Happy Birthday Dave - Part Four

After a week hiatus to talk IU basketball and the (likely) end of the Tom Crean era, I'm back to my DMB top fifty. This list continues to be spurred by Dave Matthews having turned 50 this year, as well as the band taking its first full year off since they formed. As a reminder:

No covers - no matter how much I love the various cover songs that DMB plays at shows, for this list to be authentic in my opinion the songs have to belong to the band.

Unreleased tracks count - so Blue Water can make it in. 

Studio versions are important, but the live version is more important. This is a band that has flourished because of their 25 plus years of playing live. What matters is how the song plays live. 

The rareness of a song, and my search to hear it live, factors in. I'm just not really sure how. 

This list is how the songs hit me now, in January/February of 2017. I've made lists before, and this will vary from those. 

Without further delay, here are songs 30-24 (because I can randomly pick numbers to end it at!):

#30 - Drunken Soldier - from the "Away From The World" album, the ultimate track on the album starts with the band jamming a bit, Dave talking in the background, and some scat riffs. It then suddenly turns darker, bolder, and gives the listener dramatic parts of guitar, sax, and drum building up in surges. Intense and meaningful lyrics follow, and the song eventually dissipates into an ending that integrates aspects of Pink Floyd, giving the imagery of a drunken soldier reflecting on life. The first time I heard this song was in 2012 in Charlottesville, and I've heard it three times since. It quickly became my most listened to song from the album, and certainly, in my opinion, the most dynamic song on the album and best to hear live. For sentimental reasons it doesn't finish as the highest rated song from the album, but it does crack the top thirty. Given its relative youth compared with the songs that follow, that's impressive in and of itself. Lyric to consider: "Keep your head up, and try to listen to your heart. Be kind always, no matter. We all grow up; someday we'll say goodbye. So shine your light while you've got one."

#29 - Busted Stuff - the lead track off the album of the same name, this is the second song on this list that I have never heard live. Indeed, the song has only been played a total of 36 times in concert, with the last being in 2010 at the Gorge. Prior to the six 2010 plays it hadn't been played since 2003. Part of the reason I love the band is chasing after songs like this, and realizing when (if) they start to play it that it is such a rarity. Lyric to consider: "A rolling stone gathers no moss, but leaves a trail of busted stuff."

#28 - Stay - From the "Before These Crowded Streets" album, stay is an exceptional song to end a show, whether in the traditional final song before the encore spot, or the final encore slot. I heard Stay in 2006 at Tinley Park, and have heard it seven times since, including live at Wrigley Field:


Ultimately, the song invites you to stay in the moment just a bit longer, to reflect on the good times, and to cherish life. Lyric to consider: "Wasting time. Let the hours roll by for the fun. Little taste of the good life, whether right or wrong, makes us want to stay, stay, stay for awhile."

#27 - Blue Water - An unreleased song that has not been played in its' entirety since 2009 according to DMB almanac. That said, the song hasn't been played with regularity since 1993, and is sort of like the holy grail of DMB songs for me at this point. I've heard partial versions of the song three times: 2011 (Dave and Tim), and 2012 twice with the full band (Alpine Valley and Charlottesville). Here is the tease from 2011:


On the whole, the full song, which includes incredible guitar and violin solos, is dark and contemplative. Each time I hear a tease I hope it will the be time I hear the full thing. Maybe the next time. Lyric to consider: "The river taste me, I'm so much more than I have ever been."

#26 - Grey Street - One of my wife's favorite songs, this song originally had a different construction as a part of the unreleased work that ended up being "The Lillywhite Sessions." When remastered and officially released on "Busted Stuff," the song was much cleaner and contained three verses. Then, after playing the song live for awhile, the third verse was dropped, cleaning the song up further to the existing structure of two verses. The song has a ton of energy on the album, but even more when played live. Part of a three song "tribute" to a scorned lover, this is the final of those three songs. I've seen Grey Street live 17 times in total, making it one of the most played songs across the shows I've been to. Lyric to consider: "She feels like kicking out all the windows, and setting fire to this life. She could change everything about her using colors bold and bright. But all the colors mix together, to grey. And it breaks her heart."

#25 - You and Me - the ultimate song off of "Big Whiskey and the Groo Grux King," this song, in my opinion, sets up the following album, "Away From The World." It does so in as much as it lyrically involves reflecting on raising a family, growing older, and what all that will bring. It is unquestionably optimistic in tone, a tone which will be challenged in the ensuing album. I've seen You and Me 15 times since it made its' debut in 2009, making it a frequent song at shows. Lyric to consider: "Oh and when the kids are old enough we're gonna teach them to fly."

#24 - Dancing Nancies - From the first studio release, "Under The Table And Dreaming," Nancies is a classic, and a great song live. I first heard it in a Dave and Tim show in 2008 at Assembly Hall, and have heard it another twelve times since. I don't have much more to say, other than that the song is great on the album, but better live, and is a great song to dance to. Lyric to consider: "Sing and dance I'll play for you tonight, the thrill of it all. Dark clouds may hang on me sometimes, but I'll work it out."

Giving Your Team A Chance - Why IU Should Fire Tom Crean

I lived through both the Mike Davis and Kelvin Sampson eras at IU, and so I can say this with a bit of authority: Tom Crean is the best coach IU has had, on balance, since they fired Bobby Knight. Davis was a far worse in game tactician than Crean is (even if that is saying something; Crean's in game adjustments leave a lot to be desired). Sampson, while a better in game coach, was corrupt and couldn't play by the rules, so his achievements in recruiting talent and on the court are tainted. Crean sits somewhere in the middle: a better coach than Davis and able to run a program without relying on cheating like Sampson.

Unfortunately, that's likely not enough. Indiana Basketball hasn't won a national title in 29 years, and based on the way this year has gone it seems impossibly unlikely that they will even have a chance to stop that streak from moving to 30. Put another way, barring a shocking turnaround which leads to the team running the table through the Big Ten Tournament to secure an automatic bid, Indiana basketball will miss the NCAA tournament for the fifth time in nine years. This article, which lays out the argument that Crean's sin is lack of consistency in getting to the tournament, is kinder than I am, giving Crean a pass for his first three years. Certainly, the first three years have an asterisk due to the state of the program when Crean took over, but nonetheless he is poised to fail to make the tournament the majority of his first nine years in Bloomington.

For a program that grades itself by how many banners it has hanging in Assembly Hall, the first goal has to be to make the tournament with consistency. As the article lays out, in table form, that is what allows programs like Duke, UNC and Kansas to have a chance to win titles. They simply make the tournament with consistency. IU hasn't done that since the 1990s; that is a large part of why their title drought is about to roll over 30 years.

This concept is not specific to NCAA basketball either. Consider Alabama football. The program, which judges itself based on national titles, hadn't won a title since 1992. Then they entered Nick Saban, and the program's finish since his first full year has been, in order, sixth, first, tenth, first, first, seventh, fourth, first and second. That is nine consecutive top ten finishes, with four national titles. Simply put, Saban's team is always in the running, ready to take advantage of the breaks of the game. Last year they narrowly missed their fifth national title in nine years. The smart money has them finishing in the top ten next year; already, they are the projected to be a top team by most publications.

This is the same theory that Theo Epstein had coming to Chicago, and before that in Boston. You can't focus on trying to make any one year the year. Instead, you have to focus on making the playoffs year after year, and then wait for your pitching to get hot ... or a ball to fall just right ... or to take the right bounce. In hockey we know this to be true as well: get yourself in position, get the hot goalie or the hot scorer, and anything can happen. The Blackhawks had made the playoffs just once in ten years prior to their recent string of success. Since then they have made the playoffs eight straight years, resulting in three Stanley Cup Championships, and are currently poised to make the playoffs for a ninth consecutive year. And just recently I wrote about this same concept regarding the New England Patriots, just before they added a fifth Super Bowl title in an unprecedented age of parity.

This, ultimately, is why Crean must go. Indiana Basketball is not poised to recruit like Duke, UNC, Kansas or Kentucky is, at least not at this time. But to get there, and to improve their chances of hanging banner number six, the team has to get consistently to the NCAA tournament. Crean has failed to do that, and in doing so he's made his team even more susceptible to being on the wrong end of the breaks of the game. Who knows who will replace Crean; it's unlikely they will get someone with even the same amount of name recognition that Crean had coming in. But a good coach who can maximize the talent on the roster will be a start. Getting to the tournament yearly, ideally with a top four seed, has to be the goal. It's time for IU to move on and try to find someone who can build a program capable of that.

Happy Birthday Dave - Part Three

Here we are, ready for part three of the POV breakdown of the top 50 DMB songs of all time. Again, this list was spurred by the realization that Dave Matthews turned 50 this year. The band, taking their first full year hiatus since they formed, has had a number of album hits. But they are best known for their touring prowess. As a reminder:

• No covers - no matter how much I love the various cover songs that DMB plays at shows, for this list to be authentic in my opinion the songs have to belong to the band.
• Unreleased tracks count - so Blue Water can make it in. 
• Studio versions are important, but the live version is more important. This is a band that has flourished because of their 25 plus years of playing live. What matters is how the song plays live. 
• The rareness of a song, and my search to hear it live, factors in. I'm just not really sure how. 
• This list is how the songs hit me now, in January/February of 2017. I've made lists before, and this will vary from those. 

Without further delay, here are songs 40-31 (going for ten today!) with brief comments:

#40 - #41 - Of course, I suppose I could have made #41, from the "Crash" album, as the number forty one song on this list, but that's just not how this list shook out. #41 is one of the songs I have heard the most over all my DMB shows, coming in with 17 showings. The song is a crowd favorite, although I have to admit that I will routinely use the long jam at the end as a restroom break because it is so consistent in terms of length. The first time I heard #41 live was at Assembly Hall in Bloomington at a Dave and Tim show. I have heard the song at least once per year since, including during shows that became live releases at Wrigley Field and at John Paul Jones in Charlottesville. Overall, 15 full band plays and 2 Dave and Tim plays, and I'm pretty confident I'll hear it again this year at a Dave and Tim show this summer. Lyric to consider: "Why won't you run in the rain and play? Let the tears splash all over you."

#39 - The Space Between - From the much maligned "Everyday" album, I wasn't a huge fan of this song overall, and it certainly wouldn't have cracked a historical top fifty list. Then I heard it live, for the first time, at Alpine Valley in 2012. It was in position 22, with was the encore one spot. Dave and his guitar. A solo rendition. And I've been in love with the song ever since. So much so that I'm going to offer it up here for you to listen to if you should so choose:


Long story short, that night won me over on this song and it is steadily climbing up the ranks. I've seen it performed three additional times since, including last year at the 25th anniversary show in Charlottesville. Lyric to consider: "Look at us spinning out in the madness of a roller-coaster. You know you went off like the devil in the church in the middle of a crowded room. All I can do my love is hope we don't take this ship down."

#38 - Steady As We Go - from an even more maligned album (at least in my opinion), Steady As We Go is one of the few highlights from the "Stand Up" album. Steady As We Go has a unique place on this list as the first song that I have not yet heard live. Hard to believe, after 42 shows, that there is any song I haven't heard, right? That's a part of what makes this band so special, and what keeps me going back for more. This song wasn't played from 2006 on, with the lone exception of the band busting it out at The Gorge in 2014. In DMB terms, that removed the song from exile. Beyond chasing after the song, it has some personal meaning to me. Lyric to consider: "Troubles, they may come and go, but good times be the gold. So if the road gets rocky, girl, just steady as we go."

#37 - So Right - Another song from a not so popular album ("Everyday" again), So Right has a driving energy and is great live. It also happens to be the song that my wife and I exited down the aisle to at our wedding. I've heard this song five times live, including a first appearance in 2012 in Noblesville. The best time was in 2013, on our honeymoon, at The Gorge, when the band played not only this song, but also every other song from the band that we had in our wedding in any way, shape or form, including some pretty rare ones. Lyric to consider: "Stay up and make some memories here with us now. To roll red carpet out out with friends, to love and roll on."

#36 - The Idea of You - Unreleased, this song is a beast live, and is one that I hope will get the album treatment at some point in the future. I heard this song for the first time in 2006 at Tinley Park, and then not again until 2011 at the Chicago Caravan. There have been two additional shows that I've heard this at: 2013 at Noblesville and 2016 at Alpine Valley. Here it is, from that last show:


Overall, just a great song with a ton of energy. Interestingly enough, with this song not being an official release it doesn't have settled on "main lyrics" according to DMB Almanac. Lyric to consider: "I stumble, fall in front of you and all your cool friends. Oh you pick me up you brush me off. I grin, but all I wanna do is disappear."

#35 - Everyday - from the album of the same name, this song appeared in our wedding as a surprise when our pastor started singing it in the middle of his sermon. "That's love, right?" he asked after breaking into the song. I've heard Everyday live ten times, including seven times prior to our wedding. Needless to say, it took on a different meaning after that day. Lyric to consider: "All you need is, all you want is, all you need is love."

#34 - Corn Bread - my wife's favorite song, this unreleased track is high energy and a lot of fun live. I've heard Corn Bread a total of 14 times, the most of any unreleased song. The first time I heard it live was in 2007 at Noblesville, with the most recent being 2014 in Noblesville again. The first show my wife and I went to, in 2011, was a Dave and Tim show. Naturally, they played Corn Bread. They've played it another seven times since, and that hasn't stopped her from clamoring for it every time. Lyric to consider: "The joy is steeped with sin."

#33 - Snow Outside - from the most recent studio album, "Away From The World," this track makes me go to a peaceful place to reflect on life and the future. I've heard it three times, including this show in Charlottesville, VA, in 2012:


That show was the only show that we have had tickets to the pit for (the area right in front of the stage that is standing room only. We ended up on the second "row," right off the rail, halfway between Dave and Boyd. A good song, an amazing show. Lyric to consider: "Come winter I will build you a fire from the bones of who I used to be, before you came and washed the weary away, before you came here for me."

#32 - Broken Things - a second straight song off of "Away From The World," I've only heard this song twice live. The first time, in 2012 was in Charlottesville. The second time came the next year at Noblesville. Overall that is a disappointment, because I thought that this was one of the better songs of the album. It is the first track on the album, and sets the tone for all the songs that are to come in terms of the outlook and perspective the band is sharing. Lyric to consider: "Well, how could we know our lives would be so full of these beautifully broken things?"

#31 - Alligator Pie - This song used to rank quite a bit higher on my list, but has dropped down the list a bit. My emotional ties to the song are strong, related to how much time I spent on the Gulf Coast following Hurricane Katrina, which this song is about. This song has a rare distinction as a rare song that I heard back to back nights at the same location (2009 in Noblesville). Typically the band does not play the same song on concurrent nights of multi-night stays but they did that night. I've heard the song twice since then (2011 during the caravans for both). I'd be happy to hear it again. Lyric to consider: "the devil broke the levee and left us here to die."

Happy Birthday Dave - Part Two

This is part two of my breakdown of my favorite 50 Dave Matthews/Dave Matthews Band songs, in celebration of Dave's 50th birthday. As a reminder:

• No covers - no matter how much I love the various cover songs that DMB plays at shows, for this list to be authentic in my opinion the songs have to belong to the band.
• Unreleased tracks count - so Blue Water can make it in. 
• Studio versions are important, but the live version is more important. This is a band that has flourished because of their 25 plus years of playing live. What matters is how the song plays live. 
• The rareness of a song, and my search to hear it live, factors in. I'm just not really sure how. 
• This list is how the songs hit me now, in January/February of 2017. I've made lists before, and this will vary from those. 

Without further delay, here are songs 45-41, with brief comments:

#45 - Captain - from the Busted Stuff album, this song opens with a strong bass line, lightly moving violin, and firm, yet understated drumming from Carter. Dave's voice is almost quiet, reflective, and the lyrics are contemplative, if dark. This song is an example of the depths that the band can go to, and if you really take in the lyrics of self-examination and self-reflection it can make you wonder about yourself as well. I've had the chance to hear Captain twice: 2011 at Lakeside during the Caravans and in 2013 at Noblesville. Lyric to consider: "Strange, but it seems like like there's a mutiny brewing inside of me. But I don't want your pity, only the promise that you'll stay with me tonight."

#44 - Stay or Leave - from Dave's solo album, Some Devil, this song is one of the songs I've heard most often on tour, with 12 different times being played. The first time I heard it was in 2008 at Assembly Hall in Bloomington, at a Dave and Tim show which benefited Barack Obama's fundraising towards the end of the primary season. Other notable performances included 2010 at Wrigley Field (full band), 2011 in Charlottesville, VA (Dave and Tim), and a total of 3 full band performances in both 2011 and 2012. It's a good transition song live, and a great album version secures its' place on this list. Lyric to consider: "Wake up naked, drinking coffee, making plans to change the world, while the world is changing us." 

#43 - Grace is Gone - another song from the Busted Stuff album, this song is a great take on trying to find peace at the end of the bottle or whiskey glass. With his daughter's name in the title, this song is a great live performance. I've been in attendance to hear the song four times. The first two were in 2011, first at Lakeside in a Dave and Tim performance, and the second in Charlottesville, VA at a Dave and Tim show (I'm listening to that version right now as I write this). I then saw this song again in 2012 in Virginia Beach, and again last year, 2016, at Alpine Valley. This song is good with the full band, but the Dave and Tim version is probably my favorite. Lyric to consider: "I could never love again so much as I love you. Where you end, where I begin, is like a river going through." 

#42 - The Song That Jane Likes - a song that originated with the early band Tribe of Heaven, which Dave was a part of, this song has its roots in a time before Dave Matthews started play with the members of the band. Always opening with "I have a sister named Jane, and this is The Song That Jane Likes," the intro to the song will routinely get drowned out by cheers. I've seen "Jane" a total of nine times, with the first coming in 2009 at Tinley Park, IL. Other showings included twice at John Paul Jones in Charlottesville (2010 and 2016), three times in Noblesville (2012, 2014 and 2015), twice at Alpine Valley (2012 and 2016), and on our honeymoon to The Gorge (2013). Lyric to consider: "All of the captain's cards are kings. Still, he and the queen are lost at sea. I hope it isn't you and me." 

#41 - Raven - A third song from Busted Stuff in this section, much like Captain I've seen it twice. This song is outwardly about Jesus and God having a conversation, but, as with most DMB lyrics, there is a variety of views which could be taken, and the lyrics have a great deal of depth. The first time I saw this song was 2012 in Alpine Valley, with the second coming in 2015 at Noblesville. The song has great interplay between members of the band, and is always a crowd favorite. Lyric to consider: "What you got, what you got in your hand? Your secrets safe with me. Well I found the truth friend, let me whisper in your ear."

Happy Birthday Dave - Part One

Dave Matthews turned 50 on January 9th. The AARP trolled him with a fake cover. And I felt much older than I am, while simultaneously thinking "oh crap, they won't tour forever, I have to see DMB every chance I get from here on out!!!!" And then I realized that while my wife is a huge fan as well, we have a family, responsibilities, and we can't quit all of that to become groupies for the rest of the band's living days. Unless one of my faithful readers would like to send a few million dollars. I promise we'll spend it wisely.

Short of that, however, I am going to use happy number 50 for Dave to rank my top 50 DMB songs of all time. A few rules:

• No covers - no matter how much I love the various cover songs that DMB plays at shows, for this list to be authentic in my opinion the songs have to belong to the band.
• Unreleased tracks count - so Blue Water can make it in. 
• Studio versions are important, but the live version is more important. This is a band that has flourished because of their 25 plus years of playing live. What matters is how the song plays live. 
• The rareness of a song, and my search to hear it live, factors in. I'm just not really sure how. 
• This list is how the songs hit me now, in January of 2017. I've made lists before, and this will vary from those. 

And so, with no further delay, here are numbers 50-46, with brief comments:

#50 - JTR - a song written during The Lillywhite sessions and not officially released, JTR has been played off and on since its' creation. I've only heard JTR live once, and it was 6/18/2010. That show was delayed after a massive storm which ripped through Noblesville, decimating our camp site. We had nowhere to go really, as our car was parked a ways away, and all we had was tents. So we danced in the rain, got hailed on, appreciated the sudden drop in temperature (it was a heat index of well over 100 with extremely high humidity that day), and then the band took the stage, opening with JTR. Lyric to consider: "Rain down on me." 

#49 - Minarets - And oldie, Minarets was released on the 1993 independent release "Remember Two Things." Predating their initial commercial release and popularity, Minarets combines a driving beat with a Middle Eastern feel. I've seen Minarets live three times, including last year at Alpine Valley, the year before in Noblesville, and in 2012 at Alpine Valley. It always gets the crowd going. Lyric to consider: "What you see, what you see, what you see, what you see is human." 

#48 - Shotgun - Unreleased, this song is, outwardly, about the death of Dave's sister Anne. The song is not completed, and the lyrics change, but the emotion is extremely powerful, and raw. I've heard Shotgun live a total of six times, with a tease on the Friday show in 2009 leading to a full version on night two in Noblesville. Just a complete show stopper in a good way. Lyric to consider: none really; the song itself is just an experience. 

#47 - Pig - This is a song that is typically cited as a top ten, if not top five, song for most DMB fans. I love it, but the depth of this band's catalog force it down here for me. My favorite memory of this song involves a good friend in a car on the way to Alpine Valley. This friend was listening to Pig with us in the car stereo. He said "man I hope I finally hear this at Alpine." We laughed: the version of Pig that we were listening to was from the concert we had both been at earlier that year in Noblesville, where the band had played ... you guessed it ... Pig. That was the first time I ever heard Pig live. I've heard Pig a total of five times, including that year at Alpine as well. Either way, my friend got his wish ... twice in one year! Lyric to consider: "Don't burn the day away"

#46 - Say Goodbye - This song, off the second studio album, Crash, is a softer track. It often opens slowly, with Carter playing a drum solo, building into the whole band suddenly being there, jamming. The lyrics are an invitation of a sort, and build to a climactic end. I've seen Say Goodbye three times, in 2009, 2010 and 2011, but none since then. That it has crept into the back half of the top 50 over many other songs I love tells me that I'm very ready to hear it again. Lyric to consider: "And in your eyes I see what's on my mind. You've got me wild, turned around inside." 

Appreciating Greatness

Growing up in the Jordan era, and as a Bulls fan, I have a great appreciation for greatness. It's why I tend to root for the more epic story when my team is already out of the running. I read this article, by Joe Posnanski, and it got me thinking about the insanely high level of achievement that Bill Belichick has achieved. This is the seventh Super Bowl qualifying team he has coached since 2001. In addition to those seven Super Bowl appearances, he has coached his team to the runner up spot in the AFC four more times. In addition to that, he has coached the team to the playoffs an additional three times. That is 14 playoff appearances since 2001, with his team failing to make the playoffs only twice: 2002 and 2008. Their record in those two years? 9-7 and 11-5 respectively. That's right: the two worst years out of the last sixteen years for the Patriots they had a combined record of 20-12. Put another way, the low points of the last sixteen years for the New England Patriots they have had a .625 winning percentage.

As a Bears fan that blows my mind. I ran into a Steelers fan the other day who made an off the cuff comment that his team should fire Mike Tomlin. Tomlin just finished his tenth year as the head coach of the Steelers. In that time his team has made two Super Bowls winning one. They have made the playoffs another five times. The remaining three years were 2009, 2012 and 2013. Their records in those years? 9-7, 8-8, and 8-8. A whole decade, making the playoffs 70% of the time, and never going below .500. And he was dreaming of a new coach. I told him that I'd happily take Tomlin as a Bears fan, but then I look at what Belichick has done and I think to myself that maybe that's what this Steelers fan was thinking. Because compared with New England, even Pittsburgh's last decade pales in comparison.

And so, here, on the Eve of the Super Bowl, as Belichick and Tom Brady go for their fifth Super Bowl title, I reflect on their greatness. There is no doubt that they push every envelope and look for whatever corner they can cut. But you point to their filming of other teams? I point to other teams that have done the same functional thing. You point to the laughable deflating of the footballs leading to the most undeserved suspension in the league's history? I point to Aaron Rodgers admitting that he likes the balls inflated beyond the legal limit, and no punishment heading his way. Ultimately, the league has punished the Patriots more harshly than any other team in professional sports recently, on flimsy evidence no less (and at best), and they have not only endured, they have been better than any other franchise in professional sports. That the Patriots have done this with the league seemingly gunning for them, and in an age of unprecedented parity no less, is nothing short of amazing. Love them or hate them, I don't see how it's possible to not respect what Belichick has done over the course of the last sixteen years, with only one constant: Tom Brady. Win or lose, this team and this duo is among the greatest in any sport. If they manage to win it? They take my top spot in the NFL without any question. Belichick might already be there regardless, but another win cements Brady as the Greatest Of All Time in my book, overtaking Montana. Let's go New England. This Bears fan is rooting for you.

The Pick: Patriots (-3) 34  - Falcons 27

Smokin' Jay Doesn't Care ... Should We?

It's pretty rare that the crazy ideas I have for my sports teams comes to pass. I will often talk about moves they should make, and explain the total logic behind why the teams need to do it. I'm passionate about it, and then the team goes in the other direction. On occasion, however, my arm chair quarterbacking aligns perfectly with what the team does. When that happens I can hardly believe it. With the Chicago Bears, in particular, it doesn't happen often. But it did happen on April 3, 2009, when the Chicago Bears made a deal with the Denver Broncos, paying a small fortune in picks, plus esteemed Junior College (Purdue) alum Kyle Orton, in exchange for the Broncos franchise QB.

I had been in a bar with my brother earlier that year arguing that if the Broncos really wanted to get rid of Jay Cutler then the Bears had to make the move to get him. Cutler's numbers thus far had been good, but compared to the junk the Bears had rolled out week ... after week ... after week of my lifetime they looked downright epic. Cutler was coming off of a year in which he threw over 4,500 yards. While the ensuing eight years of NFL football have cheapened that number, it's still a semi-impressive number, and it was even more impressive back then. Cutler played on a team with awful defense, and hadn't been able to win. But the Bears, always seeming to be a quarterback away, would fix that problem for him. They had a great defense, and were only a few years away from playing in the Super Bowl. All they seemed to need was a competent quarterback, and Cutler promised to be much more than that.

The trade was made, and almost immediately upon being announced there was drama. Team leader and future Hall of Famer Brian Urlacher gave the most lukewarm welcome to the team imaginable to Cutler, while praising the outgoing Orton. Word leaked that Cutler had refused to return the Broncos' calls for over a week preceding the trade. There was smoke that perhaps the fire of a premadonna burned deep inside Mr. Cutler. But the Bears had a QB, and suddenly they also had a brighter future. Or so we thought. That future didn't come in 2009, Cutler's first year. An injury to Urlacher in the season opener damped spirits, and the team limped to a 7-9 record. I continued my calls to fire Lovie Smith, calls which went unheeded, much like most of my calls for moves by the teams I root for (see above). The 2010 season was a pivotal one for Smith's Bears, after missing the playoffs for three straight years following the 2006 season which culminated in the Super Bowl loss to the Colts*. The Bears pulled together to save Smith by winning the NFC North with an 11-5 record, and winning in the Divisional Round of the playoffs by ousting the Seattle Seahawks. An NFC Championship Game with the Green Bay Packers loomed ... and Cutler "got hurt." Of course he did. Somehow, it appeared that the Bears didn't even have a backup quarterback on the roster, or any player beyond Cutler who had ever played quarterback. Sure, Caleb Hanie was "listed" as a quarterback, but anyone who watched that game knows the Bears were screwed when Cutler "went down**." He just stood there, on the sidelines ... looking like he didn't care ... as the Packers held on to beat the Bears. The would go on to beat the Steelers in the Super Bowl.

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Cutler's career in Chicago since then has been pretty bad overall. His numbers have been intermittently good, and they have been stellar compared with the history of Bears quarterbacks, but the results for the team just haven't been there. All through it, Cutler has pretty much looked like this:

Smokin' Jay Cutler just don't give a ...

The team's defense got old after the 2010 season. Lovie Smith, master of leading an underachieving team, led the team to two more underachieving years, milking out the last two decent years the defense had in 2011 and 2012. The crazy thing is he still almost saved his job in 2012 by getting to 10-6, only to miss the playoffs anyway, in a tie breaker. He was fired, and then came Trestman. That lasted two years, and in came John Fox. Two years into that, and the Bears just finished 3-13. The last time the Bears were that bad? Well, it depends on how you define it, but it's been awhile. The last time they finished with only 3 wins in a full (non-strike) season was 1973, when they went 3-11 (in a 14 game season). The last time they lost 13 games in a season was back in 1969, when they went 1-13 the year before the NFC was even founded. That year was also the last time they had a winning percentage as bad as their .188 winning percentage this last year.

Needless to say, things aren't trending in the right direction. The Bears resigned Cutler before the 2014 season, coming off his best statistical year in year one of the Marc Trestman disaster. It was a huge deal, or at least it was reported to be. Seven Years. $126.7 million dollars. That's $126,700,000. That's a lot of money. Many people have torn into the Bears over signing Cutler to this contract, but let me ask you this: have you ever looked at a list of starting Bears quarterbacks in the last 30 years? No? Well, good news my friend. I'm here to help you. Beyond Cutler, here you go (starting with the most recent non-Cutler starter, going back to the Super Bowl year of 1985):

• Brian Hoyer
• Matt Barkley
• Jimmy Clausen
• Josh McCown
• Jason Campbell
• Caleb Hanie
• Todd Collins (Note: from Collins up on this list are the Quarterbacks who have started for the Bears in place of Cutler. Because he's been injured that much. Another factor to consider.)
• Kyle Orton
• Rex Grossman
• Brian Griese
• Craig Krenzel
• Chad Hutchinson
• Jonathan Quinn
• Kordell Stewart
• Chris Chandler
• Jim Miller
• Henry Burris
• Shane Matthews
• Cade McNown
• Erik Kramer
• Steve Stenstrom
• Moses Moreno
• Rick Mirer
• Dave Krieg
• Steve Walsh
• Jim Harbaugh
• Peter Tom Willis
• Will Furrer
• Mike Tomczak
• Jim McMahon
• Mike Hohensee
• Steve Bradley
• Steve Fuller
• Doug Flutie

That is 34 quarterbacks, beyond Cutler, in 31 years. That, my friends, is terrible. And many of the quarterbacks listed above were terrible. In fact, you probably have never heard of some of them. Beyond that, I probably could have made up a name, slipped it in there, and most Bears fans wouldn't be able to tell. In fact, I might have done that. Or not. But here's another way to look at the Bears' quarterbacking situation over the last 31 years. This is the list of seasons in which the Bears only started one quarterback for all 16 games during that time period:

• 1991 - Jim Harbaugh
• 1995 - Erik Kramer
• 2006 - Rex Grossman
• 2009 - Jay Cutler

And...that's a wrap. Four seasons out of 31. Hold on, I'm curious about something...

• 1986, 1989, 1993-2009, 2012, 2014-2016

That's the list of seasons, since 1985, in which the Green Bay Packers have started only one quarterback for all 16 games. That is 23 of 31 seasons. Of course, I cherry picked the Packers, due to their stability at quarterback between Favre (he accounted for every year in that streak from 1993 until 2007) and Rodgers (every year in that streak since 2007). But it serves to prove the point: the Bears have had really crappy quarterbacks, and have had to shuffle them in and out  to injury and ineffectiveness at a maddening rate. Imagine if there was a major business that shifted managers in and out at that rate. Would we be surprised they had gone 31 years without being the top in their field? Ultimately, that's where the Bears have been. 

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And that, finally, brings me to my point on this post (I know, I'm killing all 1.75 of you with my long preambles. But I'm writing again!). My purpose in this postis to ask a simple question, and attempt to give a not so simple answer. Here is the simple question:

Should the Chicago Bears keep Jay Cutler or cut Jay Cutler?

That question is valid because of the structure of that huge aforementioned deal. There was $54 million guaranteed in that contract, but now, with the first three years in the past, there is next to nothing left to hit the cap. If the Bears cut Cutler this year there would be $2,000,000 worth of dead money on the cap this year, and $1,000,000 next year. They would save a total of $30,000,000 beyond that against the cap by cutting him. The contract was one of the rare good moves the Bears have made recently because it got them a few more years to see if Cutler would put all the pieces together, all while giving them a great deal of flexibility to move on with next to no dead money on the cap once they got through three years of the contact. And so, from a financial perspective, it could easily be argued that yes, the Bears should cut him.

But the Bears already project to have just over $54 million in open cap space heading into this offseason. That is the eighth most in the league, and plenty of money to do quite a bit without touching Cutler. Because of that I would argue that, at a minimum, they should hold on to Cutler until the last possible moment, before his roster bonus is set to kick in. That gives them maximum flexibility to make the decision.

But it doesn't tell you what decision they should make. Should the Bears keep Cutler for next year? Ultimately, that comes down to what their other options are, and how they rank vis a vi Cutler. If I were to make a very quick ranking of NFL QBs by tier, this is how I would do it:

• Tier One: Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers
• Tier Two: Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson
• Tier Three: Derek Carr, Cam Newton, Phillip Rivers, Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins
• Tier Four: Matt Stafford, Jamis Winston, Andy Dalton, Marcus Mariota, Eli Manning
• Tier Five: Carson Palmer, Sam Bradford, Ryan Tannehill, Alex Smith, Joe Flacco
• Tier Six: Tyrod Taylor, Carson Wentz, Blake Bortles, Trevor Siemian
• Tier Seven: Whatever/Whoever starts for the Browns, 49ers, or Rams, along with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brock Osweiler

Now, I left Cutler out of there (along with the Matt Barkley/Brian Hoyer pu pu platter). Where would you realistically put him on that list? I feel very confident he's above tiers seven and six. Banged up? He fits in the fifth tier for me, but healthy he easily makes it into the fourth tier for me. And that is where this becomes difficult. The Bears have a tier four/tier five QB on what amounts to a year to year contract, with no long term commitment. They have the money to spend, so it's not like they have to cut him to pay other players. The question becomes can the Bears feasibly get a QB who will be able to play their way into the top three tiers?

Realistically, the best chance they have for that is to draft one. The league is trending younger, overall, and getting a young QB who can become the next Dak Prescott, or even Derek Carr or Kirk Cousins (meaning they would take a few years to get there) is the best direction, if you can pull it off. Teams don't trade franchise quarterbacks, and if they seem like they are about to it's probably a bit of an illusion (in fact, Cutler is exhibit A in that regard!). A name often floated, in the opposite direction, is Tony Romo. But Romo's injury history isn't any better at this point that Cutler's, and his history of winning isn't any better either. Besides that, Romo would cost you more money, plus draft picks Cutler is virtually free to the Bears at this point. Finally, best case scenario, does Romo crack the third tier at this point in his career? History says no. How about paying multiple first round picks for Jimmy Garoppolo? Given how well Matt Cassell and Brian Hoyer (among others) careers have worked out after they left their backup role in New England for other jobs, I'm not willing risk that much if I'm the Bears.

In a weak QB draft, the Bears' best bet might be to bring Cutler back, then, and draft for depth at other positions. Take a swing on a QB in the middle rounds and hope you get lucky. Build the offense around timing routes and Jordan Howard, and focus on improving an already improving offensive line and defense. Until week 17 of the last seasons I hadn't seen the Bears give up on a game. They were notorious for playing tough for a half and then getting outclassed in the second half. They didn't, if I dare say, look that far away. The NFL is designed for quick turnarounds, and Cutler may in fact give the Bears their best chance of that. As long as they don't mortgage their future for that hope, I'm fine with it. And Cutler's unique contract structure makes it so that they can keep him another year... or two ... or three ... or four, without mortgaging anything. And at the end of the day, that's why we should still care about Jay Cutler ... even if Smokin' Jay doesn't ever look like he cares back. 

* As an aside, the Bears Super Bowl loss stings less to me now than it did even a year ago. We can all thank the Cubs for that. Thanks Cubs!

** That, in large part, is what contributes to the deep disdain fans feel for Cutler. He just stands there and doesn't look invested. It is the "Smokin' Jay" persona that spawned so many memes. Come to find out, Cutler really was hurt in the NFC title game, asked to go back in and was told an unequivocal no by medical staff. But he just stood there, didn't look like he was in pain, and didn't look like he cared. Inside, he might have been dying. He might have been in significant pain, and been being eaten up by the fact that his team was so close to the Super Bowl and he couldn't help them. We'll never know. Ultimately, however, it was Lovie Smith who screwed him the most by refusing to rule him out in some misguided attempt to confuse the Packers. When your coach is playing games, mid game, with injuries hoping that throws the opponent off their game ... how did we not fire that man earlier? Please, tell me? It's one of the biggest mysteries of my life.