Due to a nasty cold that's kept me on my back for four days, only quick picks this week. The lines seemed much more difficult to pick this week, so perhaps Vegas is adjusting. Either way, I wouldn't take these to the bank with my cold holding me back.
Last week against the spread: 9-5
Last week straight up: 10-4
Season against the spread: 75-54-3
Season straight up: 89-43
Thursday Night:
Colts (-3.5) over Jags
Sunday Early:
Giants (-4) over Cincinnati
Tennessee (+6) over Miami
Minnesota (+3) over Detroit
New England (-13) over Buffalo
New Orleans (+1) over Atlanta
Tampa (-3) over San Diego
Denver (-4) over Carolina
Baltimore (-9) over Oakland
Sunday Late:
Seattle (-6) over NY Jets
Dallas (-1) over Philadelphia
San Francisco (-13) over St. Louis
Sunday Night:
Chicago (-1) over Houston
Monday Night:
Pittsburgh (-13) over Kansas City
Sunday, November 11, 2012
Saturday, November 3, 2012
2012 NFL Week Picks - Week 9 PLUS The Presidential Election
The NFL season hits the midway point, and usually I'd do a retrospective on the preseason picks, tout what I was right on, explain away what I was not so right on, but this year we have an election next Tuesday. And, I think I speak for everyone when I say: THANK GOD the endless barrage of campaign commercials, emails and news releases is about to be over. Republican, Democrat, or anywhere in between I don't know how anyone can feel anything but disgusted with this process after this year.
That said, this week I'll strive to intertwine my football picks with some insight about the presidential election, and then a straightforward pick. First, let's look at how I'm doing through 8 weeks with my picks:
Last week against the spread: 9-5
Last week straight up: 13-1
Season against the spread: 66-49-3
Season straight up: 79-39
In short, I continue to have my best year both against the spread and straight up. You'd expect to do better straight up than against the spread, if only because Vegas would be losing big if it was as easy (or easier) to pick winners against the spread as straight up. That said, the lines have seemed much easier to pick this year than in years past. On to this week's picks:
Thursday Night Game:
Chiefs (+7.5) over San Diego (Chargers straight up)
Okay, we already know that I split on this one because the game happened. Have I mentioned that Thursday night football absolutely, positively sucks yet? Seriously, can we get rid of the NFL "braintrust" who thought this was a good idea yet? My logic behind the (failed) decision to take KC plus the points? As bad as KC is, Norv Turner has a tendency to keep games closer than they should be. He is an awful coach, and I don't even feel a little bit bad about losing the pick against the spread. I can't ever take the Norv Turners as more than a TD favorite.
As far as the Presidential Election goes, Missouri, the "Bell-weather" state, is no longer a swing state. I was there earlier this year, and let me tell you, that state is as reliably Republican as California is Democrat. It's so conservative that there is an outside chance that Akin wins the Senate election after having an honest conversation about how he believes a woman's body can reject semen when being raped if it's "true rape." Yeah, that happened this year, and believe it or not, thanks to a moron hailing from my state it wasn't even the most ridiculous rape comment of the election by a Republican Candidate.
Sunday Early Games
Denver (-4) over Cincinnati
Now here's two states that are actual swing states. Before I discuss Colorado and Ohio, let's look at these teams. On the one hand we have a Bengals team that has been hot then cold. They have appeared easy to score on, but intermittently able to score with the best of them. On the other side of the field we have a Broncos team that has lost to the Falcons, the Texans and the Patriots. You know, three of the best teams in the NFL (we think).
As for the states of Colorado and Ohio, both states are heavily in play right now. Romney and Obama are both directing major resources to both states, and Ohio is likely to be the state that keeps us up the longest waiting for the votes to trickle in. If Romney doesn't take Colorado Obama will be on his way to a big victory. The odds on pick here is that Romney takes Colorado by a slim margin, but that Obama takes Ohio by 2-3%. If Obama does take Ohio the road becomes very difficult for Romney, and as such you'll see major hail mary attempts in that state (more on that to come)
Baltimore (-4) over Cleveland
I have a hunch that this will be a bounce back game for the beat up Ravens, although it should be mentioned that Weeden has been better than expected. Continuing with Ohio, I find it interesting that Romney is running ads about Chrysler taking jobs overseas, which Chrysler execs are quick to discount. That's the type of Hail Mary ads you should be happy to be avoiding if you live in a non-swing state that's being (comparatively) ignored. Don't get me wrong, we are getting plenty of ads here in Hoosier land, but nothing compared with what's blasting Ohio.
Green Bay (-10) over Arizona
Wisconsin is supposedly a swing state. It's not. The dirty secret is that Paul Ryan isn't nearly as popular across the state as Romney would like you to believe. He's a Congressman; therefore, he needs to be popular in a small part of the state. He's not a Senator or Governor. Expect Obama to take Wisconsin by 4-5% and Romney to take Arizona going away. Oh, the game? I see a fifth straight loss for the Cardinals, and the Pack continuing to come on.
Chicago (-3.5) over Tennessee
I can't believe this spread is this low. But, again, after doing everything they could to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory last week and falling just short, the Bears may be who we have known them to be through the Lovie era: a maddeningly inconsistent team on offense buttressed by a all world defense and special teams. I hope that Cutler isn't hurt, but I suspect he is. Winning this game is essential given the remaining 8 games on the schedule, none of which could be considered a gimmy. As for the election, Illinois is solid blue, Tennessee solid red.
Indianapolis (+3) over Miami
The winner of this game is solidly in the drivers seat for a playoff appearance. While Miami has the far superior defense, I'll take Luck at home getting points. As for the election, the state of Indiana inexplicably went blue in 2008, which was pretty much the only shock of the night for me. Let's just say that I won't be shocked again: the state is back to being it's crazy conservative self. When you look at the stretch of blue you'll see on election night from the north east, through Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois and Wisconsin, Indiana will stand out.
Florida? The bane of the 2000 election will be less exciting this time. Due to a continued jobs and housing crisis you can put this state in Romney's ledger pretty easy. If Florida doesn't swing to Romney by 4-5% you can expect a long night for him. If, however, Florida does go to the GOP candidate quickly and decisively it might be an indicator that state polls have been off for the last few months. Florida should go to Romney, but how easily and quickly it does will go a long way to telling us what kind of night it will be.
Washington (-3) over Carolina
Remember last year when Cam Newton was the next big thing? Now the only reason you hear about him in the news is to debate if it's racist to compare him to Vince Young. Reality is RGIII is the hot new thing, and I think Washington takes this game going away. Obama's biggest win of the night will almost certainly be in the District of Columbia. North Carolina, much like Indiana, will go back to the right after a brief flirtation with the left in the last election.
Detroit (-5) over Jacksonville
This game should be an easy win for Detroit, who needs to find some offensive rhythm and maintain it for a few weeks. We've already covered Florida in the election, so a quick look at Michigan. Will the prodigal son, Romney, come back to take the state? In a word, no.
Houston (-10) over Buffalo
I don't like any lines that are in the double digits this year, but I also think Houston is good and Buffalo is not. I can only hope for a huge game from CJ Spiller for my fantasy team. In the election TX is dead red and NY all blue, so I'll simply say that all those on the East coast are in my prayers.
Sunday Late Games
Oakland (-1) over Tampa
Florida, as we've covered, is for Romney. For the purposes of this game, consider only that the loss of Nicks at guard for the Bucs will hurt the running game quite a bit. This line seems too low, so I'll go with the home team. I do feel like I'm taking too many favorites.
Minnesota (+4) over Seattle
Seattle is 3-0 at home and 1-4 on the road. Minnesota is 4-1 at home and 1-2 on the road. This game is in Seattle. I'll take the Vikings to cover and a final score of Seattle 27 Minnesota 24. As for the election, both these states will go blue, in spite of Romney's campaign suddenly talking about Minnesota being in play.
Pittsburgh (+3) over NY Giants
I'd feel better about this if it wasn't for the emotion of the Giants playing in the Meadowlands. But I think that this is the game where Pittsburgh either announces itself as the contender they've been for years, or starts to quietly fade away. Big Ben is playing great and they need a signature win. As mentioned before, PA will go blue, don't listen to what Romney/Ryan are saying.
Sunday Night Game
Atlanta (+4) over Dallas
As I speak, Notre Dame is trying an improbable comeback. For this game, let me say that Atlanta will lose, and probably more than once. Picking the game they'll drop is the big challenge. This spread reflects too much money on Dallas. I like Atlanta to cover going away. Just like Romney wins going away in Georgia and Dallas.
Monday Night Game
Philadelphia (+3) over New Orleans
As much as I hate to admit it, this is the game Philly needs and New Orleans is cursed as can be this year. The penultimate game of the Michael Vick era, and it happens in New Orleans on the Monday night after Hurricane Sandy decimates the East coast. I like the points, and this gives me four dogs in a row to end. Also, Louisiana goes to Romney easy.
The Presidential Election
Obama 281 to Romney 257
That's my prediction for the final score. How did I get there? Well, here's how the election will break down friends:
Alabama - Romney - 9
Alaska - Romney - 3
Arizona - Romney - 11
Arkansas - Romney - 6
California - Obama - 55
Colorado - Romney - 9
Connecticut - Obama - 7
Delaware - Obama - 3
D.C. - Obama - 3
Florida - Romney - 29
Georgia - Romney - 16
Hawaii - Obama - 4
Idaho - Romney - 4
Illinois - Obama - 20
Indiana - Romney - 11
Iowa - Obama - 6
Kansas - Romney - 6
Kentucky - Romney - 8
Louisiana - Romney - 8
Maine - Obama - 4
Maryland - Obama - 10
Massachusetts - Obama - 11
Michigan - Obama - 16
Minnesota - Obama - 10
Mississippi - Romney - 6
Missouri - Romney - 10
Montana - Romney - 3
Nebraska - Romney - 5
Nevada - Obama - 6
New Hampshire - Obama - 4
New Jersey - Obama - 14
New Mexico - Obama - 5
New York - Obama - 29
North Carolina - Romney - 15
North Dakota - Romney - 3
Ohio - Obama - 18
Oklahoma - Romney - 7
Oregon - Obama - 7
Pennsylvania - Obama - 20
Rhode Island - Obama - 4
South Carolina - Romney - 9
South Dakota - Romney - 3
Tennessee - Romney -11
Texas - Romney - 38
Utah - Romney - 6
Vermont - Obama - 3
Virginia - Romney - 13
Washington - Obama - 12
West Virginia - Romney - 5
Wisconsin - Obama - 10
Wyoming - Romney - 3
Even if Romney takes Florida, Colorado and Virginia Obama will win the election. I want to stress that I think Florida will go to Romney, but Colorado and Virginia are both toss ups in the definition of the word. Other "swing states" are much more leaning towards Obama. In other words, Obama is the odds on favorites. Enjoy your election drinking games. I'll break it down the night of if I'm so inspired. If not, at least when I make my picks next week there will be no more adds to annoy us.
That said, this week I'll strive to intertwine my football picks with some insight about the presidential election, and then a straightforward pick. First, let's look at how I'm doing through 8 weeks with my picks:
Last week against the spread: 9-5
Last week straight up: 13-1
Season against the spread: 66-49-3
Season straight up: 79-39
In short, I continue to have my best year both against the spread and straight up. You'd expect to do better straight up than against the spread, if only because Vegas would be losing big if it was as easy (or easier) to pick winners against the spread as straight up. That said, the lines have seemed much easier to pick this year than in years past. On to this week's picks:
Thursday Night Game:
Chiefs (+7.5) over San Diego (Chargers straight up)
Okay, we already know that I split on this one because the game happened. Have I mentioned that Thursday night football absolutely, positively sucks yet? Seriously, can we get rid of the NFL "braintrust" who thought this was a good idea yet? My logic behind the (failed) decision to take KC plus the points? As bad as KC is, Norv Turner has a tendency to keep games closer than they should be. He is an awful coach, and I don't even feel a little bit bad about losing the pick against the spread. I can't ever take the Norv Turners as more than a TD favorite.
As far as the Presidential Election goes, Missouri, the "Bell-weather" state, is no longer a swing state. I was there earlier this year, and let me tell you, that state is as reliably Republican as California is Democrat. It's so conservative that there is an outside chance that Akin wins the Senate election after having an honest conversation about how he believes a woman's body can reject semen when being raped if it's "true rape." Yeah, that happened this year, and believe it or not, thanks to a moron hailing from my state it wasn't even the most ridiculous rape comment of the election by a Republican Candidate.
Sunday Early Games
Denver (-4) over Cincinnati
Now here's two states that are actual swing states. Before I discuss Colorado and Ohio, let's look at these teams. On the one hand we have a Bengals team that has been hot then cold. They have appeared easy to score on, but intermittently able to score with the best of them. On the other side of the field we have a Broncos team that has lost to the Falcons, the Texans and the Patriots. You know, three of the best teams in the NFL (we think).
As for the states of Colorado and Ohio, both states are heavily in play right now. Romney and Obama are both directing major resources to both states, and Ohio is likely to be the state that keeps us up the longest waiting for the votes to trickle in. If Romney doesn't take Colorado Obama will be on his way to a big victory. The odds on pick here is that Romney takes Colorado by a slim margin, but that Obama takes Ohio by 2-3%. If Obama does take Ohio the road becomes very difficult for Romney, and as such you'll see major hail mary attempts in that state (more on that to come)
Baltimore (-4) over Cleveland
I have a hunch that this will be a bounce back game for the beat up Ravens, although it should be mentioned that Weeden has been better than expected. Continuing with Ohio, I find it interesting that Romney is running ads about Chrysler taking jobs overseas, which Chrysler execs are quick to discount. That's the type of Hail Mary ads you should be happy to be avoiding if you live in a non-swing state that's being (comparatively) ignored. Don't get me wrong, we are getting plenty of ads here in Hoosier land, but nothing compared with what's blasting Ohio.
Green Bay (-10) over Arizona
Wisconsin is supposedly a swing state. It's not. The dirty secret is that Paul Ryan isn't nearly as popular across the state as Romney would like you to believe. He's a Congressman; therefore, he needs to be popular in a small part of the state. He's not a Senator or Governor. Expect Obama to take Wisconsin by 4-5% and Romney to take Arizona going away. Oh, the game? I see a fifth straight loss for the Cardinals, and the Pack continuing to come on.
Chicago (-3.5) over Tennessee
I can't believe this spread is this low. But, again, after doing everything they could to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory last week and falling just short, the Bears may be who we have known them to be through the Lovie era: a maddeningly inconsistent team on offense buttressed by a all world defense and special teams. I hope that Cutler isn't hurt, but I suspect he is. Winning this game is essential given the remaining 8 games on the schedule, none of which could be considered a gimmy. As for the election, Illinois is solid blue, Tennessee solid red.
Indianapolis (+3) over Miami
The winner of this game is solidly in the drivers seat for a playoff appearance. While Miami has the far superior defense, I'll take Luck at home getting points. As for the election, the state of Indiana inexplicably went blue in 2008, which was pretty much the only shock of the night for me. Let's just say that I won't be shocked again: the state is back to being it's crazy conservative self. When you look at the stretch of blue you'll see on election night from the north east, through Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois and Wisconsin, Indiana will stand out.
Florida? The bane of the 2000 election will be less exciting this time. Due to a continued jobs and housing crisis you can put this state in Romney's ledger pretty easy. If Florida doesn't swing to Romney by 4-5% you can expect a long night for him. If, however, Florida does go to the GOP candidate quickly and decisively it might be an indicator that state polls have been off for the last few months. Florida should go to Romney, but how easily and quickly it does will go a long way to telling us what kind of night it will be.
Washington (-3) over Carolina
Remember last year when Cam Newton was the next big thing? Now the only reason you hear about him in the news is to debate if it's racist to compare him to Vince Young. Reality is RGIII is the hot new thing, and I think Washington takes this game going away. Obama's biggest win of the night will almost certainly be in the District of Columbia. North Carolina, much like Indiana, will go back to the right after a brief flirtation with the left in the last election.
Detroit (-5) over Jacksonville
This game should be an easy win for Detroit, who needs to find some offensive rhythm and maintain it for a few weeks. We've already covered Florida in the election, so a quick look at Michigan. Will the prodigal son, Romney, come back to take the state? In a word, no.
Houston (-10) over Buffalo
I don't like any lines that are in the double digits this year, but I also think Houston is good and Buffalo is not. I can only hope for a huge game from CJ Spiller for my fantasy team. In the election TX is dead red and NY all blue, so I'll simply say that all those on the East coast are in my prayers.
Sunday Late Games
Oakland (-1) over Tampa
Florida, as we've covered, is for Romney. For the purposes of this game, consider only that the loss of Nicks at guard for the Bucs will hurt the running game quite a bit. This line seems too low, so I'll go with the home team. I do feel like I'm taking too many favorites.
Minnesota (+4) over Seattle
Seattle is 3-0 at home and 1-4 on the road. Minnesota is 4-1 at home and 1-2 on the road. This game is in Seattle. I'll take the Vikings to cover and a final score of Seattle 27 Minnesota 24. As for the election, both these states will go blue, in spite of Romney's campaign suddenly talking about Minnesota being in play.
Pittsburgh (+3) over NY Giants
I'd feel better about this if it wasn't for the emotion of the Giants playing in the Meadowlands. But I think that this is the game where Pittsburgh either announces itself as the contender they've been for years, or starts to quietly fade away. Big Ben is playing great and they need a signature win. As mentioned before, PA will go blue, don't listen to what Romney/Ryan are saying.
Sunday Night Game
Atlanta (+4) over Dallas
As I speak, Notre Dame is trying an improbable comeback. For this game, let me say that Atlanta will lose, and probably more than once. Picking the game they'll drop is the big challenge. This spread reflects too much money on Dallas. I like Atlanta to cover going away. Just like Romney wins going away in Georgia and Dallas.
Monday Night Game
Philadelphia (+3) over New Orleans
As much as I hate to admit it, this is the game Philly needs and New Orleans is cursed as can be this year. The penultimate game of the Michael Vick era, and it happens in New Orleans on the Monday night after Hurricane Sandy decimates the East coast. I like the points, and this gives me four dogs in a row to end. Also, Louisiana goes to Romney easy.
The Presidential Election
Obama 281 to Romney 257
That's my prediction for the final score. How did I get there? Well, here's how the election will break down friends:
Alabama - Romney - 9
Alaska - Romney - 3
Arizona - Romney - 11
Arkansas - Romney - 6
California - Obama - 55
Colorado - Romney - 9
Connecticut - Obama - 7
Delaware - Obama - 3
D.C. - Obama - 3
Florida - Romney - 29
Georgia - Romney - 16
Hawaii - Obama - 4
Idaho - Romney - 4
Illinois - Obama - 20
Indiana - Romney - 11
Iowa - Obama - 6
Kansas - Romney - 6
Kentucky - Romney - 8
Louisiana - Romney - 8
Maine - Obama - 4
Maryland - Obama - 10
Massachusetts - Obama - 11
Michigan - Obama - 16
Minnesota - Obama - 10
Mississippi - Romney - 6
Missouri - Romney - 10
Montana - Romney - 3
Nebraska - Romney - 5
Nevada - Obama - 6
New Hampshire - Obama - 4
New Jersey - Obama - 14
New Mexico - Obama - 5
New York - Obama - 29
North Carolina - Romney - 15
North Dakota - Romney - 3
Ohio - Obama - 18
Oklahoma - Romney - 7
Oregon - Obama - 7
Pennsylvania - Obama - 20
Rhode Island - Obama - 4
South Carolina - Romney - 9
South Dakota - Romney - 3
Tennessee - Romney -11
Texas - Romney - 38
Utah - Romney - 6
Vermont - Obama - 3
Virginia - Romney - 13
Washington - Obama - 12
West Virginia - Romney - 5
Wisconsin - Obama - 10
Wyoming - Romney - 3
Even if Romney takes Florida, Colorado and Virginia Obama will win the election. I want to stress that I think Florida will go to Romney, but Colorado and Virginia are both toss ups in the definition of the word. Other "swing states" are much more leaning towards Obama. In other words, Obama is the odds on favorites. Enjoy your election drinking games. I'll break it down the night of if I'm so inspired. If not, at least when I make my picks next week there will be no more adds to annoy us.
Friday, October 26, 2012
2012 NFL Week Picks - Week 8
Again, due to time, quick picks:
Thursday Night:
Tampa (+5) over Minnesota
Sunday Early:
Chicago (-9) over Carolina
San Diego (-3) over Cleveland
Detroit (-1) over Seattle
Green Bay (-15) over Jacksonville
Indianapolis (+4) over Tennessee
St. Louis (+7) over New England (New England straight up)
Miami (+1) over the Jets
Atlanta (+3) over Philadelphia
Pittsburgh (-5) over Washington
Sunday Late:
Oakland (+2) over Kansas City
Giants (-1) over Cowboys
Sunday Night:
New Orleans (+6) over Denver
Monday Night:
San Fran (-7) over Arizona
Last week against the spread: 10-2-1
Last week straight up: 11-2
Season against the spread: 57-44-3
Season straight up: 66-38
As always, Thursday Night Football sucks.
Thursday Night:
Tampa (+5) over Minnesota
Sunday Early:
Chicago (-9) over Carolina
San Diego (-3) over Cleveland
Detroit (-1) over Seattle
Green Bay (-15) over Jacksonville
Indianapolis (+4) over Tennessee
St. Louis (+7) over New England (New England straight up)
Miami (+1) over the Jets
Atlanta (+3) over Philadelphia
Pittsburgh (-5) over Washington
Sunday Late:
Oakland (+2) over Kansas City
Giants (-1) over Cowboys
Sunday Night:
New Orleans (+6) over Denver
Monday Night:
San Fran (-7) over Arizona
Last week against the spread: 10-2-1
Last week straight up: 11-2
Season against the spread: 57-44-3
Season straight up: 66-38
As always, Thursday Night Football sucks.
Friday, October 19, 2012
2012 NFL Week Picks - Week 7
Due to an inordinate amount of paper writing I have to do this weekend, only the picks and none of the witty commentary this week:
Last Week Against The Spread: 5-9 (YUCK!)
Last Week Straight Up:6-8 (Yuck!)
Season Against the Spread: 47-42-2
Season Straight Up: 55-36
Thursday Night Game
Seattle (+8) over San Francisco (49ers straight up)
Sunday Early Games
Buffalo (-3) over Tennessee
Indianapolis (-1) over Cleveland
Green Bay (-6) over St. Louis
Arizona (+7) over Minnesota (Minnesota Straight Up)
Redskins (+6) over NY Giants (Giants straight up)
New Orleans (-1) over Tampa Bay
Dallas (-1) over Carolina
Houston (-7) over Baltimore
Sunday Late Games
Jacksonville (+4) over Oakland
Jets (+11) over New England (Patriots Straight Up)
Sunday Night Game
Pittsburgh (-1) over Cincinnati
Monday Night Game
Chicago (-7) over Detroit (Ditka (-100) over Jim Schwartz' punk @$$ :-)
As always, Thursday Night Football SUCKS!
Last Week Against The Spread: 5-9 (YUCK!)
Last Week Straight Up:6-8 (Yuck!)
Season Against the Spread: 47-42-2
Season Straight Up: 55-36
Thursday Night Game
Seattle (+8) over San Francisco (49ers straight up)
Sunday Early Games
Buffalo (-3) over Tennessee
Indianapolis (-1) over Cleveland
Green Bay (-6) over St. Louis
Arizona (+7) over Minnesota (Minnesota Straight Up)
Redskins (+6) over NY Giants (Giants straight up)
New Orleans (-1) over Tampa Bay
Dallas (-1) over Carolina
Houston (-7) over Baltimore
Sunday Late Games
Jacksonville (+4) over Oakland
Jets (+11) over New England (Patriots Straight Up)
Sunday Night Game
Pittsburgh (-1) over Cincinnati
Monday Night Game
Chicago (-7) over Detroit (Ditka (-100) over Jim Schwartz' punk @$$ :-)
As always, Thursday Night Football SUCKS!
Tuesday, October 9, 2012
2012 NFL Week Picks - Week Six
Last week against the spread: 8-6
Last week straight up: 10-4
Season against the spread: 42-33-2
Season straight up: 49-28
Another solid week last week, finishing ahead against the spread and a solid 10-4 straight up. Eerily, as I look back to my week six picks last year, I started by posting my record, which was as follows:
"Last week against the spread: 9-4
Last week straight up: 10-3
Season against the spread: 38-37-2
Season straight up: 52-25"
So, at this point in the year I am doing much better against the spread and slightly worse straight up. That said, 21 games above .500 straight up isn't bad, and I'll always take nine games up on the spread every five weeks. This week I'm looking to build momentum, but during a dangerous week. Why is this week dangerous, you might ask? In fact, I'll answer this as if my millions (read: three) of readers were asking it aloud:
Question: Mike, why is this week dangerous?
Answer: Thanks millions (read: three) of faithful readers! I'll tell you why it's a dangerous week for me. You see, my fantasy football team has already decided it's not interested in commemorating Aaron Rodgers final season with my team by going for a fourth straight third place finish. Instead, everything that could go wrong has gone wrong. To wit, my fiancee moved me up to the number six pick, the worst possible place to draft in our twelve team league this year. Then, Chris Johnson was the only option sitting at number six worth drafting (side note: I was unaware at the time that last year's "down" year for Chris Johnson was actually a great year compared to what he was going to bring to the table this year. In hindsight, I could have drafted Curtis Enis and probably been better off because at least I could cut Enis. But I digress). I followed that up by having Steven Jackson fall to me, then Larry Fitzgerald, then Brandon Lloyd. My draft plan was completely screwed up and the players I wanted kept getting taken right ahead of my pick. I took a plethora of 2nd tier running backs and wide receivers, needing to only hit on one or two to have a great team. I then hit on C.J. Spiller then watched him get injured and now am watching him get stuck in a running back by committee. Needless to say I'm 2-3, scoring nowhere near enough points to fathom making the playoff redraft, and I'm ready to sell off my team for draft picks next year. The problem with this? Nobody in my league wants to trade yet. So that's one reason why this week is dangerous: I'm checked out of fantasy football, so I'm not really paying attention to the other teams. The other reason is much simpler: the Bears are on a bye week, and I work all day Sunday, so I have nothing to draw me in this week.
So, with the challenge of fantasy apathy, a Bears' bye week, and a marathon double shift on Sunday, consider yourself warned: all the signs are there for a picks regression. Still, I'll try.
ON TO THE PICKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
(New Orleans, Carolina and Jacksonville join Chicago on the bye ... that alone should make gambling more difficult with three stay away teams on the sideline)
Thursday Night Game
Pittsburgh (-5) over Tennessee - My thoughts: Pittsburgh has a running game again, and was able to beat a (supposedly) good Eagles team last week. Tennessee doesn't look good. The sad thing? I'll end up starting Chris Johnson again this week because I have no other good options.
Sunday Day Games
Atlanta (-9) over Oakland - My thoughts: Atlanta should be able to score on Oakland, and Palmer is liable to be down three, pressing, and throw a game ending TAINT (Touchdown After Interception). Or Atlanta might just kill them. Either way, this line would have to be 10+ for me to take the points and Oakland.
Cincinnati (-1) over Cleveland - My thoughts: This is free money, right? Even if Cincinnati is the "good bad team" this year, we also are sure that Cleveland is one of the "bad bad teams" right? Is Andy Dalton currently abducted by aliens? A.J. Green? How does this line makes sense?
St. Louis (+4) over Miami - My thoughts: I'm not sure if St. Louis is the best "good bad team" or the worst "bad good team" but I think I'll take more than three for them against a Miami team due for regression after last week.
Jets (-3) over Indianapolis - My thoughts: The Jets held it together against Houston; I think that Indy had their emotional win last week, and this becomes a defacto must win for Rex and the Jets. This feels like the game the Jets win that starts the "are the Jets going to be ok" talk. You know, the one that comes right before the next lopsided loss restarting the "should Tebow replace Sanchez" talk.
Philadelphia (-5) over Detroit - My thoughts: this game is like a movable object going up against a stoppable force. Andy Reid is a terrible coach. Jim Schwartz is a terrible coach. We will leave this game either thinking that the Eagles are frauds and not very good, or that the Lions are done. I hate giving points when Andy Reid is involved, but Detroit has looked bad, and Philly's defense is actually pretty good.
Tampa Bay (-3) over Kansas City - My thoughts: YUCK! That's my main thought about this game. My second thought would be when a home team is -3 that means Vegas thinks the game is even. The final thought: if you have to make a pick in this game, go against Romeo on the road.
Baltimore (-4) over Dallas - My thoughts: The Raven's disappointing game last week brings this line down way too far. I saw what can be done to Dallas when my Bears did it to them. Baltimore may have some flaws, but that team can do the same to Dallas
Sunday Late Games
Buffalo (+5) over Arizona - My thoughts: Buffalo has looked AWFUL the last two weeks. But Arizona continues to look worse and worse on offense; they have no running game, and no QB to throw the ball to Fitzgerald (remember, he's on my fantasy team so I know this). I'd stay away from this game entirely, but gun to head I'd take the points on the thoughts of a rebound game for Buffalo. (NOTE: After making this pick I found out Dave Wannstedt is the Bills defensive coordinator. That explains how their defense gave up over 1,200 yards in the last two games and nearly 100 points. Needless to say, I might take this game back if I could, but since I already wrote it I'll just hedge saying ARIZONA STRAIGHT UP. Also, how the hell is Dave Wannstedt still getting coaching jobs in football? Would you hire him to coach a pee-wee league team?)
New England (-4) over Seattle - My thoughts: this line seems low, and I like the way that New England is playing. Tough defense, tough running game, a little Brady sprinkled in ... holy crap, did I just time warp back to 2003?
San Francisco (-5) over NY Giants - My thoughts: revenge for the NFC title game. Also, San Fran is playing well, and the Giants just let Brandon Weeden roll 27 points up on them.
Minnesota (+2) over Washington - My thoughts: if Cousins is the QB this is a no brainer: take the points. If RGIII is healthy this becomes more of a tough question.
Sunday Night Game
Houston (-4) over Green Bay - My thoughts: a "season may be on the line early" type game for the Pack. Do you realize they are very close to being 1-4, and that the only team they showed up against was my Bears? Do you realize that if Houston wins this game we'll have the talking heads on ESPN talking all week about how Houston is Super Bowl bound, and the Packers are on life support? Do you realize that I'm a Bears fan, and that the Colts playing the Packers is the only possible scenario where I would root for the Colts ... so I celebrated the Packers' late choke last week? Do you realize I'm answering the "my thoughts" segment with only questions at this point?
Monday Night Game
Denver (+1) over San Diego - My thoughts: A week ago, San Diego was 3-1 and starting to get "the Chargers just MIGHT run away with this division" buzz. I'm amazed how many people forget that Norv Turner is still (inexplicably) coaching this team. Manning wins, both teams come out 3-3, and the buzz goes to "when will Norv get fired?" again. The world will feel more right at that point.
Enjoy football for me everyone, I'll be working. As always, Thursday night football SUCKS.
Last week straight up: 10-4
Season against the spread: 42-33-2
Season straight up: 49-28
Another solid week last week, finishing ahead against the spread and a solid 10-4 straight up. Eerily, as I look back to my week six picks last year, I started by posting my record, which was as follows:
"Last week against the spread: 9-4
Last week straight up: 10-3
Season against the spread: 38-37-2
Season straight up: 52-25"
So, at this point in the year I am doing much better against the spread and slightly worse straight up. That said, 21 games above .500 straight up isn't bad, and I'll always take nine games up on the spread every five weeks. This week I'm looking to build momentum, but during a dangerous week. Why is this week dangerous, you might ask? In fact, I'll answer this as if my millions (read: three) of readers were asking it aloud:
Question: Mike, why is this week dangerous?
Answer: Thanks millions (read: three) of faithful readers! I'll tell you why it's a dangerous week for me. You see, my fantasy football team has already decided it's not interested in commemorating Aaron Rodgers final season with my team by going for a fourth straight third place finish. Instead, everything that could go wrong has gone wrong. To wit, my fiancee moved me up to the number six pick, the worst possible place to draft in our twelve team league this year. Then, Chris Johnson was the only option sitting at number six worth drafting (side note: I was unaware at the time that last year's "down" year for Chris Johnson was actually a great year compared to what he was going to bring to the table this year. In hindsight, I could have drafted Curtis Enis and probably been better off because at least I could cut Enis. But I digress). I followed that up by having Steven Jackson fall to me, then Larry Fitzgerald, then Brandon Lloyd. My draft plan was completely screwed up and the players I wanted kept getting taken right ahead of my pick. I took a plethora of 2nd tier running backs and wide receivers, needing to only hit on one or two to have a great team. I then hit on C.J. Spiller then watched him get injured and now am watching him get stuck in a running back by committee. Needless to say I'm 2-3, scoring nowhere near enough points to fathom making the playoff redraft, and I'm ready to sell off my team for draft picks next year. The problem with this? Nobody in my league wants to trade yet. So that's one reason why this week is dangerous: I'm checked out of fantasy football, so I'm not really paying attention to the other teams. The other reason is much simpler: the Bears are on a bye week, and I work all day Sunday, so I have nothing to draw me in this week.
So, with the challenge of fantasy apathy, a Bears' bye week, and a marathon double shift on Sunday, consider yourself warned: all the signs are there for a picks regression. Still, I'll try.
ON TO THE PICKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
(New Orleans, Carolina and Jacksonville join Chicago on the bye ... that alone should make gambling more difficult with three stay away teams on the sideline)
Thursday Night Game
Pittsburgh (-5) over Tennessee - My thoughts: Pittsburgh has a running game again, and was able to beat a (supposedly) good Eagles team last week. Tennessee doesn't look good. The sad thing? I'll end up starting Chris Johnson again this week because I have no other good options.
Sunday Day Games
Atlanta (-9) over Oakland - My thoughts: Atlanta should be able to score on Oakland, and Palmer is liable to be down three, pressing, and throw a game ending TAINT (Touchdown After Interception). Or Atlanta might just kill them. Either way, this line would have to be 10+ for me to take the points and Oakland.
Cincinnati (-1) over Cleveland - My thoughts: This is free money, right? Even if Cincinnati is the "good bad team" this year, we also are sure that Cleveland is one of the "bad bad teams" right? Is Andy Dalton currently abducted by aliens? A.J. Green? How does this line makes sense?
St. Louis (+4) over Miami - My thoughts: I'm not sure if St. Louis is the best "good bad team" or the worst "bad good team" but I think I'll take more than three for them against a Miami team due for regression after last week.
Jets (-3) over Indianapolis - My thoughts: The Jets held it together against Houston; I think that Indy had their emotional win last week, and this becomes a defacto must win for Rex and the Jets. This feels like the game the Jets win that starts the "are the Jets going to be ok" talk. You know, the one that comes right before the next lopsided loss restarting the "should Tebow replace Sanchez" talk.
Philadelphia (-5) over Detroit - My thoughts: this game is like a movable object going up against a stoppable force. Andy Reid is a terrible coach. Jim Schwartz is a terrible coach. We will leave this game either thinking that the Eagles are frauds and not very good, or that the Lions are done. I hate giving points when Andy Reid is involved, but Detroit has looked bad, and Philly's defense is actually pretty good.
Tampa Bay (-3) over Kansas City - My thoughts: YUCK! That's my main thought about this game. My second thought would be when a home team is -3 that means Vegas thinks the game is even. The final thought: if you have to make a pick in this game, go against Romeo on the road.
Baltimore (-4) over Dallas - My thoughts: The Raven's disappointing game last week brings this line down way too far. I saw what can be done to Dallas when my Bears did it to them. Baltimore may have some flaws, but that team can do the same to Dallas
Sunday Late Games
Buffalo (+5) over Arizona - My thoughts: Buffalo has looked AWFUL the last two weeks. But Arizona continues to look worse and worse on offense; they have no running game, and no QB to throw the ball to Fitzgerald (remember, he's on my fantasy team so I know this). I'd stay away from this game entirely, but gun to head I'd take the points on the thoughts of a rebound game for Buffalo. (NOTE: After making this pick I found out Dave Wannstedt is the Bills defensive coordinator. That explains how their defense gave up over 1,200 yards in the last two games and nearly 100 points. Needless to say, I might take this game back if I could, but since I already wrote it I'll just hedge saying ARIZONA STRAIGHT UP. Also, how the hell is Dave Wannstedt still getting coaching jobs in football? Would you hire him to coach a pee-wee league team?)
New England (-4) over Seattle - My thoughts: this line seems low, and I like the way that New England is playing. Tough defense, tough running game, a little Brady sprinkled in ... holy crap, did I just time warp back to 2003?
San Francisco (-5) over NY Giants - My thoughts: revenge for the NFC title game. Also, San Fran is playing well, and the Giants just let Brandon Weeden roll 27 points up on them.
Minnesota (+2) over Washington - My thoughts: if Cousins is the QB this is a no brainer: take the points. If RGIII is healthy this becomes more of a tough question.
Sunday Night Game
Houston (-4) over Green Bay - My thoughts: a "season may be on the line early" type game for the Pack. Do you realize they are very close to being 1-4, and that the only team they showed up against was my Bears? Do you realize that if Houston wins this game we'll have the talking heads on ESPN talking all week about how Houston is Super Bowl bound, and the Packers are on life support? Do you realize that I'm a Bears fan, and that the Colts playing the Packers is the only possible scenario where I would root for the Colts ... so I celebrated the Packers' late choke last week? Do you realize I'm answering the "my thoughts" segment with only questions at this point?
Monday Night Game
Denver (+1) over San Diego - My thoughts: A week ago, San Diego was 3-1 and starting to get "the Chargers just MIGHT run away with this division" buzz. I'm amazed how many people forget that Norv Turner is still (inexplicably) coaching this team. Manning wins, both teams come out 3-3, and the buzz goes to "when will Norv get fired?" again. The world will feel more right at that point.
Enjoy football for me everyone, I'll be working. As always, Thursday night football SUCKS.
Wednesday, October 3, 2012
2012 NFL Picks Week 5 - In Brief
Most of my writing time went to the debate tonight; here's the picks for the week.
Last week against the spread: 9-6
Last week straight up: 14-1!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (I had to count this three times)
Season against the spread: 34-27-2
Season straight up: 39-24
Thursday Night:
St Louis (+1) over Arizona
Sunday Early Games
Cincinnati (-3) over Miami
Green Bay (-7) over Indianapolis
Baltimore (-6) over Kansas City
NY Giants (-8) over Cleveland
Pittsburgh (-3) over Philadelphia
Atlanta (-3) over Washington
Sunday Late Games
Seattle (+3) over Carolina
Chicago (-6) over Jacksonville
Tennessee (+6) over Minnesota
New England (-7) over Denver
San Francisco (-10) over Buffalo
Sunday Night Game
San Diego (+4) over New Orleans
Monday Night
Jets (+9) over Houston (Houston straight up)
Last week against the spread: 9-6
Last week straight up: 14-1!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (I had to count this three times)
Season against the spread: 34-27-2
Season straight up: 39-24
Thursday Night:
St Louis (+1) over Arizona
Sunday Early Games
Cincinnati (-3) over Miami
Green Bay (-7) over Indianapolis
Baltimore (-6) over Kansas City
NY Giants (-8) over Cleveland
Pittsburgh (-3) over Philadelphia
Atlanta (-3) over Washington
Sunday Late Games
Seattle (+3) over Carolina
Chicago (-6) over Jacksonville
Tennessee (+6) over Minnesota
New England (-7) over Denver
San Francisco (-10) over Buffalo
Sunday Night Game
San Diego (+4) over New Orleans
Monday Night
Jets (+9) over Houston (Houston straight up)
The First Presidential Debate: A Running Diary
Well, with an interesting presidential election looming (see my previous picks column for a break down of why it's interesting), how could I not do a live blog with my blow by blow reaction? After watching some pre-debate coverage on Fox News and MSNBC I finally settled on CNN to watch the debate, largely due to Wolf Blitzer's awesome beard. Man do I miss Tim Russert.
As always, I write the time stamp and what my thoughts are. Tonight's debate was supposed to focus on domestic politics, and we'll see how well Jim Lehr does holding to that. The general consensus seems to be that Romney needs to do a great job and win this debate going away to get the momentum he's been searching for. The Democrats seem to be saying that they believe the race is too close to call in spite of polling momentum going their way. Not bad to play dead and hope that increases your chance to see voter turnout up. Personally, I think that this debate hinges on if Romney can attack Obama without seeming like he's attacking Obama. Romney is the superior debater historically, but he can be knocked off kilter when his opponent manages to counter his rebuttals and attack lines while moving the point of conversation. Without further delay, here we go:
8:57pm - Little mentioned but potentially huge fact: Obama hasn't debated since 2008, whereas Romney debated somewhere north of 20 times in the Republican Primary alone. At least it felt that way. Fact check...Wikipedia says twenty on the head.
9:01pm - I feel like there should be A) Gambling odds for inane things like "over under 45.5 times the phrase 'middle class' is mentioned tonight" and B) a drinking game where you drink every time something like that is said. Wolf Blitzer tells me that Obama won the coin toss to go first, and Romney gets to go last. Doesn't it feel like Obama should have deferred to the last response? Is that even allowed? Actually, who am I kidding: as a Bears fan Obama probably is going to wait to get to the podium, look around confused, then call a time out.
9:04pm - Obama in the blue tie, Romney in red. I feel like if I was in this debate I'd wear the other guy's color just to screw with them. Economy starts with a question on jobs... and we're off. Romney is writing notes on Obama wishing Michele a happy 20th anniversary. One minute in and Obama is still setting up his answer. He ended up settling on setting up the paradigm that Romney thinks it's all about tax cuts, and whereas he described a diversified approach centered on education.
9:07pm - Romney hit well with joke about Obama spending his anniversary with him, then goes right into multiple stories from American people. Strong start by Romney, quickly describing a dichotomy between not only he and Obama, but quickly countering Obama's claim that his approach is top down. Still, after two minutes he didn't really get into any policy specifics. He did, however, hit Obama by claiming his approach is "trickle down" government. Did he just hit Reagan's legacy?
9:10pm - Obama counters by talking more about education. Seems dangerously close to pandering to the hall (at a University) rather than going for the viewers at home. He then transitions into talking about tax code, then energy. Obama's attempt seems to be to go after Romney on the tax issue while saying "I'm the authority on education and energy." First mention of the deficit tonight. First hit on Romney's tax plan from Obama.
9:12pm - Romney gives a rebuttal that says that high income people will not get a break under him... then uses Biden's terminology that the middle class is "crushed" twice. Anyone want to be that there will be a commercial showing Romney and Biden back to back saying the middle class is being "crushed" soon?
9:15pm - So Romney was asked to ask the president a question, then went on a multi-minute rant. He did say "by the way, I like coal." I want Obama to say "I love lamp" pretty bad here. At any rate, Romney went way long and didn't ask a question. It sounds to me like Romney is describing a tax plan that does little but shuffle the chips around at best: cut taxes, eliminate exemptions, deficit gone? Doesn't add up. Obama counters by saying that he did what he said he would: cut taxes for the middle class. Obama's going intellectual with his response, which makes him sound like Kerry/Gore ... not the contrast he wants.
9:18pm - Romney says that Obama is misrepresenting ... but doesn't explain how. Then he calls Obama a liar without saying it directly. Romney promises he will not under any circumstances raise taxes on middle income families. Obama comes right back at Romney saying he ran on a tax plan for eighteen months, and now is saying his "big bold idea is never mind." He then comes back with "it's math. It's arithmetic." I really get the feel, only eighteen minutes in, that these guys don't really like each other. Obama brings up Clinton first, and tells the American people he wants to go back to the tax rates that encouraged Clinton era growth.
9:22pm - Obama goes for a Trump joke that seems to miss. At the present time Romney doesn't look nearly as comfortable as Obama. Jim Lehr tries to get things back on track and Romney talks over him quite a bit. Romney hits Obama on his tax plan hurting small businesses more; he also mentions Bowls-Simpson first. Obama goes right back at the tax issue, speaking right to the American people.
9:25pm - Obama ties Romney's approach to Bush directly for the first time. He then directly ties his approach to Clinton. So there you have it: A third Bush term, or a fourth Clinton term. I'm glad we could simplify this. Lehr still has not gotten them off the first subject, he tries again, and Romney talks over it again. Romney keeps saying "that's not my plan" and then says his plan is not like anything that's been done before.
9:27pm - we finally move to the second segment, this one on the deficit. Romney articulates three options to cut the deficit. Romney than says that he likes Big Bird, but will stop the subsidy for PBS. Basically, he'll cut taxes to grow the economy, then cut programs. Obama's responds by going back to Bush and illustrating the state of the deficit and how it got here. A major strength here, and Obama gets on his wheel horse. I'm not sure how he can own an issue that he's struggled so much with, but he does. Obama does great explaining his balanced approach and then contrasting Romney as unbalanced.
9:32pm - Finally we get some back and forth ... might see the gloves come off a bit. Romney says that he has his own plan and it's not Simpson-Bowls, but that Obama should have grabbed on to Simpson Bowls. If I remember correctly the House shot that plan down. Romney slams taxes again "you raise taxes, you kill jobs." Obama looks annoyed, not a great thing for him. Romney states emphatically that he has ruled out increasing revenue entirely. Romney keeps talking over Lehr.
9:35pm - Obama now goes after the oil industry tax rates. I'm confused: what happened to the talk about the deficit. Use of Exon Mobile as a straw man by Obama here. Obama says he wants to do the same thing with closing loopholes that Romney says he wants to do, only he can actually say what he wants to do, not just that he will do it. Obama's first use of an "everyday American" story to four by Romney.
9:37pm - Twix break... mmmm..... Twix ....
9:39pm - Romney confronts Obama for lying a second time (again, without saying it directly). Obama is the first person to mention Reagan. We've moved on to Social Security. Obama goes to his grandmother to set up his argument. I'm shocked that Obama says "you don't need a major structural change to make sure social security is there for the future." Absolutely shocked.
9:43pm - Romney goes right after Obama on the Medicare cuts, saying he'd put the money right back in. Well, not exactly right after: he was on different chain of thinking then suddenly remembered he was supposed to be against "Obamacare" and switched course. Obama tries to get some footing by going after Romney's voucher program, but he stumbles out of the corner trying to establish this point. Obama then embraces the "Obamacare" term and illustrates why a repeal would increase cost on seniors.
9:48pm - Neither candidate has had an "ah ha" moment yet. I'd be inclined to say Romney is winning on logic, but Obama is winning in terms of presentation. Romney seems edgy and aggressive. In terms of speaking time Obama has opened a small lead over Romney. In other news, I kinda wish this was a foreign policy debate. I'm starting to think that I should start work on my NFL picks this week.
9:53pm - "Does anybody out there think that the problem we've had was due to too much regulation on wall street?" Obama scores there. Romney comes swinging back. I'm on to salt water taffy.
9:58pm - Moving to health care. First time we've heard the term Affordable Care Act. Romney opens up by talking about the cost of health care, then says that "Obamacare" is adding to cost. For the record, "Obamacare" hasn't had a negative impact on my company's bottom line. Interesting the Romney never smiles with his teeth. He just looks tight and uncomfortable.
10:00pm - Obama goes in to the positives of the ACA. Lehr is trying to hold the line, but failing. Can we send him out to pasture? I miss Tim Russert. Text in from my mother noting that Romney's been too aggressive. Obama looks much more comfortable on stage than Romney.
10:07pm - Romney blatantly lies about his "plan" by stating his plan covers pre-existing conditions and kids up to 26. He says these were already staples of the private market. If he thinks that he's out to lunch. He's also all but saying "death panel" repeatedly.
10:10pm - Obama goes through a number of things that Romney has promised tonight but outlines how he hasn't said anything about how he's going to do it. Romney barrels over Jim Lehr to get a response he didn't have the right to according to debate rules.
10:14pm - Jim Lehr has been pretty much worthless tonight. Now we are on to the role of government. Obama's first response is to keep American's safe and to create frameworks to help people to succeed. He then illustrates how past instances of the government investing have led to dividends.
10:17pm - Romney goes back to the constitution, thereby not answering the question. Obama continues to stretch out his time advantage. Now talking about student loans.
10:22pm - And here comes the blow on Romney's statement that people should just borrow from their parents to go to school. Obama's not scoring well on this topic, and Romney AGAIN calls Obama a liar without doing so directly. The lack of political acumen shocks me. Romney goes after the green energy campaigns again. It's amazing to me that he could be so short sighted on energy.
10:25pm - Getting close to the wrap up point, and Lehr did such a poor job that they missed an entire topic. He finishes up on partisan gridlock. Romney gives a pretty nondescript answer. Obama has a tougher standard with this question to hit. He responds that he will meet with anyone as long as the goal is helping further the opportunities of the American people. Obama manages to get a Bin Laden references in as well. He finishes up with nearly a minute advantage in speaking time, but it felt like Romney was the person refusing to stop talking most of the time tonight. Good job by Obama in that regard.
10:28pm - Obama stumbles out of the gate on his closing statement. He has had a hard time with transitions tonight. He didn't really go anwhere, but Romney goes right to the core and hits his talking points without any issue. A strong finish by Romney, who wanted to go last exactly for this reason.
Final Verdict: Romney did a great job staying on topic and Obama never took him out of his comfort zone. From a standpoint of actual academic topics the debate was nearly a draw, with perhaps a slight edge to Romney. Obama didn't really go after Romney much at all, nothing about any of the major attack points. Obama clearly looked more comfortable however, and if JFK v Nixon tells us anything, its that the person who looks more presidential sometimes takes a big advantage.
As always, I write the time stamp and what my thoughts are. Tonight's debate was supposed to focus on domestic politics, and we'll see how well Jim Lehr does holding to that. The general consensus seems to be that Romney needs to do a great job and win this debate going away to get the momentum he's been searching for. The Democrats seem to be saying that they believe the race is too close to call in spite of polling momentum going their way. Not bad to play dead and hope that increases your chance to see voter turnout up. Personally, I think that this debate hinges on if Romney can attack Obama without seeming like he's attacking Obama. Romney is the superior debater historically, but he can be knocked off kilter when his opponent manages to counter his rebuttals and attack lines while moving the point of conversation. Without further delay, here we go:
8:57pm - Little mentioned but potentially huge fact: Obama hasn't debated since 2008, whereas Romney debated somewhere north of 20 times in the Republican Primary alone. At least it felt that way. Fact check...Wikipedia says twenty on the head.
9:01pm - I feel like there should be A) Gambling odds for inane things like "over under 45.5 times the phrase 'middle class' is mentioned tonight" and B) a drinking game where you drink every time something like that is said. Wolf Blitzer tells me that Obama won the coin toss to go first, and Romney gets to go last. Doesn't it feel like Obama should have deferred to the last response? Is that even allowed? Actually, who am I kidding: as a Bears fan Obama probably is going to wait to get to the podium, look around confused, then call a time out.
9:04pm - Obama in the blue tie, Romney in red. I feel like if I was in this debate I'd wear the other guy's color just to screw with them. Economy starts with a question on jobs... and we're off. Romney is writing notes on Obama wishing Michele a happy 20th anniversary. One minute in and Obama is still setting up his answer. He ended up settling on setting up the paradigm that Romney thinks it's all about tax cuts, and whereas he described a diversified approach centered on education.
9:07pm - Romney hit well with joke about Obama spending his anniversary with him, then goes right into multiple stories from American people. Strong start by Romney, quickly describing a dichotomy between not only he and Obama, but quickly countering Obama's claim that his approach is top down. Still, after two minutes he didn't really get into any policy specifics. He did, however, hit Obama by claiming his approach is "trickle down" government. Did he just hit Reagan's legacy?
9:10pm - Obama counters by talking more about education. Seems dangerously close to pandering to the hall (at a University) rather than going for the viewers at home. He then transitions into talking about tax code, then energy. Obama's attempt seems to be to go after Romney on the tax issue while saying "I'm the authority on education and energy." First mention of the deficit tonight. First hit on Romney's tax plan from Obama.
9:12pm - Romney gives a rebuttal that says that high income people will not get a break under him... then uses Biden's terminology that the middle class is "crushed" twice. Anyone want to be that there will be a commercial showing Romney and Biden back to back saying the middle class is being "crushed" soon?
9:15pm - So Romney was asked to ask the president a question, then went on a multi-minute rant. He did say "by the way, I like coal." I want Obama to say "I love lamp" pretty bad here. At any rate, Romney went way long and didn't ask a question. It sounds to me like Romney is describing a tax plan that does little but shuffle the chips around at best: cut taxes, eliminate exemptions, deficit gone? Doesn't add up. Obama counters by saying that he did what he said he would: cut taxes for the middle class. Obama's going intellectual with his response, which makes him sound like Kerry/Gore ... not the contrast he wants.
9:18pm - Romney says that Obama is misrepresenting ... but doesn't explain how. Then he calls Obama a liar without saying it directly. Romney promises he will not under any circumstances raise taxes on middle income families. Obama comes right back at Romney saying he ran on a tax plan for eighteen months, and now is saying his "big bold idea is never mind." He then comes back with "it's math. It's arithmetic." I really get the feel, only eighteen minutes in, that these guys don't really like each other. Obama brings up Clinton first, and tells the American people he wants to go back to the tax rates that encouraged Clinton era growth.
9:22pm - Obama goes for a Trump joke that seems to miss. At the present time Romney doesn't look nearly as comfortable as Obama. Jim Lehr tries to get things back on track and Romney talks over him quite a bit. Romney hits Obama on his tax plan hurting small businesses more; he also mentions Bowls-Simpson first. Obama goes right back at the tax issue, speaking right to the American people.
9:25pm - Obama ties Romney's approach to Bush directly for the first time. He then directly ties his approach to Clinton. So there you have it: A third Bush term, or a fourth Clinton term. I'm glad we could simplify this. Lehr still has not gotten them off the first subject, he tries again, and Romney talks over it again. Romney keeps saying "that's not my plan" and then says his plan is not like anything that's been done before.
9:27pm - we finally move to the second segment, this one on the deficit. Romney articulates three options to cut the deficit. Romney than says that he likes Big Bird, but will stop the subsidy for PBS. Basically, he'll cut taxes to grow the economy, then cut programs. Obama's responds by going back to Bush and illustrating the state of the deficit and how it got here. A major strength here, and Obama gets on his wheel horse. I'm not sure how he can own an issue that he's struggled so much with, but he does. Obama does great explaining his balanced approach and then contrasting Romney as unbalanced.
9:32pm - Finally we get some back and forth ... might see the gloves come off a bit. Romney says that he has his own plan and it's not Simpson-Bowls, but that Obama should have grabbed on to Simpson Bowls. If I remember correctly the House shot that plan down. Romney slams taxes again "you raise taxes, you kill jobs." Obama looks annoyed, not a great thing for him. Romney states emphatically that he has ruled out increasing revenue entirely. Romney keeps talking over Lehr.
9:35pm - Obama now goes after the oil industry tax rates. I'm confused: what happened to the talk about the deficit. Use of Exon Mobile as a straw man by Obama here. Obama says he wants to do the same thing with closing loopholes that Romney says he wants to do, only he can actually say what he wants to do, not just that he will do it. Obama's first use of an "everyday American" story to four by Romney.
9:37pm - Twix break... mmmm..... Twix ....
9:39pm - Romney confronts Obama for lying a second time (again, without saying it directly). Obama is the first person to mention Reagan. We've moved on to Social Security. Obama goes to his grandmother to set up his argument. I'm shocked that Obama says "you don't need a major structural change to make sure social security is there for the future." Absolutely shocked.
9:43pm - Romney goes right after Obama on the Medicare cuts, saying he'd put the money right back in. Well, not exactly right after: he was on different chain of thinking then suddenly remembered he was supposed to be against "Obamacare" and switched course. Obama tries to get some footing by going after Romney's voucher program, but he stumbles out of the corner trying to establish this point. Obama then embraces the "Obamacare" term and illustrates why a repeal would increase cost on seniors.
9:48pm - Neither candidate has had an "ah ha" moment yet. I'd be inclined to say Romney is winning on logic, but Obama is winning in terms of presentation. Romney seems edgy and aggressive. In terms of speaking time Obama has opened a small lead over Romney. In other news, I kinda wish this was a foreign policy debate. I'm starting to think that I should start work on my NFL picks this week.
9:53pm - "Does anybody out there think that the problem we've had was due to too much regulation on wall street?" Obama scores there. Romney comes swinging back. I'm on to salt water taffy.
9:58pm - Moving to health care. First time we've heard the term Affordable Care Act. Romney opens up by talking about the cost of health care, then says that "Obamacare" is adding to cost. For the record, "Obamacare" hasn't had a negative impact on my company's bottom line. Interesting the Romney never smiles with his teeth. He just looks tight and uncomfortable.
10:00pm - Obama goes in to the positives of the ACA. Lehr is trying to hold the line, but failing. Can we send him out to pasture? I miss Tim Russert. Text in from my mother noting that Romney's been too aggressive. Obama looks much more comfortable on stage than Romney.
10:07pm - Romney blatantly lies about his "plan" by stating his plan covers pre-existing conditions and kids up to 26. He says these were already staples of the private market. If he thinks that he's out to lunch. He's also all but saying "death panel" repeatedly.
10:10pm - Obama goes through a number of things that Romney has promised tonight but outlines how he hasn't said anything about how he's going to do it. Romney barrels over Jim Lehr to get a response he didn't have the right to according to debate rules.
10:14pm - Jim Lehr has been pretty much worthless tonight. Now we are on to the role of government. Obama's first response is to keep American's safe and to create frameworks to help people to succeed. He then illustrates how past instances of the government investing have led to dividends.
10:17pm - Romney goes back to the constitution, thereby not answering the question. Obama continues to stretch out his time advantage. Now talking about student loans.
10:22pm - And here comes the blow on Romney's statement that people should just borrow from their parents to go to school. Obama's not scoring well on this topic, and Romney AGAIN calls Obama a liar without doing so directly. The lack of political acumen shocks me. Romney goes after the green energy campaigns again. It's amazing to me that he could be so short sighted on energy.
10:25pm - Getting close to the wrap up point, and Lehr did such a poor job that they missed an entire topic. He finishes up on partisan gridlock. Romney gives a pretty nondescript answer. Obama has a tougher standard with this question to hit. He responds that he will meet with anyone as long as the goal is helping further the opportunities of the American people. Obama manages to get a Bin Laden references in as well. He finishes up with nearly a minute advantage in speaking time, but it felt like Romney was the person refusing to stop talking most of the time tonight. Good job by Obama in that regard.
10:28pm - Obama stumbles out of the gate on his closing statement. He has had a hard time with transitions tonight. He didn't really go anwhere, but Romney goes right to the core and hits his talking points without any issue. A strong finish by Romney, who wanted to go last exactly for this reason.
Final Verdict: Romney did a great job staying on topic and Obama never took him out of his comfort zone. From a standpoint of actual academic topics the debate was nearly a draw, with perhaps a slight edge to Romney. Obama didn't really go after Romney much at all, nothing about any of the major attack points. Obama clearly looked more comfortable however, and if JFK v Nixon tells us anything, its that the person who looks more presidential sometimes takes a big advantage.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)