For a long time I have enjoyed going to the movies. I have gone, traditionally, at least once a month, and I generally see a wide variety of films. I like to be kept up to the minute on which films will be "Oscar contenders" and which films will fly under the radar, yet be worth owning when they come out on DVD. But something strange has happened in the past few months: much like updating this blog, I haven't had the time to go to the cinema. Life has gotten in the way. But, in the midst of my vacation, I was able to find my way into a nice, new Cinemark in Denton, Texas. The movie of choice was "The Book of Eli."
I wanted to see this movie because of Denzel Washington. I've always thought that Washington was a good actor who generally got himself typecast into these nice, neat roles without much range. As his career has progressed he began doing more movies which pressed the issue, none more successfully than "Training Day," which is a great watch. "Eli" seemed to be in a similar mold; ten years ago I would have had a hard time envisioning Denzel in a futuristic, apocalypse tale. Yet here he was, and I settled in to evaluate the show.
Washington, for his part, does well in this movie. Stylistically he often allows his looks, mixed with the grave surroundings, to convey the depth of the situation. His dialogue, early on, is almost nonexistent, and even once he begins to talk he says very little. Not a great deal is disclosed about how the world became the way it is, but leaving it to the imagination was exceptionally effective in this regard. And, once the fighting begins, Washington's trainings in the martial arts really showed.
The supporting cast, featuring Gary Oldman as the villain and Mila Kunis as the young Solara, did a serviceable job. Oldman succeeds in making you want to go after him, while Kunis continues to spread her wings and grow from her past role in "That 70s Show." As Kunis builds her relationship with Washington, and Oldman and his gangs chase them, a strict dichotomy emerges between good and evil.
Ultimately, the movie presents as your typical post-apocalyptic action flick, but it ends up delivering much more. The movie carries on at a great pace, and surprises you many times with its twists and turns. It's ending leaves much to be thought about, and if you are one to contemplate things in a big picture way then this movie is one you will enjoy.
FROM MY POINT OF VIEW: 3 1/2 out of 5
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
NFL - Divisional Round Picks
Oh and four. Just think about that. I've been picking NFL playoff games for over a decade now, and I've never gone 0-4 picking games in the NFL playoff. So, how did it happen? What did I learn?
Glad you asked:
- I was right about two road teams winning, but wrong about which teams it would be
- The Cards continue to beat me up, as I have now picked against them five straight playoff games, and they have proven me wrong four times
- The Cowboys may be really good
- You still need to run the ball to win in the playoffs
That last point was driven home in three of the four games. So, without as much detail as last week, here are this weeks picks.
Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints
One thing I am sure of is that this will be a high scoring game, with lots of passing. The Saints finished the year losing their last three games, but it's tradition now to pick against the Cards in the playoffs. You're welcome Arizona fans (all three of you):
Saints 40 - Cardinals 32
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts
Three times this decade the Colts were the number one seed and rested their starters. Three times they lost their first game. They will be rusty, and Baltimore has a defense to help them get up early, and a running game to put the Colts away. But in a year that I went 0-4 in the first round, I just don't feel the good fortune of a Colts loss. In fact, this feels like the Ravens holding on to a 6 point lead, giving Manning the ball with 2 minutes left, and then watching him win the game, succeeding where he has failed so many times before. Man, I hate the Colts. Here's to hoping I get this one wrong:
Colts 24 - Ravens 23
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings
I will be in Dallas for this game; the team, of course, will be in Minnesota. I can see this game going either way. If the Minnesota offensive line can't contain the Dallas front seven any better than Philly did last week this may not be much of a game. Still, Minnesota can run, which is something Philly clearly could not do. In another matchup of uninspiring coaches, I see this game coming down to who is more mistake prone. Sadly, it's Minnesota, with Favre's penchant for throwing when he shouldn't, and Peterson's habit of fumbling. I'd really rather both these teams lose:
Cowboys 34 - ViQueens 30
New York Jets at San Diego Chargers
The Jets D is scary good against the pass, and the Chargers offense is scary bad when running. Not a good matchup on paper. But again and again I come back to the Chargers as the most logical team to win it all. I hope I'm not jinxing them:
Chargers 27 - Jets 13
Glad you asked:
- I was right about two road teams winning, but wrong about which teams it would be
- The Cards continue to beat me up, as I have now picked against them five straight playoff games, and they have proven me wrong four times
- The Cowboys may be really good
- You still need to run the ball to win in the playoffs
That last point was driven home in three of the four games. So, without as much detail as last week, here are this weeks picks.
Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints
One thing I am sure of is that this will be a high scoring game, with lots of passing. The Saints finished the year losing their last three games, but it's tradition now to pick against the Cards in the playoffs. You're welcome Arizona fans (all three of you):
Saints 40 - Cardinals 32
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts
Three times this decade the Colts were the number one seed and rested their starters. Three times they lost their first game. They will be rusty, and Baltimore has a defense to help them get up early, and a running game to put the Colts away. But in a year that I went 0-4 in the first round, I just don't feel the good fortune of a Colts loss. In fact, this feels like the Ravens holding on to a 6 point lead, giving Manning the ball with 2 minutes left, and then watching him win the game, succeeding where he has failed so many times before. Man, I hate the Colts. Here's to hoping I get this one wrong:
Colts 24 - Ravens 23
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings
I will be in Dallas for this game; the team, of course, will be in Minnesota. I can see this game going either way. If the Minnesota offensive line can't contain the Dallas front seven any better than Philly did last week this may not be much of a game. Still, Minnesota can run, which is something Philly clearly could not do. In another matchup of uninspiring coaches, I see this game coming down to who is more mistake prone. Sadly, it's Minnesota, with Favre's penchant for throwing when he shouldn't, and Peterson's habit of fumbling. I'd really rather both these teams lose:
Cowboys 34 - ViQueens 30
New York Jets at San Diego Chargers
The Jets D is scary good against the pass, and the Chargers offense is scary bad when running. Not a good matchup on paper. But again and again I come back to the Chargers as the most logical team to win it all. I hope I'm not jinxing them:
Chargers 27 - Jets 13
Friday, January 8, 2010
Life is busy ...
... but not too busy for my epic comeback into the world of blogging! What could possibly bring me back to this forum, ending my impromptu retirement (which, by the way, was brought on by large quantities of work)? Well, of course it has to be the NFL playoffs.
I didn't do spectacular with my preseason picks this year (R.I.P. Bears, because not only did you fail to make the playoffs, but by bringing back Lovie Smith's catatonic body you may officially be dead to me), but I also didn't do awful ... I think. Let's review my playoff predictions at the start of the year:
"So, for the playoffs, we have in order of seed:
AFC: New England, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Indianapolis, Baltimore and Houston.
NFC: Chicago, Philadelphia, New Orleans, San Francisco, Green Bay, New York"
So, how did I do? Well, lets just say I could have done better. In the AFC I was right about three of four divisional champions, missing on Pittsburgh (but then again, who didn't?). I was right about Baltimore as an AFC Wild Card team, and just missed on Houston (thanks for laying down Cincinnati...). So, in the long hall I was four for six in the AFC, missing on Pittsburgh and Houston, who were, instead, Cincinnati and the New York Jets. Not bad.
I didn't do nearly as well in the NFC, as I swung and missed big time on the Bears. My long debate at the start of the year between Chicago, Green Bay and Minnesota was resolved incorrectly, as Favre stayed healthy, and Cutler was possessed by the soul of Rex Grossman. Or something along those lines.
Anywho, I was correct about only one division winner in the NFC (New Orleans baby!), and one Wild Card team (Green Bay). I also was correct in stating that Philadelphia would make the playoffs, although their week 17 collapse kept me from being correct about not only their winning their division, but also their seed in the playoffs. I missed on San Francisco, Chicago, and the New York Giants.
So, on the whole, not awful. In a league where over half the teams which make the playoffs usually have missed it the year before my seven for twelve isn't all that bad. Now, on to the Wild Card Round:
NY JETS at CINCINNATI BENGALS
This game is not only tough to decipher (I could legitimately see it going either way), but it also is as boring a matchup as I can imagine. Seriously, who cares about this game? I know I don't. And I can't imagine you do either. Still, it has to be played, so here are a few things to consider:
-Mark Sanchez, a rookie QB who had a passer rating around 63, who threw many more INTs that TDs this year, is leading his team ON THE ROAD against a pretty tough defense.
- The Bengals have dealt with loss all year (from defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer's wife, to Chris Henry) and everyone seems to think they are going to be a one and done after last weeks lay down effort against the Jets.
- Both teams can run the ball with some semblance of effectiveness.
- Both teams have defenses in the top third of the NFL (although the Jets run defense isn't as good as it was at the start of the year with Kris Jenkins out).
So, what does it all mean? It means this game will probably be a good one to avoid watching. It means if you have to bet on this game, then take the Bengals minus the points, as the line has continued to shift towards the Jets. And it means that the Bengals will win, because they will stack the line and make Mark Sanchez beat them. Here's a hint: he won't.
FINAL SCORE: Cincinnati 23 - NY Jets 13
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at DALLAS COWBOYS
This game looks like it should be a shoot out. I'm still not sure what to make about the Eagles laying a huge egg in week 17. It's not like they had nothing to play for; if they had won they would have been the 2 seed and gotten a bye week. Still, one game does not a season make, and this game will most likely not be a repeat of week 17's yawner.
In this game we have two troubled QBs (Romo and McNabb, both of whom are frowned upon by their own fan base for various reasons), with young, dynamic WRs (Miles Austin and DeSean Jackson) and able pass catching TEs (Jason Witten and Bret Celek). Both teams can rush the passer, although Dallas is better at it right now. Both teams feature defenses that can be thrown on. Both teams have coaches (Wade Phillips and Andy Reid) who struggle to manage the clock, time outs, or ... well, anything. The biggest difference between these two teams? The Eagles cannot run the ball to save their lives (trust me, I had Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy on various fantasy teams this year), while the Cowboys have a variety of backs who are capable of picking up yardage. Furthermore, Dallas won both of the matchups between these teams this year.
So, pick Dallas, right? As easy as this seems, it was only last week that everyone was on the Eagles bandwagon as a Super Bowl contender. I don't think this team fades that easily. They are dangerous, even without the run, because they can throw the ball down field. They can't control the clock to save their lives (and, even if they could, Andy Reid wouldn't know how to manage it), but I'm not sure they'll have to. I like Philly here; certainly to cover the spread, but also to win the game. Oh, and let's just say I also like the over on points...
FINAL SCORE: Philadelphia 38 - Dallas 31
BALTIMORE RAVENS at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
This game, much like the Dallas - Philadelphia game, has a number of wrinkles to it. So let's break it down, position by position:
- QB: This is a no contest; Brady is still the winningest active QB in the NFL, he still has the aura around him, and this year, for the first time in quite some time, he has something to prove. Joe Flacco, on the other hand, has an exceptionally strong arm, but as the year went on Baltimore seemed to neuter him, holding him back more and more.
- RB: Another no contest, although not quite as definitively as it may look upon first glance. With Ray Rice, Willis McGahee and Le'Ron McClain in the backfield, Baltimore is clearly has the superior stable of running backs. That said, New England always seems to find a way to mix and match its collection of backs for optimal production. Sammy Morris, Laurence Maroney, Fred Taylor and Kevin Faulk may not stand alone against Ray Rice, but they don't have to. Baltimore wins the nod here, but it's not as lopsided as some may lead you to believe.
- WR: This was a no contest in favor of the Pats until Wes Welker went down week 17 with a bunch of torn ligaments in his knee. Now, it's closer to a draw, but Moss is still better (when motivated) than the solid veteran Derrick Mason, and Julian Edelman has done a solid Welker impersonation a few times this year. This area gives a slight advantage to the Patriots.
- TE: Todd Heap is slightly better than Ben Watson. Thus, the Ravens are slightly better than the Pats.
- OL: It depends on if the Ravens left tackle is healthy and stays in the game. If he does, the advantage goes to a Baltimore team that has the luxury of playing Michael Oher on the right side. If he's not, it moves to a draw.
- Defenses: Neither defense is what it used to be, but both still have their moments. The Ravens have more big name players, but the Pats were sneaky good this year. In that regard, it's a draw.
- Special Teams: the Patriots have the much more experienced, much better kicker. 'Nuff said.
- Coaches: I still believe in Belichick.
So, it all adds up to a game that should be close, should be interesting, and could go either way.
FINAL SCORE: New England 27 - Baltimore 19
GREEN BAY PACKERS at ARIZONA CARDINALS
Really, the most important factor of this game is that I picked against the Cardinals four times in last year's playoffs and only one the Super Bowl. This game should be a shoot out, with two high powered passing offenses. But, simply put, I think Green Bay is rolling, and is more than capable of putting up points to match Arizona, but they are also a better defensive team, and a better running team. If it's close Arizona has the more reliable kicker (although he is hurt), but I'm not sure it will be that close.
FINAL SCORE: Green Bay 34 - Arizona 24
I didn't do spectacular with my preseason picks this year (R.I.P. Bears, because not only did you fail to make the playoffs, but by bringing back Lovie Smith's catatonic body you may officially be dead to me), but I also didn't do awful ... I think. Let's review my playoff predictions at the start of the year:
"So, for the playoffs, we have in order of seed:
AFC: New England, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Indianapolis, Baltimore and Houston.
NFC: Chicago, Philadelphia, New Orleans, San Francisco, Green Bay, New York"
So, how did I do? Well, lets just say I could have done better. In the AFC I was right about three of four divisional champions, missing on Pittsburgh (but then again, who didn't?). I was right about Baltimore as an AFC Wild Card team, and just missed on Houston (thanks for laying down Cincinnati...). So, in the long hall I was four for six in the AFC, missing on Pittsburgh and Houston, who were, instead, Cincinnati and the New York Jets. Not bad.
I didn't do nearly as well in the NFC, as I swung and missed big time on the Bears. My long debate at the start of the year between Chicago, Green Bay and Minnesota was resolved incorrectly, as Favre stayed healthy, and Cutler was possessed by the soul of Rex Grossman. Or something along those lines.
Anywho, I was correct about only one division winner in the NFC (New Orleans baby!), and one Wild Card team (Green Bay). I also was correct in stating that Philadelphia would make the playoffs, although their week 17 collapse kept me from being correct about not only their winning their division, but also their seed in the playoffs. I missed on San Francisco, Chicago, and the New York Giants.
So, on the whole, not awful. In a league where over half the teams which make the playoffs usually have missed it the year before my seven for twelve isn't all that bad. Now, on to the Wild Card Round:
NY JETS at CINCINNATI BENGALS
This game is not only tough to decipher (I could legitimately see it going either way), but it also is as boring a matchup as I can imagine. Seriously, who cares about this game? I know I don't. And I can't imagine you do either. Still, it has to be played, so here are a few things to consider:
-Mark Sanchez, a rookie QB who had a passer rating around 63, who threw many more INTs that TDs this year, is leading his team ON THE ROAD against a pretty tough defense.
- The Bengals have dealt with loss all year (from defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer's wife, to Chris Henry) and everyone seems to think they are going to be a one and done after last weeks lay down effort against the Jets.
- Both teams can run the ball with some semblance of effectiveness.
- Both teams have defenses in the top third of the NFL (although the Jets run defense isn't as good as it was at the start of the year with Kris Jenkins out).
So, what does it all mean? It means this game will probably be a good one to avoid watching. It means if you have to bet on this game, then take the Bengals minus the points, as the line has continued to shift towards the Jets. And it means that the Bengals will win, because they will stack the line and make Mark Sanchez beat them. Here's a hint: he won't.
FINAL SCORE: Cincinnati 23 - NY Jets 13
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at DALLAS COWBOYS
This game looks like it should be a shoot out. I'm still not sure what to make about the Eagles laying a huge egg in week 17. It's not like they had nothing to play for; if they had won they would have been the 2 seed and gotten a bye week. Still, one game does not a season make, and this game will most likely not be a repeat of week 17's yawner.
In this game we have two troubled QBs (Romo and McNabb, both of whom are frowned upon by their own fan base for various reasons), with young, dynamic WRs (Miles Austin and DeSean Jackson) and able pass catching TEs (Jason Witten and Bret Celek). Both teams can rush the passer, although Dallas is better at it right now. Both teams feature defenses that can be thrown on. Both teams have coaches (Wade Phillips and Andy Reid) who struggle to manage the clock, time outs, or ... well, anything. The biggest difference between these two teams? The Eagles cannot run the ball to save their lives (trust me, I had Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy on various fantasy teams this year), while the Cowboys have a variety of backs who are capable of picking up yardage. Furthermore, Dallas won both of the matchups between these teams this year.
So, pick Dallas, right? As easy as this seems, it was only last week that everyone was on the Eagles bandwagon as a Super Bowl contender. I don't think this team fades that easily. They are dangerous, even without the run, because they can throw the ball down field. They can't control the clock to save their lives (and, even if they could, Andy Reid wouldn't know how to manage it), but I'm not sure they'll have to. I like Philly here; certainly to cover the spread, but also to win the game. Oh, and let's just say I also like the over on points...
FINAL SCORE: Philadelphia 38 - Dallas 31
BALTIMORE RAVENS at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
This game, much like the Dallas - Philadelphia game, has a number of wrinkles to it. So let's break it down, position by position:
- QB: This is a no contest; Brady is still the winningest active QB in the NFL, he still has the aura around him, and this year, for the first time in quite some time, he has something to prove. Joe Flacco, on the other hand, has an exceptionally strong arm, but as the year went on Baltimore seemed to neuter him, holding him back more and more.
- RB: Another no contest, although not quite as definitively as it may look upon first glance. With Ray Rice, Willis McGahee and Le'Ron McClain in the backfield, Baltimore is clearly has the superior stable of running backs. That said, New England always seems to find a way to mix and match its collection of backs for optimal production. Sammy Morris, Laurence Maroney, Fred Taylor and Kevin Faulk may not stand alone against Ray Rice, but they don't have to. Baltimore wins the nod here, but it's not as lopsided as some may lead you to believe.
- WR: This was a no contest in favor of the Pats until Wes Welker went down week 17 with a bunch of torn ligaments in his knee. Now, it's closer to a draw, but Moss is still better (when motivated) than the solid veteran Derrick Mason, and Julian Edelman has done a solid Welker impersonation a few times this year. This area gives a slight advantage to the Patriots.
- TE: Todd Heap is slightly better than Ben Watson. Thus, the Ravens are slightly better than the Pats.
- OL: It depends on if the Ravens left tackle is healthy and stays in the game. If he does, the advantage goes to a Baltimore team that has the luxury of playing Michael Oher on the right side. If he's not, it moves to a draw.
- Defenses: Neither defense is what it used to be, but both still have their moments. The Ravens have more big name players, but the Pats were sneaky good this year. In that regard, it's a draw.
- Special Teams: the Patriots have the much more experienced, much better kicker. 'Nuff said.
- Coaches: I still believe in Belichick.
So, it all adds up to a game that should be close, should be interesting, and could go either way.
FINAL SCORE: New England 27 - Baltimore 19
GREEN BAY PACKERS at ARIZONA CARDINALS
Really, the most important factor of this game is that I picked against the Cardinals four times in last year's playoffs and only one the Super Bowl. This game should be a shoot out, with two high powered passing offenses. But, simply put, I think Green Bay is rolling, and is more than capable of putting up points to match Arizona, but they are also a better defensive team, and a better running team. If it's close Arizona has the more reliable kicker (although he is hurt), but I'm not sure it will be that close.
FINAL SCORE: Green Bay 34 - Arizona 24
Friday, November 13, 2009
NFL: The Midseason Report
Wow! It's been nearly two months (two months tomorrow, in fact) since I posted here. Let's just say that I've been really busy, and life has gotten in the way. But let's also say that I'll try to do better. We are at the half way point of the NFL season, so it seems like a good time to see how absolutely awful my preseason NFL picks were. So what we'll do is look at my predictions for how the divisions would finish on September 1st, and then see where they are today. Then I'll do some revisionist history, and tell you where I went wrong, and how I see it playing out now. Also, just a reminder that it's not good to make outlandish statements after one week of the NFL season, particularly when you only get to watch a game or two. Without any further ado, here we go:
AFC EAST:
Then: New England (13-3), Miami (9-7), Buffalo (8-8), NY Jets (6-10)
Now: New England (6-2), NY Jets (4-4), Miami (3-5), Buffalo (3-5)
Comments: Not a bad start for me, as New England clearly seems to be the class of the division, and I could easily see Miami finishing second in this division. I wrote back in September that if the Jets were lucky they'd get a Mirer level rookie year from Sanchez, and that seems to be about right. I was wrong about Buffalo, and if nothing else has been driven into my soul about the NFL this year it is this: if you don't have an offensive line, your team is going to suck. Somehow Buffalo is still 3-5, but they are really kind of bad. Thus far I'll take this division as a win.
NEW PREDICTION: New England (12-4), Miami (8-8), NY Jets (7-9) Buffalo (5-11)
AFC North:
Then: Pittsburgh (12-4), Baltimore (11-5), Cincinnati (7-9), Cleveland (5-11)
Now: Pittsburgh (6-2), Cincinnati (6-2), Baltimore (4-4), Cleveland (1-7)
Comments: Ok, so I cheated and put Pittsburgh in 1st place now, even though Cincinnati actually beat them and is in first. But Pittsburgh is going to win this weekend, and that will be that, so they will be in first place. I promise. Beyond that, this division doesn't look too far off. Baltimore's defense got really old overnight, and I wasn't thinking that would happen, so that explains my being off there a bit. I wrote of Cincinnati at the time that "(t)he Bengals might be on the right track, but until I see Carson Palmer healthy again, and until I see that Chad Ochocinco isn't finished, and until I see that Cedric Benson is anything other than a punk ... well, let's just say there are a ton of questions here, including an extremely incompetent owner." That's great analysis if you ask me. By the way, it just so happens that Palmer is healthy, Ocho isn't finished, and Ced Benson is still a punk ... but an extremely talented punk who actually can run the ball. They still have an incompetent owner, but the pieces have begun to gel together. Still, after Pittsburgh beats them this week (come on Steelers!) they will be relegated to Wild Card status. Which is still impressive. Baltimore might be able to make a bit of a run, but they won't be contenders like they were last year. Cleveland? Turns out I thought they were way too good by estimating five wins, or that Mangini was even mediocre. They are really bad; so bad that when the Bears beat them 30-6 nobody was excited because they knew it should have been sixty to six.
NEW PREDICTION: Pittsburgh (12-4), Cincinnati (10-6), Baltimore (9-7), Cleveland (2-14)
AFC SOUTH:
Then: Indianapolis (10-6), Houston (9-7), Tennessee (9-7), Jacksonville (8-8)
Now: Indianapolis (8-0), Houston (5-4), Jacksonville (4-4), Tennessee (2-6)
Comments: Boy did I almost nail this one right on the head. In fact, after Indy fades in the 2nd half (which I think is almost assuredly going to happen due to their injuries) it will make it look even better. My logic was around the table sound, and I could see the Titans going on a 9-1 or 8-2 run from their 0-6 start, making 9-7 a distinct possibility. If Houston could have taken advantage of Indy trying to hand them that game last week then I would have been on cloud 9 here. Still, let's say Indy continues to win games they shouldn't ... this will play out like this:
NEW PREDICTION: Indianapolis (13-3)*, Houston (9-7), Jacksonville (8-8), Tennessee (7-9)
*Let's just say that if I was a gambling man I'd be foaming at the mouth thinking about betting against Indianapolis in the playoffs this year. Their entire D is banged up, they have no running game, and a ton of inexperience in the passing game. And I'll admit it: Peyton Manning has jumped into the pantheon level of QBs, and he is good enough to carry a team. But this team is really bad other than him, Freeney, Wayne and Clark. And four top players isn't enough in the NFL.
AFC West:
Then: San Diego (11-5), Kansas City (7-9), Denver (7-9), Oakland (5-11)
Now: Denver (6-2), San Diego (5-3), Oakland (2-6), Kansas City (1-7)
Comments: Here is my first big "swing and a miss," at least at first glance. The AFC West has taught me a number of things. First, having talent around you and competent people coaching you is more important that being a great QB. For exhibit A, look at Kyle Orton. For exhibit B, look at Matt Cassel. I had both KC and Denver at 7-9 based on their QB for the most part. Cassell looked like the better bet heading into the year, even as I was saying that "Orton isn't a superstar, but he'll be efficient for Denver." But KC has almost no talent around Cassel, and Denver is loaded with talent on offense. My huge miss on KC aside, I was pretty close, and think it'll shake out this way:
NEW PREDICTION: San Diego (11-5), Denver (10-6), KC (3-13), Oakland (3-13)
NFC East:
Then: Philadelphia (12-4), NY Giants (10-6), Dallas (8-8), Washington (6-10)
Now: Dallas (6-2), Philadelphia (5-3), NY Giants (5-4), Washington (2-6)
Comments: I totally underestimated how much of an improvement jettisoning T.O. would make. Romo looks free, Miles Austin came out of semi-nowhere to become the next big thing, and they managed to play coaching Russian Roulette with Wade Phillips and Andy Reid and watched Andy be the one who wet himself first. The Giants are who I thought they were, so that's nice at least. Honestly, the Eagles aren't far behind what I thought they were, so that's not too bad. Washington is even worse. The question comes down to this: do I think Dallas will choke now, or in the playoffs? Umm....
NEW PREDICTION: Dallas (11-5), Philadelphia (11-5), NY Giants (10-6), Washington (3-13)
NFC North:
Then: Chicago (13-3), Green Bay (11-5), Minnesota (9-7), Detroit (3-13)
Now: **sigh** Minnesota (7-1), Green Bay (4-4), The 2nd Greatest Franchise In NFL History Who Can't Seem To Have The Fortitutde To Fire The Entire Worthless Management Staff (4-5), Detroit (1-7)
Comments: The sports Gods hate me. I'll write an entire post about the stupid Bears sometime soon. Other than that, all that is relevant is to say that I underestimated how much having a competent QB would improve the Vikqueens.
NEW PREDICTION: Minnesota (12-4), Green Bay (8-8), Lovie's Catatonic Corpse (6-10), Detroit (3-13)
NFC South:
Then: New Orleans (11-5), Atlanta (10-6), Carolina (8-8), Tampa Bay (5-11)
Now: New Orleans (8-0), Atlanta (5-3), Carolina (3-5), Tampa Bay (1-7)
Comments: Boy, that looks pretty good, doesn't it? My logic seems to have been sound, and so there really isn't too much to say, except that the Saints look even better than I thought they would be. I had the Falcons missing the Wild Card back in early September back when I thought that the NFC North was going to give Brett Favre a fight; now that it's apparent nobody wants to get in the way of his comeback tour ... let's just say I have second thoughts.
NEW PREDICTION: New Orleans (14-2), Atlanta (10-6), Carolina (7-9), Tampa Bay (3-13)
NFC West:
Then: San Fransisco (9-7), Seattle (7-9), Arizona (7-9), St. Louis (5-11)
Now: Arizona (5-3), San Fransisco (4-5), Seattle (3-5), St. Louis (1-7)
Comments: The Cards have shown more resilience than I expected, but the division is just as boring as I envisioned. Congrats to Mike Singletary on the ugliest win I've ever heard of last night. That's all.
NEW PREDICTION: Arizona (9-7), San Fransisco (8-8), Seattle (7-9), St. Louis (2-14)
As for the playoffs, I had the following teams in at that time, in order from top seed to bottom seed:
AFC: New England, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Indianapolis, Baltimore and Houston.
NFC: Chicago, Philadelphia, New Orleans, San Francisco, Green Bay, New York
If I had to redo that now it would look like this:
AFC: Indianapolis, New England, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Cincinnati, Denver
NFC: New Orleans, Minnesota, Dallas, Arizona, Philadelphia, Atlanta
Rather than do match-ups, let's just say that I feel strongly that Indy would lose to New England, Pittsburgh for sure, San Diego probably, and Cincinnati possibly. They will most likely be the top seed, but I don't see it working out for them. I'm still saying the AFC champs will be the Pats, with the runner up being Pittsburgh. If it plays out with the seeds I've predicted here, the winner of the round two game with New England hosting Pittsburgh will be your AFC champion.
As for the NFC, it appears to go through a dome or a warm weather city. Talk about taking a step towards flag football. That said, it's got to be either New Orleans or Minnesota, and right now my pick would be New Orleans; barring an injury to Brees they seem to be unstoppable. So, at the midway point, my prediction would be:
NEW ENGLAND 38 - NEW ORLEANS 35
The exciting thing? We get to see Pats-Colts this weekend (I'll take the Pats +3), and the Pats-Saints in a few weeks. Even with the Bears failing to show up this year, it's still got potential to be a great NFL season.
AFC EAST:
Then: New England (13-3), Miami (9-7), Buffalo (8-8), NY Jets (6-10)
Now: New England (6-2), NY Jets (4-4), Miami (3-5), Buffalo (3-5)
Comments: Not a bad start for me, as New England clearly seems to be the class of the division, and I could easily see Miami finishing second in this division. I wrote back in September that if the Jets were lucky they'd get a Mirer level rookie year from Sanchez, and that seems to be about right. I was wrong about Buffalo, and if nothing else has been driven into my soul about the NFL this year it is this: if you don't have an offensive line, your team is going to suck. Somehow Buffalo is still 3-5, but they are really kind of bad. Thus far I'll take this division as a win.
NEW PREDICTION: New England (12-4), Miami (8-8), NY Jets (7-9) Buffalo (5-11)
AFC North:
Then: Pittsburgh (12-4), Baltimore (11-5), Cincinnati (7-9), Cleveland (5-11)
Now: Pittsburgh (6-2), Cincinnati (6-2), Baltimore (4-4), Cleveland (1-7)
Comments: Ok, so I cheated and put Pittsburgh in 1st place now, even though Cincinnati actually beat them and is in first. But Pittsburgh is going to win this weekend, and that will be that, so they will be in first place. I promise. Beyond that, this division doesn't look too far off. Baltimore's defense got really old overnight, and I wasn't thinking that would happen, so that explains my being off there a bit. I wrote of Cincinnati at the time that "(t)he Bengals might be on the right track, but until I see Carson Palmer healthy again, and until I see that Chad Ochocinco isn't finished, and until I see that Cedric Benson is anything other than a punk ... well, let's just say there are a ton of questions here, including an extremely incompetent owner." That's great analysis if you ask me. By the way, it just so happens that Palmer is healthy, Ocho isn't finished, and Ced Benson is still a punk ... but an extremely talented punk who actually can run the ball. They still have an incompetent owner, but the pieces have begun to gel together. Still, after Pittsburgh beats them this week (come on Steelers!) they will be relegated to Wild Card status. Which is still impressive. Baltimore might be able to make a bit of a run, but they won't be contenders like they were last year. Cleveland? Turns out I thought they were way too good by estimating five wins, or that Mangini was even mediocre. They are really bad; so bad that when the Bears beat them 30-6 nobody was excited because they knew it should have been sixty to six.
NEW PREDICTION: Pittsburgh (12-4), Cincinnati (10-6), Baltimore (9-7), Cleveland (2-14)
AFC SOUTH:
Then: Indianapolis (10-6), Houston (9-7), Tennessee (9-7), Jacksonville (8-8)
Now: Indianapolis (8-0), Houston (5-4), Jacksonville (4-4), Tennessee (2-6)
Comments: Boy did I almost nail this one right on the head. In fact, after Indy fades in the 2nd half (which I think is almost assuredly going to happen due to their injuries) it will make it look even better. My logic was around the table sound, and I could see the Titans going on a 9-1 or 8-2 run from their 0-6 start, making 9-7 a distinct possibility. If Houston could have taken advantage of Indy trying to hand them that game last week then I would have been on cloud 9 here. Still, let's say Indy continues to win games they shouldn't ... this will play out like this:
NEW PREDICTION: Indianapolis (13-3)*, Houston (9-7), Jacksonville (8-8), Tennessee (7-9)
*Let's just say that if I was a gambling man I'd be foaming at the mouth thinking about betting against Indianapolis in the playoffs this year. Their entire D is banged up, they have no running game, and a ton of inexperience in the passing game. And I'll admit it: Peyton Manning has jumped into the pantheon level of QBs, and he is good enough to carry a team. But this team is really bad other than him, Freeney, Wayne and Clark. And four top players isn't enough in the NFL.
AFC West:
Then: San Diego (11-5), Kansas City (7-9), Denver (7-9), Oakland (5-11)
Now: Denver (6-2), San Diego (5-3), Oakland (2-6), Kansas City (1-7)
Comments: Here is my first big "swing and a miss," at least at first glance. The AFC West has taught me a number of things. First, having talent around you and competent people coaching you is more important that being a great QB. For exhibit A, look at Kyle Orton. For exhibit B, look at Matt Cassel. I had both KC and Denver at 7-9 based on their QB for the most part. Cassell looked like the better bet heading into the year, even as I was saying that "Orton isn't a superstar, but he'll be efficient for Denver." But KC has almost no talent around Cassel, and Denver is loaded with talent on offense. My huge miss on KC aside, I was pretty close, and think it'll shake out this way:
NEW PREDICTION: San Diego (11-5), Denver (10-6), KC (3-13), Oakland (3-13)
NFC East:
Then: Philadelphia (12-4), NY Giants (10-6), Dallas (8-8), Washington (6-10)
Now: Dallas (6-2), Philadelphia (5-3), NY Giants (5-4), Washington (2-6)
Comments: I totally underestimated how much of an improvement jettisoning T.O. would make. Romo looks free, Miles Austin came out of semi-nowhere to become the next big thing, and they managed to play coaching Russian Roulette with Wade Phillips and Andy Reid and watched Andy be the one who wet himself first. The Giants are who I thought they were, so that's nice at least. Honestly, the Eagles aren't far behind what I thought they were, so that's not too bad. Washington is even worse. The question comes down to this: do I think Dallas will choke now, or in the playoffs? Umm....
NEW PREDICTION: Dallas (11-5), Philadelphia (11-5), NY Giants (10-6), Washington (3-13)
NFC North:
Then: Chicago (13-3), Green Bay (11-5), Minnesota (9-7), Detroit (3-13)
Now: **sigh** Minnesota (7-1), Green Bay (4-4), The 2nd Greatest Franchise In NFL History Who Can't Seem To Have The Fortitutde To Fire The Entire Worthless Management Staff (4-5), Detroit (1-7)
Comments: The sports Gods hate me. I'll write an entire post about the stupid Bears sometime soon. Other than that, all that is relevant is to say that I underestimated how much having a competent QB would improve the Vikqueens.
NEW PREDICTION: Minnesota (12-4), Green Bay (8-8), Lovie's Catatonic Corpse (6-10), Detroit (3-13)
NFC South:
Then: New Orleans (11-5), Atlanta (10-6), Carolina (8-8), Tampa Bay (5-11)
Now: New Orleans (8-0), Atlanta (5-3), Carolina (3-5), Tampa Bay (1-7)
Comments: Boy, that looks pretty good, doesn't it? My logic seems to have been sound, and so there really isn't too much to say, except that the Saints look even better than I thought they would be. I had the Falcons missing the Wild Card back in early September back when I thought that the NFC North was going to give Brett Favre a fight; now that it's apparent nobody wants to get in the way of his comeback tour ... let's just say I have second thoughts.
NEW PREDICTION: New Orleans (14-2), Atlanta (10-6), Carolina (7-9), Tampa Bay (3-13)
NFC West:
Then: San Fransisco (9-7), Seattle (7-9), Arizona (7-9), St. Louis (5-11)
Now: Arizona (5-3), San Fransisco (4-5), Seattle (3-5), St. Louis (1-7)
Comments: The Cards have shown more resilience than I expected, but the division is just as boring as I envisioned. Congrats to Mike Singletary on the ugliest win I've ever heard of last night. That's all.
NEW PREDICTION: Arizona (9-7), San Fransisco (8-8), Seattle (7-9), St. Louis (2-14)
As for the playoffs, I had the following teams in at that time, in order from top seed to bottom seed:
AFC: New England, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Indianapolis, Baltimore and Houston.
NFC: Chicago, Philadelphia, New Orleans, San Francisco, Green Bay, New York
If I had to redo that now it would look like this:
AFC: Indianapolis, New England, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Cincinnati, Denver
NFC: New Orleans, Minnesota, Dallas, Arizona, Philadelphia, Atlanta
Rather than do match-ups, let's just say that I feel strongly that Indy would lose to New England, Pittsburgh for sure, San Diego probably, and Cincinnati possibly. They will most likely be the top seed, but I don't see it working out for them. I'm still saying the AFC champs will be the Pats, with the runner up being Pittsburgh. If it plays out with the seeds I've predicted here, the winner of the round two game with New England hosting Pittsburgh will be your AFC champion.
As for the NFC, it appears to go through a dome or a warm weather city. Talk about taking a step towards flag football. That said, it's got to be either New Orleans or Minnesota, and right now my pick would be New Orleans; barring an injury to Brees they seem to be unstoppable. So, at the midway point, my prediction would be:
NEW ENGLAND 38 - NEW ORLEANS 35
The exciting thing? We get to see Pats-Colts this weekend (I'll take the Pats +3), and the Pats-Saints in a few weeks. Even with the Bears failing to show up this year, it's still got potential to be a great NFL season.
Monday, September 14, 2009
NFL - Opening Weekend Quick Hits
Boy it didn't take long to make my Super Bowl prediction look highly unlikely did it? ...
- With today's news that MLB Brian Urlacher will miss the rest of the season after dislocating his wrist, as well as with the other injuries suffered by our defense (most notably Pisa Tinoisamoa), it's hard to see things ending nearly as well as they could have this year. The team was up to all of the typical Lovie brain farts: faking a punt on 4th and 11 deep in their own territory (which, all things considered, might be the defining dumb moment of Lovie's tenure), calling for a screen pass inside the ten yard line, challenging your own stupid call on the fake punt (which wasted another time out)... the list goes on and on.
The single most infuriating thing about the game was watching Lovie once again sit there like Forrest Gump, seemingly not even caring that his season was going up in flames all around him. He stood there, watching Culter pretend to be Rex Grossman, watching his receivers not finish running their routes, watching his long snapper call for a fake punt audible ... he stood there and didn't even move. I don't need him to throw a chair onto the field or choke a player. I understand that the new thing for coaches to do is just observe. But even Phil Jackson, the Zen Master, would have been yelling and tearing his team a new one.
Someone has to hold people accountable. Someone needs to tell Jay Cutler "listen son, you're my quarterback, but you've got to stop forcing those throws." Someone needed to tell Desmond Clark "if you stop mid-route again you're done for the day." Someone needed to tell Greg Olsen "stop being scared of being hit and catch the ball." The only person who looked upset yesterday was Virginia McCaskey, and she's gotta be in her 80s. An even halfway decent coach would have done something, but not Lovie. He stood there, like a bump on a log, and watched an extremely important game go up in flames.
- To be clear, no the season is not over. It never is after one game. But the injuries to the defense are going to make it tough for us to get the job done. Lovie and Ron Turner seem to be in love with the idea of tossing the ball down the field, which is not good news for the defense either. Our front four did a great job of getting pressure on Aaron Rodgers, but our secondary looked like toast. Now we have to go without the one person who makes all the defensive calls. The other one, Mike Brown, is no longer there, so Urlacher was it.
Furthermore, with the love for passing down field we are on the verge of forgetting the running game. I've seen this before, back when Rex Grossman was the new hit in Chicago, and we just started airing it out left and right. It lost us a Super Bowl.
- In the other games, the Colts struggled to beat a bad Jacksonville team, which didn't surprise me too much. The Bengals and the Broncos both looked awful on offense, another non-surprise. In both of these instances the common logic prevailed. Indianapolis is going to struggle because they don't have a second wide receiver to complement Reggie Wayne. Anthony Gonzalez is out two to six weeks now, but he lost Peyton's all important "trust" this preseason by dropping too many balls. The Indy defense looked good, but you have to remember that they were going against two rookie tackles making their first starts. Against any team with a pulse Indy would have lost yesterday, but that is the difference between the good teams and the bad: the good teams find a way to win.
In Cincinnati, however, we were seeing two very bad teams go against one another. Kyle Orton looked every bit as weak armed as I remembered him being, and Carson Palmer looked washed up on the other sideline. That this game would end on such a fluke play (click here if you didn't see it) was pretty fitting. Let's just say that I'm fairly confident both of these teams will be closer to ten losses than ten wins.
- San Francisco began its march to the NFC west crown by defeating last year's NFC champs, and doing so in the ugly manner you would expect from a Mike Singletary team. I loved this hire for San Francisco; you go from a number of coaches who just couldn't connect with the players to one who was one of the best ever, and who's intensity can never be questioned. Singletary will get a ton out of this team even though there isn't a whole lot of talent there. It's amazing what a good coach can do.
- From Arizona's perspective, however, the Super Bowl curse is already showing its effects. Warner looked a bit slower than last year, the ground game still struggled, and they just couldn't come up with the big plays they did last year. Let's not forget that Arizona was only 9-7 last year (the same record the Bears had), and just happened to play in a weak division, then get hot at the right time. Arizona also will be closer to ten losses than to ten wins this year.
- It's far too early to revise my predictions; I'd like to wait until at least the quarter mark, if not mid season to do that. But let's just say that I'll be hoping that New England blows the Bills out tonight. It'd be nice to have one pick look even remotely possible after week one.
- With today's news that MLB Brian Urlacher will miss the rest of the season after dislocating his wrist, as well as with the other injuries suffered by our defense (most notably Pisa Tinoisamoa), it's hard to see things ending nearly as well as they could have this year. The team was up to all of the typical Lovie brain farts: faking a punt on 4th and 11 deep in their own territory (which, all things considered, might be the defining dumb moment of Lovie's tenure), calling for a screen pass inside the ten yard line, challenging your own stupid call on the fake punt (which wasted another time out)... the list goes on and on.
The single most infuriating thing about the game was watching Lovie once again sit there like Forrest Gump, seemingly not even caring that his season was going up in flames all around him. He stood there, watching Culter pretend to be Rex Grossman, watching his receivers not finish running their routes, watching his long snapper call for a fake punt audible ... he stood there and didn't even move. I don't need him to throw a chair onto the field or choke a player. I understand that the new thing for coaches to do is just observe. But even Phil Jackson, the Zen Master, would have been yelling and tearing his team a new one.
Someone has to hold people accountable. Someone needs to tell Jay Cutler "listen son, you're my quarterback, but you've got to stop forcing those throws." Someone needed to tell Desmond Clark "if you stop mid-route again you're done for the day." Someone needed to tell Greg Olsen "stop being scared of being hit and catch the ball." The only person who looked upset yesterday was Virginia McCaskey, and she's gotta be in her 80s. An even halfway decent coach would have done something, but not Lovie. He stood there, like a bump on a log, and watched an extremely important game go up in flames.
- To be clear, no the season is not over. It never is after one game. But the injuries to the defense are going to make it tough for us to get the job done. Lovie and Ron Turner seem to be in love with the idea of tossing the ball down the field, which is not good news for the defense either. Our front four did a great job of getting pressure on Aaron Rodgers, but our secondary looked like toast. Now we have to go without the one person who makes all the defensive calls. The other one, Mike Brown, is no longer there, so Urlacher was it.
Furthermore, with the love for passing down field we are on the verge of forgetting the running game. I've seen this before, back when Rex Grossman was the new hit in Chicago, and we just started airing it out left and right. It lost us a Super Bowl.
- In the other games, the Colts struggled to beat a bad Jacksonville team, which didn't surprise me too much. The Bengals and the Broncos both looked awful on offense, another non-surprise. In both of these instances the common logic prevailed. Indianapolis is going to struggle because they don't have a second wide receiver to complement Reggie Wayne. Anthony Gonzalez is out two to six weeks now, but he lost Peyton's all important "trust" this preseason by dropping too many balls. The Indy defense looked good, but you have to remember that they were going against two rookie tackles making their first starts. Against any team with a pulse Indy would have lost yesterday, but that is the difference between the good teams and the bad: the good teams find a way to win.
In Cincinnati, however, we were seeing two very bad teams go against one another. Kyle Orton looked every bit as weak armed as I remembered him being, and Carson Palmer looked washed up on the other sideline. That this game would end on such a fluke play (click here if you didn't see it) was pretty fitting. Let's just say that I'm fairly confident both of these teams will be closer to ten losses than ten wins.
- San Francisco began its march to the NFC west crown by defeating last year's NFC champs, and doing so in the ugly manner you would expect from a Mike Singletary team. I loved this hire for San Francisco; you go from a number of coaches who just couldn't connect with the players to one who was one of the best ever, and who's intensity can never be questioned. Singletary will get a ton out of this team even though there isn't a whole lot of talent there. It's amazing what a good coach can do.
- From Arizona's perspective, however, the Super Bowl curse is already showing its effects. Warner looked a bit slower than last year, the ground game still struggled, and they just couldn't come up with the big plays they did last year. Let's not forget that Arizona was only 9-7 last year (the same record the Bears had), and just happened to play in a weak division, then get hot at the right time. Arizona also will be closer to ten losses than to ten wins this year.
- It's far too early to revise my predictions; I'd like to wait until at least the quarter mark, if not mid season to do that. But let's just say that I'll be hoping that New England blows the Bills out tonight. It'd be nice to have one pick look even remotely possible after week one.
Sunday, September 13, 2009
The Greatest There Ever Was
This weekend, ever so quietly, the G.O.A.T. made his final journey into basketball immortality. How strange is it, after all these years, that the final step of Michael Jordan's illustrious basketball career would be so soundly overshadowed by the start of the NFL season? A man who, for the better part of a decade starting in the late 1980s, dominated the sports world as completely and thoroughly as anyone ever has, and he was overshadowed by the start of a different league's season.
I think that the way MJ's HOF induction was covered tells us a number of things. The first thing is that many people still are unsure how to come to grips with Jordan. His name is far more famous than any other name in this world. But at this point he has become a bit of an enigma to the masses. He had the greatest stretch of any professional athlete, regardless of sport, and that time included a retirement (1988-1998). He dominated an entire era both on the individual level, as well as the team level; six NBA championships, five MVP awards, countless scoring titles, All-NBA defensive team honors as well as Defensive Player of the Year awards ... you name it, Jordan did it.
But the same things that made fans love (or hate) Jordan during his prime are the very things that leave so many wondering what to make of him now. His competitive drive, so legendary, was what drove him to levels no other man had achieved. But that same drive is now what leads to articles like this being written about how much of a bitter man he has become. Or books, like Michael Leahy's brilliant account of MJ's time with the Washington Wizards, to be written. Look, I'm a huge Michael Jordan fan, but I'm also a realist. The very things that made my childhood idol such a success are the very things that drive people away from him. I'm not the least bit surprised that he spent a portion of his acceptance speech taking shots at his High School coach (who cut him from the varsity team), or Isiah Thomas, or Jerry Krause. It was, no matter how little you might want to admit it, those people who drove Michael to the heights he reached. They all, in their own way, belittled the man who would become the greatest ever. But much as Michael used them to drive himself to higher levels, he now needs them to confirm to himself that he was worthwhile.
Being the king of the world may be lonely, but having once been the king, and now just being able to look back on it wistfully must be much worse. Michael Jordan used his demons and his competitive drive to push himself to the top. Those same aspects of him now leave him unable to come to grips with his own humanity. We often idolize people, ignoring their flaws, but when we start to embrace them, flaws and all, there can be important lessons to be learned. With Michael the lesson is obvious: always be aware of your own mortality, and know that everything has to end.
I think that the way MJ's HOF induction was covered tells us a number of things. The first thing is that many people still are unsure how to come to grips with Jordan. His name is far more famous than any other name in this world. But at this point he has become a bit of an enigma to the masses. He had the greatest stretch of any professional athlete, regardless of sport, and that time included a retirement (1988-1998). He dominated an entire era both on the individual level, as well as the team level; six NBA championships, five MVP awards, countless scoring titles, All-NBA defensive team honors as well as Defensive Player of the Year awards ... you name it, Jordan did it.
But the same things that made fans love (or hate) Jordan during his prime are the very things that leave so many wondering what to make of him now. His competitive drive, so legendary, was what drove him to levels no other man had achieved. But that same drive is now what leads to articles like this being written about how much of a bitter man he has become. Or books, like Michael Leahy's brilliant account of MJ's time with the Washington Wizards, to be written. Look, I'm a huge Michael Jordan fan, but I'm also a realist. The very things that made my childhood idol such a success are the very things that drive people away from him. I'm not the least bit surprised that he spent a portion of his acceptance speech taking shots at his High School coach (who cut him from the varsity team), or Isiah Thomas, or Jerry Krause. It was, no matter how little you might want to admit it, those people who drove Michael to the heights he reached. They all, in their own way, belittled the man who would become the greatest ever. But much as Michael used them to drive himself to higher levels, he now needs them to confirm to himself that he was worthwhile.
Being the king of the world may be lonely, but having once been the king, and now just being able to look back on it wistfully must be much worse. Michael Jordan used his demons and his competitive drive to push himself to the top. Those same aspects of him now leave him unable to come to grips with his own humanity. We often idolize people, ignoring their flaws, but when we start to embrace them, flaws and all, there can be important lessons to be learned. With Michael the lesson is obvious: always be aware of your own mortality, and know that everything has to end.
Friday, September 11, 2009
Time Will Pass So Quickly
Just sitting here, writing this post, thinking about these things ... just doing this brings goosebumps up and down my arms. I can't really put a finger on it, but I can FEEL emotion welling up inside of me. So many things are rushing through my mind, and it is hard for me to really know where to begin with this story. And so, I suppose, I'll start with the title and move forward from there.
On February 28, 1999 my Grandfather passed away. I was in Jr. High School at the time, and he and I were rather close. It hurt quite a bit, but the timing was as right, as the timing of those things can be. His passing gave me an impromptu jolt forward, from childhood to a bit of adulthood, and it framed quite a bit of my thinking through the next few years. Since the day of his funeral I have carried the same card in my wallet. It's from his funeral, and has a poem on it, as things of that nature often do. A portion of the poem which I often have focused in on read "Time will pass so quickly, but time will heal the wounds." Throughout many tough times in my life I have meditated on these words as hope for the future and moving forward.
If my Grandfather's death was impact moment number one in my childhood, the first moment which violently moved me towards adulthood, then the second moment occurred September 11, 2001. Sitting in a class room in my High School, taking a standardized test, we had no idea what had just befallen our country. If this were to happen even today I have no doubt that someone in that class would have received a text message, or a facebook update, or a twitter about the goings on. Even in the classroom. But in 2001 I didn't even have a cell phone yet, and those who did were not yet brazen enough to carry them into a class, at least not on.
So we sat, totally unaware of the world shifting under our feet, for a few hours while we took
tests that we had to take to be able to graduate. The last moments, as it would be, of our childhood were slipping away, and we had no idea. The world was changing, and the paradigm that had worked since the fall of the USSR, the same basic idea that had encompassed our world view for all of our lives, was almost instantly gone. When Mr. Cook walked into the room with a such a serious look on his face I knew something was up. He told us that we would remember sitting in that class, that day, the same way our parents remembered where they were when JFK was killed, and our Grandparents when Pearl Harbor was bombed. The weight started to pound down on me, but in a calm, strong, articulate manner he managed to convey what had happened. And I jumped forward yet again.
Perhaps it was preordained from birth that I would get into politics, but I have a sneaking suspicion that 9/11 cemented my direction. I finished my remaining years of High School
continuing to distance myself from much of what I had held dear, and moving out towards ... something. I wasn't sure then, and I would be lying if I told you that I was any more sure right now. I got involved with Student Government, and we pushed through a number of goals that others had tried and failed to achieve. I was Senior Class President, but by the time I graduated I had burned most of the bridges I had with my various social groups. I moved towards Indiana University with a sense of cautious optimism.
I settled on Political Science as my major while sitting with my roommate to be in a room without air conditioning in Bloomington, in mid-July. It was hot, I was wearing hair down to my shoulders, and had not shaved in about two months. It was my first time to Bloomington in nearly a decade (I never visited, just applied, was accepted, and accepted their acceptance). And I was reading through all the various majors which were offered, and trying to settle on something to tell my "advisor" in the morning. A big state school, particularly a Liberal-Arts one such as IU, gives you every option under the sun. I settled on Political Science for the outward reason that I had always loved History, and wanted something I'd love, yet I also wanted something that would challenge me to grow. And so the die was cast: I would study Political Science.
I suspect that inwardly I was still feeling the aftershocks of 9/11. I had no idea what focus I would have within the department, and I actually had no idea what the department could offer. I signed up for one Political Science class (Intro to US Politics), which I figured would be nice and easy since I had taken AP Government in High School. I wasn't genuinely moved within my major until, on a whim, I signed up for Y109 my second semester. Introduction to International Relations was the name of the class. A portion of my third jump forward was about to occur, although I had no way of knowing at the time.
You see, my freshman year in High School I saw George W. Bush take office by beating Al Gore. I still, to this day, will be honest and tell you I would have voted for Bush whole heartedly if given the chance. My freshman year at IU I again saw Bush win office, this time by beating Kerry. I was voting now, for the first time, and I was genuinely conflicted by my choice. On the one had you had Bush, who was the devil I knew, and who, to that point, had one big strike against him in my book: he had totally, systematically mismanaged the occupation of Iraq. My initial support for the War in Iraq is a story for another day; still, by 2004 I knew that it wasn't going well, and I had determined that Bush was, above all else, not a great Commander in Chief of the US Armed Forces. On the other hand you had John F. Kerry, who was nothing if not a worthless joke of candidate. I couldn't envision Kerry as President. I weighed the devil I knew against the devil I didn't, was convinced that in Indiana it wouldn't matter anyway ... and swung with Kerry as a "protest vote."
To be honest, even with everything that befell the Bush Administration since that point I STILL feel dirty about having voted for Kerry. I don't think I'll ever feel comfortable with that vote. But 9/11 had changed me so much in such a small period of time: I began to delve in to international relations, and I focused on the Middle East. First with Kuwait, and a study of a "close" American ally in the Middle East. Then, after being given a research internship, with the Middle East Northern Tier. Again, the following year, with the Persian Gulf region. And, finally, culminating with a study of diplomacy in the nuclear age, and an Honors Thesis on the Iranian nuclear issue.
My time at IU was quickly shaped by 9/11, even if I didn't realize it at the time. Political Science wasn't even a fleeting thought in my mind on that day, yet by the time that six years had passed
I had become knowledgeable on the Middle East, international relations, diplomacy, and nuclear weapons. The world changed that day, and I changed that day, and those changes really do closely parallel one another. There are other things that played integral roles on how I ended up here too, most significantly the reality that Hurricane Katrina brought every American about how unprepared we were 
to deal with our own problems even as we tried to fix the world's. But, sitting here today, I can honestly say that there are at least dozens of other things I may have ended up doing had those planes not hit the towers, or the Pentagon, or the field in Pennsylvania. It is mind blowing that I can sit here and say that eight years have passed. EIGHT YEARS! On the one hand, it still feels like yesterday to be honest. But, quite on the other, it seems like an eternity has passed. It seems like ancient history, or at least history of the World War II variety where we are still seeing the outcomes but the impact itself seems so long ago.
And now I work with kids, in residential placement, trying to make the world a better place quite literally one life at a time. And, again, I wonder how I got here. This certainly isn't where I thought I would be if you had asked me three years ago. I still can't believe I've been out of school for over a year. On some levels I feel like a failure because I'm not doing what I was "supposed" to do, but on other levels I feel like a success exactly because of that reason. Is grad school a real option for me? I know some people who were born and bred for it. I worked with them at school; hell, I LIVED with them at school. I don't talk to any of them anymore, for a variety of reasons, but I know that I'm not built like them. One thing that I have learned about myself is that no matter how academic I make it, no matter how intellectual I try to keep things, I still feel them too much to truly keep it separate. I work with these kids because this is tangible, and I can see my successes and my failures up close and personal. I'm not sure that I could ever see the results like that in the academic or government settings, and for that reason, perhaps above all others, I can honestly s
ay I'm not sure where I'm going. But today, at least, I know where I've been, and where it has taken me.
I'm still not sure what to make of the world we've been left with following 9/11. Sometimes I feel like Frodo does in The Lord of the Rings: "I wish the ring had never come to me. I wish none of this had happened." I think we all feel that way from time to time in life, when we get down, when bad things befall us. It is not Frodo's quote we need to remember, however, but instead Gandalf's response: "So do all who live to see such times, but that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us." Time has passed so quickly, but I can say that, even if time has not quite healed the many wounds that life has left with me, I have also lived a lifetime in the past eight years. Only time will tell what the next eight may bring.
On February 28, 1999 my Grandfather passed away. I was in Jr. High School at the time, and he and I were rather close. It hurt quite a bit, but the timing was as right, as the timing of those things can be. His passing gave me an impromptu jolt forward, from childhood to a bit of adulthood, and it framed quite a bit of my thinking through the next few years. Since the day of his funeral I have carried the same card in my wallet. It's from his funeral, and has a poem on it, as things of that nature often do. A portion of the poem which I often have focused in on read "Time will pass so quickly, but time will heal the wounds." Throughout many tough times in my life I have meditated on these words as hope for the future and moving forward.
If my Grandfather's death was impact moment number one in my childhood, the first moment which violently moved me towards adulthood, then the second moment occurred September 11, 2001. Sitting in a class room in my High School, taking a standardized test, we had no idea what had just befallen our country. If this were to happen even today I have no doubt that someone in that class would have received a text message, or a facebook update, or a twitter about the goings on. Even in the classroom. But in 2001 I didn't even have a cell phone yet, and those who did were not yet brazen enough to carry them into a class, at least not on.
So we sat, totally unaware of the world shifting under our feet, for a few hours while we took
tests that we had to take to be able to graduate. The last moments, as it would be, of our childhood were slipping away, and we had no idea. The world was changing, and the paradigm that had worked since the fall of the USSR, the same basic idea that had encompassed our world view for all of our lives, was almost instantly gone. When Mr. Cook walked into the room with a such a serious look on his face I knew something was up. He told us that we would remember sitting in that class, that day, the same way our parents remembered where they were when JFK was killed, and our Grandparents when Pearl Harbor was bombed. The weight started to pound down on me, but in a calm, strong, articulate manner he managed to convey what had happened. And I jumped forward yet again.Perhaps it was preordained from birth that I would get into politics, but I have a sneaking suspicion that 9/11 cemented my direction. I finished my remaining years of High School
continuing to distance myself from much of what I had held dear, and moving out towards ... something. I wasn't sure then, and I would be lying if I told you that I was any more sure right now. I got involved with Student Government, and we pushed through a number of goals that others had tried and failed to achieve. I was Senior Class President, but by the time I graduated I had burned most of the bridges I had with my various social groups. I moved towards Indiana University with a sense of cautious optimism.I settled on Political Science as my major while sitting with my roommate to be in a room without air conditioning in Bloomington, in mid-July. It was hot, I was wearing hair down to my shoulders, and had not shaved in about two months. It was my first time to Bloomington in nearly a decade (I never visited, just applied, was accepted, and accepted their acceptance). And I was reading through all the various majors which were offered, and trying to settle on something to tell my "advisor" in the morning. A big state school, particularly a Liberal-Arts one such as IU, gives you every option under the sun. I settled on Political Science for the outward reason that I had always loved History, and wanted something I'd love, yet I also wanted something that would challenge me to grow. And so the die was cast: I would study Political Science.
I suspect that inwardly I was still feeling the aftershocks of 9/11. I had no idea what focus I would have within the department, and I actually had no idea what the department could offer. I signed up for one Political Science class (Intro to US Politics), which I figured would be nice and easy since I had taken AP Government in High School. I wasn't genuinely moved within my major until, on a whim, I signed up for Y109 my second semester. Introduction to International Relations was the name of the class. A portion of my third jump forward was about to occur, although I had no way of knowing at the time.
You see, my freshman year in High School I saw George W. Bush take office by beating Al Gore. I still, to this day, will be honest and tell you I would have voted for Bush whole heartedly if given the chance. My freshman year at IU I again saw Bush win office, this time by beating Kerry. I was voting now, for the first time, and I was genuinely conflicted by my choice. On the one had you had Bush, who was the devil I knew, and who, to that point, had one big strike against him in my book: he had totally, systematically mismanaged the occupation of Iraq. My initial support for the War in Iraq is a story for another day; still, by 2004 I knew that it wasn't going well, and I had determined that Bush was, above all else, not a great Commander in Chief of the US Armed Forces. On the other hand you had John F. Kerry, who was nothing if not a worthless joke of candidate. I couldn't envision Kerry as President. I weighed the devil I knew against the devil I didn't, was convinced that in Indiana it wouldn't matter anyway ... and swung with Kerry as a "protest vote."
To be honest, even with everything that befell the Bush Administration since that point I STILL feel dirty about having voted for Kerry. I don't think I'll ever feel comfortable with that vote. But 9/11 had changed me so much in such a small period of time: I began to delve in to international relations, and I focused on the Middle East. First with Kuwait, and a study of a "close" American ally in the Middle East. Then, after being given a research internship, with the Middle East Northern Tier. Again, the following year, with the Persian Gulf region. And, finally, culminating with a study of diplomacy in the nuclear age, and an Honors Thesis on the Iranian nuclear issue.
My time at IU was quickly shaped by 9/11, even if I didn't realize it at the time. Political Science wasn't even a fleeting thought in my mind on that day, yet by the time that six years had passed
I had become knowledgeable on the Middle East, international relations, diplomacy, and nuclear weapons. The world changed that day, and I changed that day, and those changes really do closely parallel one another. There are other things that played integral roles on how I ended up here too, most significantly the reality that Hurricane Katrina brought every American about how unprepared we were 
to deal with our own problems even as we tried to fix the world's. But, sitting here today, I can honestly say that there are at least dozens of other things I may have ended up doing had those planes not hit the towers, or the Pentagon, or the field in Pennsylvania. It is mind blowing that I can sit here and say that eight years have passed. EIGHT YEARS! On the one hand, it still feels like yesterday to be honest. But, quite on the other, it seems like an eternity has passed. It seems like ancient history, or at least history of the World War II variety where we are still seeing the outcomes but the impact itself seems so long ago.And now I work with kids, in residential placement, trying to make the world a better place quite literally one life at a time. And, again, I wonder how I got here. This certainly isn't where I thought I would be if you had asked me three years ago. I still can't believe I've been out of school for over a year. On some levels I feel like a failure because I'm not doing what I was "supposed" to do, but on other levels I feel like a success exactly because of that reason. Is grad school a real option for me? I know some people who were born and bred for it. I worked with them at school; hell, I LIVED with them at school. I don't talk to any of them anymore, for a variety of reasons, but I know that I'm not built like them. One thing that I have learned about myself is that no matter how academic I make it, no matter how intellectual I try to keep things, I still feel them too much to truly keep it separate. I work with these kids because this is tangible, and I can see my successes and my failures up close and personal. I'm not sure that I could ever see the results like that in the academic or government settings, and for that reason, perhaps above all others, I can honestly s
ay I'm not sure where I'm going. But today, at least, I know where I've been, and where it has taken me.I'm still not sure what to make of the world we've been left with following 9/11. Sometimes I feel like Frodo does in The Lord of the Rings: "I wish the ring had never come to me. I wish none of this had happened." I think we all feel that way from time to time in life, when we get down, when bad things befall us. It is not Frodo's quote we need to remember, however, but instead Gandalf's response: "So do all who live to see such times, but that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us." Time has passed so quickly, but I can say that, even if time has not quite healed the many wounds that life has left with me, I have also lived a lifetime in the past eight years. Only time will tell what the next eight may bring.
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