there, and beat them.

And so, for this week, I have decided that the only thing to do is to push onward with my picks. I'm 2-6 this year. A losing playoffs is ensured at this point. But I still have my pride. This weekend we get one game we wanted (New Orleans hosting Minnesota) and one game we didn't (the underdog Jets heading into Indianapolis). The lines in Las Vegas indicate that the Jets are dogs by right around eight points, while the Vikings are dogs by around four and a half points. The New York - Indy line doesn't surprise me much, but I am surprised that New Orleans is favored by that much. Did nobody pay attention to what Minnesota did to Dallas last week?

Anyway, lines aside, here is a breakdown of each of the key areas in these games, and then a pick on who will win. I will break each area down from the team that is the best in that area to the team that is the worst. Each team will get 4 points for an area they are ranked 1st, 3 for 2nd, 2 for 3rd and 1 for 4th.


QBs - Indianapolis, New Orleans, Minnesota, NY Jets

This week we get three top notch, MVP caliber quarterbacks ... and then there is Mark Sanchez. As for the top three, it is a bit difficult to determine who is "number one." The easy answer is Peyton Manning, he of the four MVP awards, the most recent Super Bowl win, and all that jazz. But if you look a bit closer you are reminded that Manning just isn't that good when it comes to playoff time. He struggled mightily in the 2006 playoffs, when he backed in to a championship. He threw two interceptions within six plays last week (although one was called back due to defensive pass interference), and he has a tendency to melt under pressure. All that said, he also has shown a knack these past two years for finding ways to win, and that has to be worth something.

As for Brees and Favre, the tie breaker is twofold: Favre's age, and his penchant in the past for throwing untimely interceptions. He hasn't done it yet this year, but the man is 40 and has made a career out of it. It's gotta happen sometime.

Running Game - NY Jets, Minnesota, New Orleans, Indianapolis

The Jets have two serviceable running backs, and a dominate run blocking offensive line. The Vikings aren't far behind, but Peterson fumbles at inopportune times, and hasn't looked great the second half of the season; he ran for over 100 yards only three times this year, and only once since week 6. New Orleans has a three headed attack (at least) featuring Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush and Mike Bell, and has had decent success running the ball. Indianapolis has struggled running the ball all year, and even with Kris Jenkins out this trend should continue.

Passing Game - New Orleans, Indianapolis, Minnesota, NY Jets

I separated QBs from the passing game because leadership and calling a game should make that position weigh heavier than the others. from a strictly passing game perspective, nobody does more than New Orleans. They have all types of different formations, hot routes, and more depth than anyone. If Colston or Shockey don't kill you Henderson or Meachem will. Brees is a master at spreading the ball around, and pressure from the front four shouldn't bother him too much with his ability to unload the ball quickly and to audible.

I went back and forth on Indy and Minnesota a few times, but even though the Vikes have roughly the same talent level in their receiving corps (Rice, Berrian, Shiancoe, Taylor, Peterson to Wayne, Collie, Clark, Garcon and Addai), Manning is just better at operating the offense than Favre is. The Jets are just praying that they don't have to throw anything other than off of a play action.

Offensive Line - Minnesota, NY Jets, Indianapolis, New Orleans

None of these teams have a big issue here, so this was a difficult category to break down. Still, it is impossible to overlook what Minnesota's offensive line did with Dallas' vaunted pass rush last week, so they get the top spot. Watching D'Brickashaw Ferguson handle Shawne Merriman last week was also impressive, and the Jets run block better than any of these other teams. Indy doesn't have a great offensive line, but they are in sink with Peyton which counts for a ton. New Orleans has had some injury issues, which puts them at the bottom.

Defense - NY Jets, Minnesota, Indianapolis, New Orleans

Based on last week none of these teams have issues here either, but when you look a bit closer there are some areas that begin to show. The Jets are vulnerable to the run with Jenkins out, but are the cream of this crop. Minnesota, when health, is capable of dominating a game (just as Tony Romo). Indy has a defense based on speed over size, and that leaves them very vulnerable to teams which run right up the gut. New Orleans looked great last week, but has had some issues in the last half of the year. Still, with Jabari Greer healthy last week they looked like a different team.

Special Teams - New Orleans, NY Jets, Minnesota, Indianapolis

Reggie Bush showed last week how much of a game changer he can be, and the Jets (whether lucky or not) have had five straight missed field goals against them. Minnesota has Percy Harvin, and Indianapolis has an old kicker who has replaced an injured old kicker.

Coaching - New Orleans, NY Jets, Indianapolis, Minnesota

There are two tiers here: the haves (New Orleans and New York) and the have nots (Indy and the Viqueens). Sean Payton is the best remaining coach; he does more than any other coach in terms of clock management and adjusting the game plan on the fly. Rex Ryan isn't far behind, and his players believe in him and feed into his passion. These two are far ahead of their counterparts, the cadaver (Jim Caldwell) and the guy you would never leave your children with (Brad Childress). Now, I must say, I have no evidence that Caldwell is actually dead (other than the fact he stands on the sideline, on camera, and doesn't even blink, let alone move). Furthermore, I have no evidence that Childress is sketchy to leave one's children around (other than that beard). But all joking aside, Caldwell wins this battle because while we haven't seen him move, motivate his team, or ... well, do anything, we have seen Brad blow the big one year after year. Coaching genius he is not. If I had to put money on which coach would:

A) - mismanage the clock
B) - waste his team's time outs
C) - challenge a play that clearly has no chance of being overturned
D) - try to pull Brett Favre in the 3rd quarter of the game to save him for next week's Pro Bowl

I would wager on Childress in each instance. God Help Minnesota here.

Karma - New Orleans, New York, Indianapolis, Minnesota

Does Karma exist? Because, if it does, there are some very clearly drawn lines this weekend. New Orleans should get the benefit of the doubt because of Katrina, and let me tell you first hand that this team has done an incredible job helping that community out. They deserve it. Behind them is New York, because the Jets have seemingly been cursed and had all kinds of bad luck for decades. Behind them is Indy, because they THREW A GAME to the Jets, allowing New York to even make the playoffs, and intentionally losing to blow a perfect season. When your fans are booing you, when your QB looks like he wants to strangle you, you just know it isn't good. Furthermore, it just isn't good karma to throw your team under the bus on nearly every play that goes wrong like Mr. Manning does. But the real winner of the karma sweepstakes is Minnesota ... because karma just doesn't like it when you retire, then unretire, then retire again just so that your team will release you, just so you can unretire just to stick it to the franchise and the fan base that loved you for so long.

The Totals: New Orleans (23) New York (22) Minnesota (18) Indianapolis (17)

So ... what does that all mean? It clearly means we are headed to a New Orleans v New York Super Bowl. And, despite the fact that I really tried hard to be unbiased in my analysis, I think it also must mean that I ... undervalued Peyton Manning. That's how I'll word it. So, just remember, I thought New York had more going for it, even though my picks will be the following:

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - NY Jets at Indianapolis Colts

The Jets are not a great matchup for Indy, but are they as bad as they were for San Diego? Well, let's look at the areas we looked at for last week's game:

Running Games:

San Diego was 31st in the league in running offense. The only team that was worse? Indianapolis. The Colts, while averaging 8 yard per game fewer than San Diego, did average .2 yards per carry more. But, still, 3.5 yards per carry isn't that great, and it's not a good way to take advantage of the Jets biggest defensive weakness. New York, on the other hand, was the number one rushing offense in the NFL, at 172.3 yards per game.

As for rushing defense, the Chargers rushing defense ranked 20th in the NFL allowing 117.6 yards per game. The Colts? 24th at 126.5 yards per game allowed. For what it's worth, even after the injury to DT Kris Jenkins the Jets finished 8th in the NFL in rushing defense, allowing 98.6 yards per game. So far this matchup looks even better for the Jets than last week.

Passing Games:

San Diego was 5th in the NFL in passing yards per game, while the Colts are 2nd. (To a certain Texan who laughed at me when I mentioned the Jets shutting down the Texans, saying they didn't count, I would just like to point out that Houston ranked number one in the NFL in passing offense ). The Jets, who can't pass, ranked next to last; only the Browns were worse.

In passing defense, the Jets ranked first by quite a bit, as the following numbers illustrate:

Opponent's Completion Percentage: 51.7% (next best was 54.4%, Colts allowed 63.8% and San Diego 61%)

Passing Yards Allowed: 2,459 yards (next best was 2,948!!!)

Yards Per Attempt: 5.4 (next best was 6.0)

Passing TDs Allowed: 8 ... yes, only 8 in 16 games. (next best was 14)

Opponent QB Rating: 58.8 (next best was 61.1)

So the Jets were the best in each of these areas, and generally by quite a bit.

I don't know what all that means. I do believe in the power of momentum, as well as karma coming around to bite you in the rear. But it is so hard for me to believe that the Colts aren't going to crush the Jets, then crush whoever comes next. They just seem like the team of destiny this year, and if karma was going to bite them wouldn't it have happened last round? It sure seems as if it would have.

I also know what it's like to just not believe in a team and bet against them every week. I picked against the Cardinals every week last year, only getting it right in the Super Bowl. I've picked against the Jets twice, and twice they've proven me wrong. So if I pick the Jets will the lose to spite me? I don't know. But here is what I do know. The Jets will win this game if they do the following:

- Avoid giving up the big play (they are good at this)
- Control time of possession by pounding the run at a weak center of the Colts defensive line (they are good at this)
- Minimize the plays Mark Sanchez has to make, but put him in the position to succeed with play action plays called in favorable down and distance situations (again, they have shown they can be good at this the last few weeks)
- Keep the game close, allowing the pressure to build on Peyton and the Colts (they are experts at this)
- Use exotic blitz schemes to keep Peyton guessing, and to occasionally put him on his back (they can do this)

So close your eyes with me and imagine the following: 4th quarter, Jets up 17 to 13, three minutes left. The Indianapolis crowd has been quieter than normal because they just feel it happening again. The Colts face a 3rd and 9, knowing if they don't convert and have to punt it may be the game because the Jets have been running the ball so effectively. Jim Caldwell blew a stupid time out in the 3rd quarter, and Peyton Manning threw an interception trying to force the ball to Dallas Clark on the last possession. The crowd rises to its feet, Manning steps to the line...

Now you're telling me that just because Manning has become the expert at winning in those situations in the regular season I'm supposed to believe that a lifetime of big game experiences of coming short won't creep into his mind? That those fans won't be on the verge of booing, blaming the Colts for even allowing the Jets to make the playoffs? The number one rule in a horror movie is that you can't allow the villain to survive when you get the chance to off him. Now the Colts are facing that villain, and that villain has all the momentum. I know Colts fans, and I know that they will be prepared for the self destruction in that moment. And I believe that the Jets can get to that moment. What I can't believe is that I talked myself in to this...

THE PICK: Jets 20 - Colts 16


NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

This game, for me, is much more simple. Can the Vikings play the game of their lives for a second straight week? Can their defensive line dominate the way they did last week again? Even if they do, will Brees melt under pressure like Romo did? I just don't think that the following things can happen again:

- The aforementioned Vikings defense, which we can't forget gave up 36 points to the freaking Chicago Bears last month in a must win game, playing to perfection for a second straight week
- Brett Favre being error proof again, this time in a dome that is yelling at inopportune times
- Adrian Peterson avoiding the killer fumble again

Above all else, Sean Payton won't make the same coaching errors Wade Phillips did (such as attempting long field goals with inconsistent kickers when field position is the name of the game). Minnesota looked great last week. New Orleans looked like they were on a mission...

THE PICK: Saints 38 Vikings 17

NFL - Divisional Round Picks

Oh and four. Just think about that. I've been picking NFL playoff games for over a decade now, and I've never gone 0-4 picking games in the NFL playoff. So, how did it happen? What did I learn?

Glad you asked:

- I was right about two road teams winning, but wrong about which teams it would be
- The Cards continue to beat me up, as I have now picked against them five straight playoff games, and they have proven me wrong four times
- The Cowboys may be really good
- You still need to run the ball to win in the playoffs

That last point was driven home in three of the four games. So, without as much detail as last week, here are this weeks picks.


Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints

One thing I am sure of is that this will be a high scoring game, with lots of passing. The Saints finished the year losing their last three games, but it's tradition now to pick against the Cards in the playoffs. You're welcome Arizona fans (all three of you):

Saints 40 - Cardinals 32

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts

Three times this decade the Colts were the number one seed and rested their starters. Three times they lost their first game. They will be rusty, and Baltimore has a defense to help them get up early, and a running game to put the Colts away. But in a year that I went 0-4 in the first round, I just don't feel the good fortune of a Colts loss. In fact, this feels like the Ravens holding on to a 6 point lead, giving Manning the ball with 2 minutes left, and then watching him win the game, succeeding where he has failed so many times before. Man, I hate the Colts. Here's to hoping I get this one wrong:

Colts 24 - Ravens 23


Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings

I will be in Dallas for this game; the team, of course, will be in Minnesota. I can see this game going either way. If the Minnesota offensive line can't contain the Dallas front seven any better than Philly did last week this may not be much of a game. Still, Minnesota can run, which is something Philly clearly could not do. In another matchup of uninspiring coaches, I see this game coming down to who is more mistake prone. Sadly, it's Minnesota, with Favre's penchant for throwing when he shouldn't, and Peterson's habit of fumbling. I'd really rather both these teams lose:

Cowboys 34 - ViQueens 30


New York Jets at San Diego Chargers

The Jets D is scary good against the pass, and the Chargers offense is scary bad when running. Not a good matchup on paper. But again and again I come back to the Chargers as the most logical team to win it all. I hope I'm not jinxing them:

Chargers 27 - Jets 13

Life is busy ...

... but not too busy for my epic comeback into the world of blogging! What could possibly bring me back to this forum, ending my impromptu retirement (which, by the way, was brought on by large quantities of work)? Well, of course it has to be the NFL playoffs.

I didn't do spectacular with my preseason picks this year (R.I.P. Bears, because not only did you fail to make the playoffs, but by bringing back Lovie Smith's catatonic body you may officially be dead to me), but I also didn't do awful ... I think. Let's review my playoff predictions at the start of the year:

"So, for the playoffs, we have in order of seed:
AFC: New England, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Indianapolis, Baltimore and Houston.
NFC: Chicago, Philadelphia, New Orleans, San Francisco, Green Bay, New York"

So, how did I do? Well, lets just say I could have done better. In the AFC I was right about three of four divisional champions, missing on Pittsburgh (but then again, who didn't?). I was right about Baltimore as an AFC Wild Card team, and just missed on Houston (thanks for laying down Cincinnati...). So, in the long hall I was four for six in the AFC, missing on Pittsburgh and Houston, who were, instead, Cincinnati and the New York Jets. Not bad.

I didn't do nearly as well in the NFC, as I swung and missed big time on the Bears. My long debate at the start of the year between Chicago, Green Bay and Minnesota was resolved incorrectly, as Favre stayed healthy, and Cutler was possessed by the soul of Rex Grossman. Or something along those lines.

Anywho, I was correct about only one division winner in the NFC (New Orleans baby!), and one Wild Card team (Green Bay). I also was correct in stating that Philadelphia would make the playoffs, although their week 17 collapse kept me from being correct about not only their winning their division, but also their seed in the playoffs. I missed on San Francisco, Chicago, and the New York Giants.

So, on the whole, not awful. In a league where over half the teams which make the playoffs usually have missed it the year before my seven for twelve isn't all that bad. Now, on to the Wild Card Round:

NY JETS at CINCINNATI BENGALS

This game is not only tough to decipher (I could legitimately see it going either way), but it also is as boring a matchup as I can imagine. Seriously, who cares about this game? I know I don't. And I can't imagine you do either. Still, it has to be played, so here are a few things to consider:

-Mark Sanchez, a rookie QB who had a passer rating around 63, who threw many more INTs that TDs this year, is leading his team ON THE ROAD against a pretty tough defense.
- The Bengals have dealt with loss all year (from defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer's wife, to Chris Henry) and everyone seems to think they are going to be a one and done after last weeks lay down effort against the Jets.
- Both teams can run the ball with some semblance of effectiveness.
- Both teams have defenses in the top third of the NFL (although the Jets run defense isn't as good as it was at the start of the year with Kris Jenkins out).

So, what does it all mean? It means this game will probably be a good one to avoid watching. It means if you have to bet on this game, then take the Bengals minus the points, as the line has continued to shift towards the Jets. And it means that the Bengals will win, because they will stack the line and make Mark Sanchez beat them. Here's a hint: he won't.

FINAL SCORE: Cincinnati 23 - NY Jets 13


PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at DALLAS COWBOYS

This game looks like it should be a shoot out. I'm still not sure what to make about the Eagles laying a huge egg in week 17. It's not like they had nothing to play for; if they had won they would have been the 2 seed and gotten a bye week. Still, one game does not a season make, and this game will most likely not be a repeat of week 17's yawner.

In this game we have two troubled QBs (Romo and McNabb, both of whom are frowned upon by their own fan base for various reasons), with young, dynamic WRs (Miles Austin and DeSean Jackson) and able pass catching TEs (Jason Witten and Bret Celek). Both teams can rush the passer, although Dallas is better at it right now. Both teams feature defenses that can be thrown on. Both teams have coaches (Wade Phillips and Andy Reid) who struggle to manage the clock, time outs, or ... well, anything. The biggest difference between these two teams? The Eagles cannot run the ball to save their lives (trust me, I had Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy on various fantasy teams this year), while the Cowboys have a variety of backs who are capable of picking up yardage. Furthermore, Dallas won both of the matchups between these teams this year.

So, pick Dallas, right? As easy as this seems, it was only last week that everyone was on the Eagles bandwagon as a Super Bowl contender. I don't think this team fades that easily. They are dangerous, even without the run, because they can throw the ball down field. They can't control the clock to save their lives (and, even if they could, Andy Reid wouldn't know how to manage it), but I'm not sure they'll have to. I like Philly here; certainly to cover the spread, but also to win the game. Oh, and let's just say I also like the over on points...


FINAL SCORE: Philadelphia 38 - Dallas 31


BALTIMORE RAVENS at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS


This game, much like the Dallas - Philadelphia game, has a number of wrinkles to it. So let's break it down, position by position:

- QB: This is a no contest; Brady is still the winningest active QB in the NFL, he still has the aura around him, and this year, for the first time in quite some time, he has something to prove. Joe Flacco, on the other hand, has an exceptionally strong arm, but as the year went on Baltimore seemed to neuter him, holding him back more and more.

- RB: Another no contest, although not quite as definitively as it may look upon first glance. With Ray Rice, Willis McGahee and Le'Ron McClain in the backfield, Baltimore is clearly has the superior stable of running backs. That said, New England always seems to find a way to mix and match its collection of backs for optimal production. Sammy Morris, Laurence Maroney, Fred Taylor and Kevin Faulk may not stand alone against Ray Rice, but they don't have to. Baltimore wins the nod here, but it's not as lopsided as some may lead you to believe.

- WR: This was a no contest in favor of the Pats until Wes Welker went down week 17 with a bunch of torn ligaments in his knee. Now, it's closer to a draw, but Moss is still better (when motivated) than the solid veteran Derrick Mason, and Julian Edelman has done a solid Welker impersonation a few times this year. This area gives a slight advantage to the Patriots.

- TE: Todd Heap is slightly better than Ben Watson. Thus, the Ravens are slightly better than the Pats.

- OL: It depends on if the Ravens left tackle is healthy and stays in the game. If he does, the advantage goes to a Baltimore team that has the luxury of playing Michael Oher on the right side. If he's not, it moves to a draw.

- Defenses: Neither defense is what it used to be, but both still have their moments. The Ravens have more big name players, but the Pats were sneaky good this year. In that regard, it's a draw.

- Special Teams: the Patriots have the much more experienced, much better kicker. 'Nuff said.

- Coaches: I still believe in Belichick.

So, it all adds up to a game that should be close, should be interesting, and could go either way.

FINAL SCORE: New England 27 - Baltimore 19


GREEN BAY PACKERS at ARIZONA CARDINALS

Really, the most important factor of this game is that I picked against the Cardinals four times in last year's playoffs and only one the Super Bowl. This game should be a shoot out, with two high powered passing offenses. But, simply put, I think Green Bay is rolling, and is more than capable of putting up points to match Arizona, but they are also a better defensive team, and a better running team. If it's close Arizona has the more reliable kicker (although he is hurt), but I'm not sure it will be that close.

FINAL SCORE: Green Bay 34 - Arizona 24